We have a pair of crucial Game 3 matchups in the NBA playoffs tonight, with the Denver Nuggets and Indiana Pacers trying to avoid 0-3 deficits. The Pacers are expected to win at home with the Knicks missing a key player, but the defending-champion Nuggets are road underdogs, with oddsmakers sold on the Timberwolves after a dominant Game 2 win in Denver.
There are interesting betting angles on both of those narratives, which is why I'm backing the Pacers and Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokic with a parlay play in my NBA picks for Friday, May 10.
NBA playoffs parlay picks May 10
- Pacers alt spread -3.5
- Hart Over 17.5 points
- Jokic Over 29.5 points
(+553 at DraftKings)
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Best NBA parlay picks for Friday
NBA parlay pick
Pacers alt spread -3.5
Josh Hart Over 17.5 points
Nikola Jokic Over 29.5 points
Despite losing the first two games, the Pacers were able to put up points on the road against a stingy New York defense and with the series heading to Indy for Game 3, I like their offense to thrive again.
Home teams down 0-2 in a series historically play well since they are practically in a must-win spot while their opponents have less urgency. Keep in mind that the Pacers also shredded New York's defense during the regular season, and the Knicks will be without two-way stud OG Anunoby due to a hamstring injury. Anunoby has been crucial to New York's success down the stretch, with the Knicks going 26-5 with him in the lineup this season.
His absence will be felt in a massive way, especially since he's been logging extensive playing time, and New York's rotation is already shorthanded due to injuries to Mitchell Robinson, Julius Randle, and Bojan Bogdanovic. The Knicks' best player, Jalen Brunson, is also listed as questionable due to a foot injury, and while he will likely play, he could be less than 100%.
That puts the Pacers in a good spot to win, and while the -7 spread still looks a tad too steep, I'll gladly chop that number in half and add it to this parlay. Although the Pacers' firepower should help them pull away, their weak defense will still give up points. Those points need to come from someone, and that someone should be Josh Hart.
Hart has emerged as a stud in the playoffs, and he rarely comes off the floor, averaging 48.8 minutes per game over the last four contests. He's scored 18+ points in six of eight games during the postseason and he should take more shots in Anunoby's absence. Taking the Over on Hart's points, along with the Pacers on the spread, creates a nice multiplier for this parlay.
Like the Pacers, the Nuggets are also down 0-2, but they're on the road and catching 4.5 points. Win or lose, I expect a big performance from Nikola Jokic tonight.
Jokic just won his third NBA MVP, and this is the kind of must-win game where an MVP needs to put his team on his back. Sure, the Timberwolves have a terrific defense anchored by center Rudy Gobert, but that hasn't typically stopped Jokic.
Jokic was held to 16 points on 5-13 shooting in Game 2 but he dropped 32 points on 25 field goal attempts in the series opener. These teams also faced off three times in the final month of the regular season, and Jokic scored 35, 32, and 41 points in those contests.
In addition, Denver's second-best scorer, Jamal Murray, has been shut down this series. The T-Wolves have been pressing Murray with a combination of Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Anthony Edwards, and Jaden McDaniels, who are constantly pressuring him and forcing him into tough shots.
With Jokic's Robin (is Murray Harley Quinn in this analogy?) struggling to score, expect The Joker to carry the offensive burden for Denver in a desperation spot.
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Today's NBA same-game parlay picks
Our betting experts have searched through today's NBA odds to find your best SGP bets for both games on Tuesday's playoff slate:
Knicks vs Pacers same-game parlay (SGP)
Tyrese Haliburton Over 9.5 assists
Aaron Nesmith Over 1.5 made threes
Obi Toppin 10+ points
I mentioned in our breakdown of the best bet that with the game shifting back to Gainbridge Fieldhouse, we could see the role players for the Pacers shoot the ball better from deep, helping to convert the potential assists for Haliburton.
One player that Haliburton was consistently finding in Game 2 for shots from three was Aaron Nesmith. Nesmith actually splashed a three in the corner off of a Haliburton pass to send Haliburton over the 8.5 in Game 2, but there were plenty of other attempts as well off of a Haliburton pass that didn't get converted.
I'm also pairing Obi Toppin's 10+ points prop with the Haliburton's assists prop. Toppin has been playing extremely motivated basketball against his old team, scoring 12 and 20 points in Game 1 and Game 2. I like pairing Toppin with Haliburton's assists prop just in general because he is a lob threat whom Haliburton will look for on alley-oop dunks, and he can also knock down a 3-pointer to help convert a Hali assist.
Read Jon Metler's full Knicks vs. Pacers predictions.
Nuggets vs Timberwolves same-game parlay (SGP)
Aaron Gordon Over 5.5 rebounds
Michael Porter Jr. Over 16.5 points
Minnesota Timberwolves 1H moneyline
Gordon’s been limited the past two games, compared to his past playoff work, and projections all call for six or more boards tonight, with his floor time ticking up.
The Nuggets have questions in the backcourt, with three key guards listed as questionable. Michael Porter Jr. projections call for 17-plus already, and he could get more touches if any of those guys do sit out or are limited.
The crowd will be insane in Minnesota to start this game, and I expect the T-Wolves to play with that energy in the first 24 minutes. Denver has been known to start slow and hang around enough to make a second-half push. But I like Minnesota to lead at the break.
Read Jason Logan's full Nuggets vs. Timberwolves predictions.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
