The Boston Celtics' one-sided win in Game 1 included a dash of “revenge” after losing to the Miami Heat in last year’s conference finals. Boston used the extra animosity to cover as 14.5-point home chalk.
My Heat vs Celtics predictions expect Boston's scoring to be spread around in Game 2 tonight, much like on Sunday, and Jrue Holiday is the one getting the spotlight in my NBA picks for this April 24 matchup.
Heat vs Celtics predictions
My best bet
Jrue Holiday Over 10.5 Points (-107 BetRivers)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Boston Celtics had six players score in double figures during their squash of the Miami Heat in Game 1. Jrue Holiday wasn’t one of them.
Holiday — who averages 12.5 points per game on the season — tallied only six on 2-for-8 shooting (both makes were 3-pointers) and took on more of a stopper role, pouring his energy into chasing down Miami’s top perimeter threats.
With Boston building a massive lead (got as big as 34 points in the second half), there was little pressure for Holiday to press the issue on offense, leading to his lowest scoring output in a postseason game in four years.
While the Game 2 spread calls for another strong effort from the Celtics (-14.5), Miami is expected to keep this one a little more competitive — especially when you consider Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra and his infamous game-to-game adjustments.
Holiday doesn’t face much push back in terms of defenders. Miami will be throwing bodies like Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, and Caleb Martin at him, and the Heat defense will be all-consumed with slowing down superstar scorers Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown without the services of Jimmy Butler, who is still out with an injury. The potential for points is very much there.
Holiday has had success scoring against Miami this season, posting efforts of 15, 17, and 17 points in the three meetings prior to the playoff opener. Player projections for Game 2 aren’t that bullish on the veteran guard, but they do all call for 11 or more points, with a ceiling of 13+ from one forecast.
My number comes out just shy of 12 points from Holiday, which is more than enough to clear his dwindling player prop total of 10.5 points. That number falls on the shorter end for a player usually drawing Over/Under props around 12.5 points.
Given that projection, the Over 10.5 points from Holiday should be priced in the -133 range. But if you shop around on Wednesday morning, you can find that same offering as low as -107.
Heat vs Celtics same-game parlay (SGP)
Jrue Holiday Over 10.5 points
Jaime Jaquez Under 14.5 points
Celtics moneyline
Holiday has had success scoring against the Heat this season, and his player models are all north of 11 points for Game 2.
Jaime Jaquez has been huge for Miami with Butler out of action, but his prop totals are spiking too high at this current mark. Triple-J is forecasted for around 11 points tonight.
Boston made backers very nervous in the fourth quarter of Game 1 and it has a tendency to flop as a big fave. So we’ll play it safe and sprinkle the moneyline into this parlay for a little extra pop.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Heat vs Celtics odds
Heat vs Celtics live odds
Get the latest Heat vs Celtics NBA playoff odds for Game 2
Heat vs Celtics opening odds
- Spread: Miami +14.5 (-108) | Boston -14.5 (-102)
- Moneyline: Miami +701 | Boston -970
- Over/Under: Over 208 (-106) | Under 208 (-106)
Heat vs Celtics spread and Over/Under analysis
• After the Celtics stomped the Heat in Game 1 (and held a 34-point lead at one point), some books opened Boston as big as -15.5 for Wednesday’s Game 2. However, early play was on Miami, and the industry consensus sits at Celtics -14.5 as of Wednesday morning.
• The Celtics swept the season series 3-0 SU (1-2 ATS) and added a fourth win in Game 1 last weekend.
• Wednesday’s Over/Under total hit the board as tall as 208 points — the exact combined number of Game 1, which played Under the closing total of 210. Early action came in on the Under, and the Game 2 total is now down to as low as 203 points.
• Covers Consensus data shows 52% of picks taking that pile of points with the visiting Heat. As for the total, consensus says 59% of picks are coming in on the Over with this short total.
Heat vs Celtics trend
NBA Playoff totals of 205 points or less have produced a 19-28 Over/Under record since 2015-16 (59.6% Under), including a 3-7 O/U count for those sub-205 totals since the 2020-21 postseason. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Celtics.
Heat vs Celtics game info
| Location: | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 4-24-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT, truTV |
Heat vs Celtics latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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