2025 NBA Championship Odds: Thunder in Pole Position as Round 2 Tips Off

The Oklahoma City Thunder have emerged as the new favorite in the chase for the 2025 NBA Championship.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
May 5, 2025 • 09:38 ET • 5 min read
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) moves the ball around Denver Nuggets guard Christian Braun (0).
Photo By - Imagn Images. Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) moves the ball around Denver Nuggets guard Christian Braun (0).

Say what you want about the regular season but there’s no denying the NBA playoffs are one of the most enjoyable postseasons in professional sports. That also makes them one of the more exciting tournaments to bet on.

Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs is now underway and there have already been plenty of attention-grabbing moments including the Timberwolves handing the Lakers a first-round exit, the Thunder sweeping the Grizzlies, and Aaron Gordon's epic last-second dunk to seal a win over the Clippers.  

Here’s a quick look at the betting favorites to win the NBA title as well as my NBA picks and predictions based on the latest NBA odds.

🏆 NBA Championship odds

Odds as of 5-5.

Who will win the NBA Championship?

Celtics Oklahoma City Thunder (+135)

The Thunder’s 68 wins put them in good company entering the NBA playoffs. Only five other NBA teams have boasted a higher win percentage than OKC’s .829 win rate and four of those clubs went on to claim the NBA Championship. Oklahoma City’s +12.8 net rating is second all-time behind only the 72-win Chicago Bulls. 

Celtics Boston Celtics (+180)

Winning back-to-back NBA titles is an accomplishment reserved for the elite, with Curry’s Warriors, LeBron’s Heat, and Kobe’s Lakers as the most recent franchises to pull it off. Can Jayson Tatum put his name among those legends?

Boston is the No. 2 seed in the East but with the second most tickets and second highest handle to win the Larry O’Brien, books have the Celtics as big faves to make it back to the finals.

Knicks Cleveland Cavaliers (+650)

For the top seed in the Eastern Conference, oddsmakers have little faith in the Cavaliers when it comes to winning the NBA title. The Cavs went 11-5 SU against the four other teams below them in the standings (1-3 vs. Indiana) and entered the postseason as the top-ranked offense in the NBA.

2025 NBA Championship odds contenders

Warriors Golden State Warriors (+2500)

Golden State is another team whose odds to win the NBA title are a little puffed up due to action. The Warriors were as big as +2500 and the move to add Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline put the Dubs back in the hunt. As it stands, another Warriors title would be a terrible result for bookmakers. Golden State enters the playoffs as the No. 7 seed (after winning in the Play-In Tournament) but was in contention for the No. 3 seed down the home stretch.

2025 NBA Championship odds live long shots

Nuggets Denver Nuggets (+3000)

The Nuggets are a threat, as long as Nikola Jokic is on the floor. Denver’s title pursuit hit an unexpected speed bump at the end of the schedule with the team surprisingly canning head coach Mike Malone. I mean, at this point in the season the bus kind of drives itself. But you now have an interim coach in David Adelman having to navigate the playoff waters.

Knicks New York Knicks (+5000)

There’s a notable gap between the Cavs and Celtics… and then the rest of the East. The Knicks were the best of the rest, finishing third in the conference. Jalen Brunson is a proven playoff performer, who can keep his team competitive, but New York was a combined 0-8 SU versus Cleveland and Boston this season. That’s a big hump to get over if the Knicks want to make the finals.

📈 2025 NBA Finals odds over time

Here's a visual representation of how the NBA championship odds have evolved over the course of this season.

☘️ My NBA Championship pick: Boston Celtics

As a Lakers fan, this pick hurts my soul. There’s a reason bookies are giving Boston the benefit of the doubt with his price. The Celtics’ seeding was of no concern to Joe Mazzulla’s team. Getting to the tournament healthy and with all key pieces intact was. Jaylen Brown has had an extended break to rest his wonky knee and the C’s playoff experience will pay off over the course of a seven-game series. Light the cigars and hang another banner in the rafters of the Garden.

💰 Sportsbook betting splits and insights

  • The Lakers (14.7%), Celtics (13.2%), and Nuggets (10.5%) have the highest NBA Championship ticket percentage.
  • The Thunder (18.9%), Celtics (17.3%), and Lakers (13.6%) have the highest NBA Championship ticket handle percentage.
  • The sportsbook considers the Lakers, Timberwolves, and Warriors its biggest liabilities. 

All data courtesy of BetMGM.

👑 2025 NBA Finals MVP odds

Player bet365
Thunder Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +140
Celtics Jayson Tatum +260
Cavaliers Donovan Mitchell +750
Timberwolves Anthony Edwards +1500
Celtics Jaylen Brown +1800
Warriors Stephen Curry +3000
Celtics Kristaps Porzingis +3500
Nuggets Nikola Jokic +3500
Cavaliers Evan Mobley +4000
Cavaliers Darius Garland +5000

The 2024-25 season was a coming out party for Shai Gilgeous Alexander, whose prolific scoring and prodigious playmaking powered the Thunder to the best record in the NBA. The three-time All-Star led the league with 32.7 points per game and scored 50 points or more three times over a seven-game stretch. His ability to score any time against anyone has OKC favored to be the last team standing in June.

Visit our NBA Finals MVP Odds page for more detailed analysis.

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🏅 NBA conference winner odds

Western Conference odds

  • Thunder: -225
  • Timberwolves: +425
  • Warriors: +850
  • Nuggets: +1000

Eastern Conference odds

  • Celtics: -165
  • Cavaliers: +210
  • Pacers: +1100
  • Knicks: +1400

NBA Championship Odds FAQs

Pages related to this topic

Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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