NFL Picks

Barkley’s full-game projections vary for Super Bowl LIX. The majority of models come in below his rushing total of 113.5 yards, with some forecasts as low as 89 yards. There are, however, a couple predicting 120-plus. My number comes out to 103 yards. Even factoring Barkley’s average 1Q output against his current full-game rushing total for SBLIX, you get a projection just north of 22 yards in the first quarter. When plugging in my projection, that 1Q tally drops to around 20.5 yards. The puffed-up rushing yards market for the Eagles’ top weapon is giving seven yards of headroom for the Under on Barkley’s rushing yards in the opening quarter of Super Bowl LIX.

I'm expecting Mahomes to attack with short and intermediate passes early and often to move the KC offense against Philly. The Eagles defense was excellent against the run and limiting deep passes during the regular season, and Mahomes also finished the regular season with a career-low 6.8 yards per attempt and career-high 67.5 completion percentage. More completions for shorter gains is exactly what we’re looking for from Mahomes in Super Bowl 59.

Given Hurts has scored a rushing touchdown in 70.5% of his games this season and the “Brotherly Shove” moves the chains or breaks the plane at better than 80%, the odds are definitely leaning toward another Big Game TD from the Eagles QB. You can try to squeeze all the extra value out of this prop market by taking alternative TD bets — like Hurts to score two or more touchdowns at +550 or Hurts to score a first-half TD at +210 — but I’m happy keeping it simple with his “touchdown anytime” odds.

I bet this one in the NFC title game and he didn’t get there. I’m going back to the well. The Eagles need to get the ball in the hands of their best player any way they can. Barkley’s pass catching hasn’t been needed much in recent weeks, but projections all above 13 yards through the air with some close to 21 yards. The Chiefs bring pressure and Barkley is a viable checkdown option. He’s capable of putting this prop to bed in one catch and run.

Gray had five TDs this season and a career high 40 receptions. And those came with Kelce in the lineup. Reid is finding ways to use him, we know all eyes will be on No. 87, so Gray could get some good looks. And don’t be shocked if we see him get a carry. We saw some unique formations from KC, with TEs flanking the QBs. Philly has given up some big numbers to TEs the past two games.

Hurts has rumbled for 64 rushing touchdowns in his career, with several of those scores powered by the vaunted “Tush Push”. This year, he scored at least one rushing touchdown in 12 in his 17 appearances during the regular season and playoffs and is coming off a massive day in the NFC title game. Hurts now has two weeks to strengthen that knee, which means the Kansas City Chiefs not only have to worry about those short-yardage spots but also Hurts breaking off big runs for touchdowns as well. He had a 44-yard sprinting strike versus Los Angeles in the Divisional Round before getting hurt and when the Eagles and Chiefs met in Super Bowl LVII two years ago, Hurts almost single-handedly won the game.

Marquise "Hollywood" Brown has made his name in the NFL by breaking off big plays. Unfortunately for him, the Philadelphia Eagles have allowed the fewest 20+ yard pass plays in football this year (35). Brown has played four games this season, playoffs included, and has yet to break off a 20+ yard grab. In fact, the Kansas City Chiefs WR tallied only three receptions on seven targets through two postseason contests with a mere 35 yards to his credit.

Saquon Barkley's video game-like rushing numbers have come at a cost, as he's hardly been used in the Philadelphia Eagles passing game as of late. He's been targeted more than two times just twice over his last eight games, and only once did he record a 10+ yard reception in that span. The Kansas City Chiefs have been as good as anyone at bottling up running backs as pass-catchers, allowing the fourth-fewest receiving yards to the position.

Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce steal the headlines, but defense has been the Kansas City Chiefs' calling card this season. This unit ranked T-9 in the regular season in yards allowed per play and fourth in points allowed per game. Not to be outdone, the Philadelphia Eagles ranked first in yards allowed per play and second in points allowed per game, and they've been just as stingy in the postseason. This total is far too tall, so I'll gladly take the Over.

This is the same pricing as the BUF/KC game. It’s a 49-point total with both teams’ implied team totals above 23.5, per the odds. This is one of the more entertaining prop bets as it keeps you cheering for offense throughout the game. The Chiefs failed to score 30+ points in any regular season game but it looks like Andy Reid’s offense was holding back in the first 18 weeks. It’s a pass-first offense that has made 11 red-zone trips over two playoff games. The Eagles offense has the passing game back on track and Jalen Hurts will be better after the extended rest. This will likely be a one-score game and a 24-17 finish would seem unlikely with both of these offenses. This prop hit six minutes into the third quarter of Super Bowl LVII. It might be one of the more entertaining, both-side props to bet.

The Eagles lead the NFL in defensive success rate and have allowed just 16.4 ppg since the start of October. They been excellent against both the run and the pass, ranking first in the league in both defensive dropback EPA and defensive rush EPA over that span. If you omit Week 18 when the Chiefs rested most starters, they've allowed just 18.4 ppg in the regular season and playoffs. The Chiefs have been stout against the run and while their secondary struggled down the stretch, it's improved since CB Jaylen Watson returned from the IR. Both offenses are also methodical and prefer to chew up the clock. KC finished the regular season 23rd in the league in yards per play (5.1) while Mahomes was 41st out of 43 qualifying QBs in average intended air yards (6.3). Meanwhile, Philly runs the ball at the highest rate in the league.

Goedert had an injury-plagued regular season but the veteran is an important cog in Philadelphia's aerial attack when healthy. The sure-handed TE has been reliable in the clutch and has the highest target share on the team on third down. Goedert had seven catches for 85 yards against Washington in the NFC Championship game despite playing through an ankle injury. He has now logged 55+ receiving yards in three of his last four games and the extra time off before the Super Bowl will help him heal up. The Chiefs surrendered a league-high 70.1 receiving yards per game to tight ends during the regular season. Steve Spagnuolo's defense blitzes at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL which will result in Hurts throwing the ball more to shorter pass options like Goedert.

It's not often you can get a QB for MVP as the No.3 betting favorite, especially one coming off a three-rushing-TD performance in the Conference Finals. Hurts will likely have his center, Landon Dickerson, healthy which only helps when he's piling up short-yardage TDs. I think the Eagles have the better roster and are my pick in LIX, but I want to have some shares of Hurts for MVP at this price because of the number. The passing game is back on track and he will be as healthy as he's been since mid-December on February 9. If Saquon Barkley can score three TDs, but Hurts can match that, it takes away from the RB. Short-yardage, game on the line, it's Hurts' ball 99% of the time. The Chiefs' defensive game plan starts with Barkley; Hurts can take advantage of that. 

Projects for 51 rushing yards on just over nine carries. The extra rest will help and so will being in a game a lot closer than the conference game vs. Washington. There is still a bit of a discount on this number as it closed at 39.5 in the Wild Card Round and then 41.5 vs. the Rams in the Divisional Round. The injury discount from last week is still lingering in this number which I'd expect to close on the other side of 40. Possibly more designed runs after concerns about his health in the winter months are a path, too. Everything is on the table for the final game where he had 15 carries and 70 yards vs. KC in 2022. Gainwell's concussion could also pave the way for an extra carry or two for the QB who finished the year fourth in designed-run yards and sixth in scramble yards while missing some time with a concussion.  

He’s been a postseason presence in his three years for the Chiefs, tallying seven total sacks in nine playoff games. The Super Bowl LIX projections call for 2.5 sacks from Kansas City and Karlaftis looks like he’ll be responsible for at least one of them, forecasted for 0.7 sacks – the highest sack projection for any defensive player on the field. A concern for the Eagles heading into Super Bowl LIX is the health of the offensive line. While there are two weeks to heal before February 9, all eyes are on the knee of tackle Landon Dickerson and the aching back of center Cam Jurgens. If Philly’s pass-pro isn’t 100%, it could be a long day for Hurts when he’s forced to drop back.

Hunt drew 32 targets for 23 receptions in 13 regular season showings, an average of almost 1.8 catches per contest. He recorded two or more receptions in six of those games. His player projections for Super Bowl LIX range from 1.1 to 2.0 with my number at 1.4 grabs. Let’s not forget that Hunt was a dual-threat RB in his first two seasons in Kansas City, catching 79 passes in 27 regular season games for a collective 833 receiving yards. That includes 378 yards through the air with Mahomes under center in 2018 before he was released by the team due to domestic abuse. Hunt is just as comfortable catching the ball as he is carrying it.

Hurts has yet to throw a pick in the playoffs and he finished the regular season with only five interceptions. However, his passing prowess take a nosedive when under duress and KC’s blitz-happy schemes drum up the fifth highest pressure rate per dropback. Hurts goes from the 10^th best QB rating at PFF when kept clean to 58^th under pressure. His completion rate sinks to 44.4% in those pressure situations and he’s thrown the 12^th most “danger plays” (a risky pass that could have resulted in a turnover), according to PlayerProfiler. Player projections range from 0.4 to 0.6 interceptions from Hurts with the bulk of those models sitting at 0.5 or higher. With Over 0.5 INTs paying out as high as +128, I’ll bank on a Big Game blunder from the Eagles QB.

There are plenty of ways Jalen Hurts can stay under this number. The best way to play defense against Patrick Mahomes is to bleed the clock and keep the Chiefs' offense on the sideline. The Eagles are so run-oriented, that they have the ability to do just that, and if they are playing with a lead, the run game could get extended run. If the Eagles are forced into playing from behind, Spagnuolo's pass rush will pressure Hurts into mistakes and the defense will keep Hurts under this total. 

Brown is a matchup nightmare, and I fully expect this total to climb leading into Super Bowl Sunday. This is tied for his second-lowest total in this market dating back to the regular season, and he turned his eight targets into six receptions and 96 yards against the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship Game with just two targets in the second half. I don’t envision the Eagles offense being able to take its foot off the pedal against Kansas City, and Brown should have opportunities to pad his stat line with the Chiefs keyed on Philly running back Saquon Barkley. Of course, Brown also paced all pass-catchers in ESPN's receiver scores while ranking third in PFF receiving grade among wideouts.

With a two-week break before Super Bowl LIX, this is the healthiest Jalen Hurts is going to be in a long, long while. The Eagles dual-threat QB was nursing a tender knee in the NFC Championship and didn't break any big runs in that blowout win. However, Hurts has rushed for 36 yards or more in 10 of his last 12 games overall and will need to be a big part of this rushing playbook to edge the Chiefs. Kansas City will also come with plenty of pass pressure and Hurts will be forced to scramble. He put up 70 yards rushing against Spags' defense in Super Bowl LVII and early projections for Super Bowl LIX call for close to 43 yards on the ground from Hurts on Feb. 9.

The rookie wideout shined in the AFC Championship game and took two more carries for 16 yards. This is not on offense with an alpha back and the WR has had multiple carries in four of his last six games. Running into that Eagles front seven is a tough grind so Matt Nagy and Andy Reid might have to get a little more creative in their game plan vs. this defense. Rashee Rice had two carries in last year's finals for the Chiefs and Skyy Moore got running work vs. the Eagles in 2022. Getting their fastest players involved in the running game is a staple of this offense and expect the 4.21-40 Worthy to see one or two carries.  

With the opening line of Kansas City -1.5, there’s a nasty half-point hook on the favorite on the other side of the key number of -1 — the seventh-most frequent margin in the NFL. You can avoid all this ATS nonsense and simply take KC to win outright, shopping for the lowest moneyline on the board. As of Sunday’s SBLIX openers, that’s -120. Kansas City brings a lot to the table, owning the coaching, experience, and quarterback edge over the Eagles, who the Chiefs defeated 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII. There will be interest in the underdog’s moneyline — there always is when you have short spreads. You may see the Chiefs' outright price shorten by a couple of cents at some point in the next 14 days, but you can always bet Kansas City again at the discount later in the week.