I’m targeting the late games for pitcher props, eyeing an Over on outs for a breakout candidate, expecting another short outing from a Cleveland starter, and fading a Yankees arm making his season debut.
These are my favorite MLB picks for Wednesday, April 16.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for April 16
Soriano o16.5 outs (-130 at BetMGM)
Williams u4.5 hits allowed (+100 at DraftKings)
Schmidt u4.5 strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings)
Today's SP best bets
Angels vs. Texas
The angle: Jose Soriano is breaking out.
The move: Jose Soriano Over 16.5 outs (-130 at BetMGM)
Jose Soriano boasts two outings of 21+ outs under his belt already this season, and he has done it on a pitch count that hasn't topped 93 pitches. The last time he pitched, he went for 23 outs on 93 pitches while only walking three. The Los Angeles Angels right-hander has surrendered just 136 hits over 175 IP in his MLB career.
He can get out of trouble with a decent K rate and always has a double-play chance with an absurd 65% groundball rate. I love efficient pitchers, and Soriano is becoming a brand-name in the league with a sinker that gets near triple digits. Back him to reach 18+ outs again on the road, where he is 2-for-2 on this prop this season.
Guardians vs. Orioles
The angle: Gavin Williams might have a firm leash of only two times through the order.
The move: Gavin Williams Under 4.5 hits allowed (+100 at DraftKings)
Gavin Williams rarely sees the order a third time around when he starts. The Cleveland Guardians right-hander has made three starts and has yet to reach 20 batters. His Under 15.5 outs is a little juiced at -130, so Under 4.5 hits is the next best move to bank on a low-volume outing from the Cleveland starter.
When you see a pitcher being removed at 18 or 19 batters, that shows how little his manager trusts him a third time through the order. The hits allowed part of the bet isn't the most important here — it's the low volume and finding value in another market after the Under 15.5 outs got steamed.
Royals vs. Yankees
The angle: Clarke Schmidt is making his first start of the season and projects for around 70 pitches.
The move: Clarke Schmidt Under 4.5 strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings)
Clarke Schmidt is returning today after a shoulder injury sidelined him for the start of the season. He has two minor-league starts under his belt but lasted just 61 pitches in his latest outing, striking out only four. Considering the shape of the New York Yankees rotation and the injuries it has already sustained, keeping Schmidt's workload low is ideal.
The Kansas City Royals enter tonight with a Top-10 strikeout rate at the plate, and with strong 18-mph winds blowing out to right field at Yankee Stadium, his day could be cut short if the Royals start tagging him. Over his MLB career, Schmidt has been a K/inning guy, and getting 15 outs today is going to be a tough ask on 70-75 pitches.
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