If current form is a harbinger of future performance, Friday night could bring another Run-A-Palooza when the Boston Red Sox host the New York Yankees. **video
New York (66-36) has the best record in all of baseball, but got belted by Boston 19-3 as a -110 road favorite Thursday. The BoSox (57-47) posted the blowout as +101 home underdogs and have won three of four to stay firmly in the American League wild-card race.
Oddsmakers again have the Yankees favored for a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s break down the odds for this clash of AL East rivals, with in-depth analysis, betting trends and predictions.
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (+110, 11 at BetAmerica)
QUICK HITTER
As solid as the Yanks are, they’ve lost in James Paxton’s last four starts, though only his last outing merited such a decision. Paxton allowed seven runs (four earned) in 3 1/3 innings of Sunday’s 8-4 home loss to Colorado. In the other three starts, he yielded five runs over 18 innings. All that said, Paxton gave up at least one first-running run in seven of his last 10 starts, including two or more runs four times.
Andrew Cashner was just recently acquired by the Red Sox, from Baltimore, and his two Boston starts have not been good: 10 runs allowed (nine earned) over 11 innings, with Boston losing both. But his last five starts with Baltimore were solid. Still, he’s allowed at least one first-inning run in six of his last 10 starts.
So betting on a first-inning run is hardly a stretch, but that comes with a hefty -200 price tag. Consider a scoring option at a better price, instead.
PICK: First Inning Runs Odd/Even – Odd (+150)
FIRST FIVE INNINGS BET
Paxton has thrown a clean five innings in just two of his last 10 starts, and as noted above, he lasted only 3 1/3 innings in his last start (seven runs, four earned). He also allowed a six-spot twice in that 10-game stretch, and four runs through five innings in another start.
Cashner hasn’t been much better, yielding four runs or more through five innings in four of his last 10 outings. It’s a hefty total for the first five frames, but these two teams seem up to the task.
PICK: First Five Innings – Over 6.5 (-110)
PLAYER/TEAM PROP
The Yankees are 7-3 in their last 10 games, but they’ve plated the first run in just two of those games. In fact, opponents put up the first score in 11 of the Pinstripes’ last 14 outings.
The Red Sox added to that trend Thursday with a seven-run onslaught in the first inning. Boston scored the first run in eight of its last 10 games, and interestingly, the Sox had a pair of seven-run innings and a pair of four-run innings among those scoring-first efforts. Perhaps it won’t be an outburst of runs, but Boston looks like the play here, especially at plus money.
PICK: First To Score – Boston (+145)
FULL GAME TOTAL
The Over is on a 6-0 run for the Yanks, and in the longer term, the Over is 40-13-2 in the Pinstripes’ last 55 road outings. The Over is also 8-3 in the Red Sox’s last 11 home games.
Additionally, New York and Boston rank first and second, respectively, in runs per game, at 5.79 and 5.78. The last four Yanks-Sox meetings cleared the total by at least three runs. Granted, two of those were in the crazy London meetings June 29-30, but Thursday’s run spree put the Over at 7-1-1 in the last nine Fenway Park clashes between these rivals. It’s hard to imagine anything else at this point.
PICK: Over 11 (-120)
FULL GAME SIDE
New York is 6-2 in the last eight clashes with Boston, but only one of those meetings was at Fenway; five were in the Bronx, and the Yanks won both London games. The Red Sox need to keep moving to stay firmly in the wild-card race, and they’ve won four of their last five at home. They’re worth a look again tonight.
PICK: Boston (+110)
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
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