Pacers vs Knicks NBA Player Props Today: Time for McBride to Shine?

Prop bet #1: Tyrese Haliburton Over 8.5 assists

Tyrese Haliburton is not playing at the same level he was earlier this season and his assists prop has dropped significantly as a result. During the NBA In-Season Tournament, we were seeing totals of 11.5 and 12.5 — a prop that's now down to 8.5, albeit with heavy juice on the Over.

He's ailing with a back injury and while he is still playing, it's affecting his ability to score. For the Indiana Pacers to have any hope in this series, they need him to generate offense, and while he may not be doing that himself, he can still be extremely effective as a playmaker. In Game 1, he only scored six points but had eight assists on 15 potential assists.

The New York Knicks don't have a point-of-attack defender who can lock up Haliburton even if he is a step slower with the back injury. Donte DiVincenzo is the primary defender on Haliburton and he's an average defender at best.

The strength of the Knicks' defense is on the interior and on the wings; it's why Tyrese Maxey had such big games against them as well. The Knicks struggle to contain a fast, shifty point guard.

This assists prop will also receive a slight boost on Wednesday as Mitchell Robinson is out for injury management. With him sidelined, it gives the Knicks one less rim protector that could disrupt easy baskets/assists.

Haliburton is projected to have 10.1 assists in Game 2, which allows us to price the Over 8.5 assists at -211 despite Caesars listing it at -151. If you can find a 9.5 that's longer than +110, I'd hit the button on that, too.

Tyrese Haliburton prop: Over 8.5 assists (-151 at Caesars)

Prop bet #2: Andrew Nembhard Under 11.5 points

Andrew Nembhard finds himself in an interesting spot in this series because I believe multiple angles could see his minutes fade for someone else. We have an edge on this Under 11.5 points prop even if he sees his normal minutes, but I think he could be in for a decreased load.

Nembhard is the best perimeter defender on the Pacers and he was given the assignment of guarding Jalen Brunson in Game 1. Brunson scored 43 points while only making one three-pointer. If he can't slow down Brunson from scoring in the mid-range and at the rim, is there any value in giving Nembhard his usual allotment of minutes?

His offensive game is very limited and his jump shot is incredibly inconsistent. He's in the game for defense but if his defense isn't slowing Brunson down, it wouldn't be shocking to see Rick Carlisle opt for more offense. The Pacers bench was very productive in Game 1 and we could see more minutes shift towards TJ McConnell or even Obi Toppin.

Another factor to consider here with Nembhard and his minutes is that while he's the primary defender on Brunson, the Knicks superstar is also elite at drawing fouls. Nembhard was in foul trouble in Game 1 and that could be a common theme in the series.

He's projected to score 10.2 points, which allows us to price the Under 11.5 points at -167.

Andrew Nembhard prop: Under 11.5 points (-125 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Miles McBride Over 5.5 points

If you check his two most recent box scores, there's no way you'd be interested in betting on the Over for Miles McBride's points prop, but as the odds adjust to his decreased role, I think you have a nice edge on the Over 5.5 points.

The Knicks are coming off a series against the 76ers in which their starters essentially played the entirety of multiple games. In Game 1 against the Pacers on Monday, the starters once again played north of 40 minutes as the Knicks squeaked out a victory.

Do I expect Tom Thibodeau to change his philosophy and suddenly begin giving the bench players a ton of minutes? No, but with Bojan Bogdanovic out and Mitchell Robinson also sidelined, McBride is the only option off the bench that Thibodeau fully trusts, which should slightly help his minutes.

I say slightly because it's all we need to establish an even bigger edge over this prop. The key to establishing an edge is that he's now being priced as someone with a decreased role, so even around 16 minutes will be plenty to give us the advantage we need.

I also like that this is down to 5.5 from 9.5 just a couple of games ago. With the total sitting at 5.5, you open the door to a couple of made threes pushing you Over the number, which is in play for a shooter like McBride. It also helps that role players almost always shoot it better at home in the playoffs.

He's projected to score 7.2 points in Game 2, which allows us to price the Over 5.5 at -161. 

Miles McBride prop: Over 5.5 points (-125 at BetMGM)