NBA Picks

We played Brown Over 2.5 assists (-130) in Game 2, and he easily got there by the end of the first quarter. With the Game 3 price adjusting and opening at 3.5 (+125), I'm still hitting the button on the Over because I believe this prop needs a much more aggressive move to be in the window where it should be trading. The Celtics are matchup hunting Luka Doncic with Brown and Jayson Tatum, and it's allowing both players to consistently get in the lane, collapse the defense, and generate potential assists. Brown has 8 and 12 potential assists in the first two games, which is a massive number and should have your attention with this prop trading at 3.5 (+125). The problem for the Mavericks is they don't have any defensive counters, and if they change their rotations in Game 3, their point-of-attack defense could actually be worse. Brown is projected to have 4 assists on Wednesday, which allows us to price the Over 3.5 assists at -126.

I bet on this in Game 2 and didn’t win, as Washington finished the game with only one assist. However, nothing changes for me in Game 3, and I'm going right back to this bet. Jason Kidd said he wants Washington to play more of a Magic Johnson role, and Josh Hart mentioned that one of his adjustments would be to put Washington on the ball more to take the pressure off Doncic and Irving. A line of 1.5 assists (+100) is accurate for Washington when his role is to stand in the corner and shoot three-pointers, but that is not his role in this series. He is setting screens, putting the ball on the floor, and getting into the lane against the Celtics, and this role could further expand in Game 3. Washington is projected to have 2 assists in Game 3 against the Celtics, which allows us to price the Over 1.5 assists at -133.

In Game 2, Gafford's assists prop was set at 0.5 (-130), and while the price caught my eye, I hadn’t seen anything on film to suggest we should target this number. That changes for Game 3 after how the Mavericks utilized Gafford in Game 2. Throughout the NBA playoffs, Gafford has mostly been used as a lob threat, but with the Celtics opting to leave Jayson Tatum on Gafford instead of Kristaps Porzingis or Al Horford to disrupt the Mavericks' pick-and-roll game, we saw the Mavericks counter by dumping the ball into the post for Gafford. Gafford capitalized with multiple buckets, and if the Mavericks continue to utilize him in this fashion, we should see an uptick in potential assists for the Mavericks center. Gafford is projected to have 1.2 assists against the Celtics, which allows us to price the Over 0.5 assists at -203.

White’s usage rate spiked when Kristaps Porzingis injured his calf in the first round, and even Porzingis’s return in the Finals has not slowed White, scoring 15 in Game 1 and 18 in Game 2. Now Porzingis may be limited once more. If he is, then White’s import will rise anew. But even if Porzingis is full-go, realize White has cleared this points prop in 11 of 16 playoff games, including each of his last 3 and 6 of his last 7. His 3-pointer rate has not fallen in the Finals, averaging 9 looks per game in the first three rounds and now going 7-of-18 through two games. Those shots alone endanger White’s points prop; three times in these playoffs he has hit at least five 3-pointers.

If Boston’s shooters had dabbled in more competency in Game 1, Tatum would have cleared double-digit assists in both Games 1 and 2. He had five assists in Game 1, plus 14 more potential assists. The Celtics simply missed a pile of shots. He then tallied 12 assists in Game 2. Tatum spreading the ball around works best for Boston, especially against a Dallas defense with enough quality perimeter defenders to bother him but few others.

The Mavs bigs have also been largely ineffectual on the glass. They are having a difficult time playing close to the rim because of the five-out system the Celtics use, where Kristaps Porzingis or Horford are always spacing the floor at the five. One of the ways Dallas is trying to maintain a big in the paint is by hiding their center on Holiday, considered a lesser shooter than the other Celtics perimeter players. Jrue made them pay by leaking in from the corner to attack the offensive glass when Gafford or Dereck Lively II had their head turned. Holiday finished Game 2 with four offensive rebounds.

Luka's willingness to shoot so quickly early in Game 2 was a deliberate choice. It forced the Celtics to react. They had to either close out hard, fight through the pick, or switch a player that Doncic had manipulated into the screening action. Luka will have to establish his own isolation scoring again in Game 3 to get the Mavs offense flowing, so I expect him to be hyper-aggressive in the first quarter with the season on the line.

Luka was more successful getting the Celtics to put two on the ball more in Game 2, and in those situations, he will pick the defense apart on the backline. Those passes are easy for him. He found his first few lobs of the series as well, as both he and the roll man became more used to navigating Boston’s pressure. Luka finished with 11 assists, but nine of those 11 came on passes that led to shots in the paint. Many of them were right at the rim.