Nuggets vs Timberwolves Prop Picks and Best Bets: Minnesota Sells Out With Season on the Line

Prop bet #1: Joker Poker

Timberwolves lead assistant Micah Nori said in his in-game interview at the end of the first quarter that their goal as a team was to slow down Nikola Jokic's ability to create for his teammates, and they were okay with him scoring points. This isn't really what you want to hear when I'm recommending playing the Under 29.5 points on Thursday, but I'm hitting the button on the Under because I don't expect the same strategy on Thursday.

If the goal was to let Jokic score but limit his ability to create for his teammates, that strategy didn't work at all in Game 5, as Jokic had 40 points and 13 assists. Having Rudy Gobert guard Jokic one-on-one with no help is not the answer for slowing down his ability to create offense for his teammates. Gobert likes to play a couple of steps off Jokic, and when Jokic isn't bringing it right to Gobert's chest to score, he is analyzing the floor like a quarterback with 10 seconds in the pocket because of how far Gobert is off him.

It's a do-or-die Game 6 at home, and the Timberwolves need a defensive game plan that everyone believes in. There's no way the Timberwolves coaching staff will present the same game plan as Game 5 for their scout and expect everyone to be on board. It doesn't matter if you have the Defensive Player of the Year in Gobert; Jokic is matchup-proof and needs to be guarded as a team. I expect we will see the Timberwolves go back to the strategy that worked in Game 1 and Game 2.

The Timberwolves have the size and defensive versatility to limit Jokic's scoring. This isn't a hypothesis; it's a fact, as shown in Game 1 and Game 2. When the Timberwolves guard Jokic as a team with different coverages, stunts, and sporadic double teams, Jokic isn't as decisive on offense and looks rushed.

Jokic is projected to score 27.1 points on Thursday against the Timberwolves, which allows us to price the under 29.5 points at -172, but it is available at FanDuel at -113.

Nikola Jokic prop: Under 29.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Reid all about it!

NAZ REID!

Do I need more to this breakdown as to why I'm betting on the 6th Man of the Year to go Over the total of 1.5 threes made at +136? 

The Nuggets' defensive game plan is to throw as many bodies at Anthony Edwards as they can, whether it's in a blitz or building walls. By loading up with help defense on Edwards and sending double teams to Towns as well, the Nuggets are forcing the other players on the Minnesota Timberwolves to create offense, whether that is Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jaden McDaniels, or Gobert. They are essentially saying the other players on the Timberwolves can't beat them on offense, and this has been the Achilles' heel and concern for this Timberwolves team, especially with Mike Conley dealing with an injury.

If the Nuggets are going to guard Edwards and Towns like this, the Timberwolves need to throw a counterpunch and play a lineup with more offense to help create space for Edwards. That's Reid, and it's the three-ball from Reid that will help give Edwards the space he needs to operate on offense.

The other reason I like this prop is that I believe we have an edge on this price if Reid just sees his usual allotment of minutes. However, if the Timberwolves decide to guard Jokic as a team, we could see elevated minutes for Reid as they opt for more offense and fewer Gobert minutes.

In any other matchup, Gobert has value on the floor as a lob threat and a defensive weapon who can slow down opposing bigs. If he can't guard Jokic one-on-one and on offense, he is just clogging the lane even more for Edwards, the Timberwolves should opt for more minutes with Towns and Reid, who can both knock down the three-ball.

It's about creating space for Edwards, and the Nuggets have also shown the ability to take charges on Reid when he drives to the rim. Let it fly from deep, Reid!

Reid is projected to make 1.7 three-pointers on Thursday against the Nuggets, which isn't quite the 2 three-pointers we need for a green checkmark, but it's the +136 price point that is the key to this wager. Based on this projection, we can price Reid at -104 to go over the total of 1.5 threes made, but it is available at DraftKings at +136.

Naz Reid prop: Over 1.5 threes (+136 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: On the town

All of these bets are extremely connected based on how I think the minutes could be allocated and the strategy the Timberwolves could deploy on Thursday in their Game 6 against the Nuggets. In the Reid prop, I mentioned that Gobert's minutes could be reduced in Game 6, which would impact several props, including a potential over on Karl-Anthony Towns' rebounds prop priced at 6.5 (-125).

Here's the thing with this prop: even if Gobert sees his usual allotment of minutes, I still believe you have an edge at this number with it trading at 6.5 (-125). That is the key to this wager. I'm not dependent on Gobert spending slightly more time on the bench; it's just a potential added boost. We can't bank on it, but if the Timberwolves opt for more offense with Towns and Reid, Towns will become the main rebounder on the floor, which brings a whole different dimension to this bet.

To establish a healthy edge on this number, we need around 32 minutes from Towns. I know the Timberwolves have been cautious with his minutes to a degree because he is returning from a knee injury, but this is a do-or-die Game 6 at home. The Timberwolves desperately need Towns on the offensive end, and if he can stay out of foul trouble, I find it extremely hard to believe that we won't see more than 32 minutes for Towns.

I also mentioned in the Jokic bet that I don't expect Gobert to be the primary defender on Jokic as he was in Game 5. When Towns was the primary defender on Jokic in Games 3 and 4, Towns averaged 14.5 rebound chances per game, which was slightly higher than Gobert, who was averaging 14 per game. Towns led the Timberwolves in this category. Having Towns as the primary defender on Jokic and Gobert in more of a free safety role should open up more rebounding chances for Towns.

Towns is projected to grab 7.8 rebounds on Thursday against the Nuggets, which allows us to price the over 6.5 rebounds at -167, but it is available at bet365 at -125.

Karl-Anthony Towns prop: Over 6.5 rebounds (-125 at bet365)