The Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow is the sixth signature event of the PGA Tour season, but it's one that doesn't include World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler.
Rory McIlroy has an excellent track record at the event and is the betting favorite in the Wells Fargo Championship odds followed by Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, Wyndham Clark, and Patrick Cantlay.
Our top longshots and sleeper picks are looking further down the golf odds lists with our free golf picks for this week’s Wells Fargo Championship.
2024 Wells Fargo Championship sleeper picks
- Chris Kirk to win outright (+7,000 at FanDuel)
- Lucas Glover to win outright (+11,000 at FanDuel)
- Jake Knapp to win outright (+12,500 at Caesars)
- Chris Kirk Top 30 (-115 at DraftKings)
- Lucas Glover Top 30 (+110 at BetRivers)
- Jake Knapp Top 40 (-125 at BetRivers)
Picks were made on May 6, 2024.
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2024 Wells Fargo Championship and Quail Hollow Club key stats
Quail Hollow Club is a true test, as the 7,558-yard Par 71 annually plays as one of the most difficult tracks on the PGA Tour. There were just seven players to go double-digits under par last year and Rory McIlroy won in 2021 with a 10-under score.
The course history is also lean because of a 2016 redesign and it being out of action in 2022, 2020, and 2017, with Quail Hollow playing host to the Presidents Cup in 2022 and the PGA Championship in 2017.
Only five holes played under par last season and the three-hole finish dubbed The Green Mile is particularly daunting with 368 bogeys or worse across four rounds. Taking advantage of the three Par 5s is a must because eight of the 11 Par 4s are over 450 yards and No. 5 is a 449-yard Par 4. Add three of the four Par 3s stretched over 190 yards and solid long-iron play and distance off the tee are crucial.
A tidy short game has also been part and parcel to success at Quail Hollow. Max Homa finished third in true strokes gained putting to win in 2019, and McIlroy and Wyndham Clark both finished third in their respective victories in 2021 and 2023. Jason Day finished second in the metric to win in 2018 and Justin Thomas finished fourth in the 2017 PGA Championship here.
Still, distance off the tee has proven to be a huge boost and none of the highlighted past five winners have finished outside the Top 12 in true strokes gained tee-to-green.
- Strokes gained tee-to-green
- Driving distance
- Strokes gained putting
- Strokes gained approach
- Scrambling, strokes gained around-the-green
2024 Wells Fargo Championship sleeper predictions
Chris Kirk to win outright (+7,000)
Chris Kirk is heating up with a T16 finish at the Masters and T10 last time out at the RBC Heritage. He ranks seventh in true strokes gained tee-to-green and 14th in true strokes gained around-the-green in this field across his past 20 measured rounds, and he was also fifth in true strokes gained putting at Augusta National.
He’s made the cut in four of five trips to Quail Hollow and I’m expecting another strong showing this week and will be backing him to finish Top 30 when the odds are released. We’re also adding a solid number here with Kirk as short as +5,000 to win at BetMGM. There’s a positive expected value of 42% attached to the +7,000 FanDuel price.
Pick: Chris Kirk to win outright (+7,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Chris Kirk Top 30 Top 30 (-115 at DraftKings)
Lucas Glover to win outright (+11,000)
The veteran has a win on his resume at Quail Hollow in the 2011 Wells Fargo before the 2016 course renovation and he’s played the weekend in eight of his past nine events while gaining true strokes on approach in each.
Additionally, while Lucas Glover doesn’t mash it off the tee, he’s an elite iron player and his inconsistent short game is priced into these long FanDuel odds.
We’re also landing a nice edge with Caesars hanging a +7,000 price, and compared to the +11,000 FanDuel number, we’re landing a positive expected value of 55%. I’ll also be circling back to bet Glover to finish Top 40 once the market is available.
Pick: Lucas Glover to win outright (+11,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Lucas Glover Top 30 (+110 at BetRivers)
Jake Knapp to win outright (+12,500)
The PGA Tour rookie has already won this season and he held the 36-hole lead last week at the Byron Nelson. Jake Knapp is long off the tee and ranks fifth in true strokes gained on approach in this field across his past 34 measured rounds.
He’s also gained true strokes on the greens in consecutive events and we’d be landing a much shorter number if he didn’t have an underwhelming Sunday last week. Plus, he still finished solo eighth at the Byron Nelson for his fourth Top 10 of the season.
I also recommend backing Knapp in the Top-40 market once odds are available and this is another example of where shopping for the best number helps. Knapp is as short as +10,000 through DraftKings, so you’re adding a positive expected value of 26% with the +12,500 Caesars odds.
Pick: Jake Knapp to win outright (+12,500 at Caesars, 0.25 units)
Pick: Jake Knapp Top 40 (-125 at BetRivers)
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