Today’s massive slate features numerous players with solid chances of going yard.
I’ve scoured through the matchups and found three hitters in good situations against starting pitchers known to serve one up.
Read on as I share my MLB player props for Sunday, April 20.
Best MLB home run props today
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Triston Casas (+400 at Caesars) -
Paul Goldschmidt (+360 at Caesars) - Aaron Judge (+160 at Caesars)
HR picks for April 20
Triston Casas (+400 at Caesars)
Triston Casas hit a single off the Monster in the bottom of the tenth inning to lift the Red Sox to a Saturday afternoon victory over the Chicago White Sox.
Maybe Casas' big hit will get him going, because he’s riding the struggle bus. The Boston 1B is batting .176 with one jack across 68 at-bats, but he has a good matchup today against White Sox righty Sean Burke.
Burke has already served up five bombs across 72 batters faced. His fastball and slider are getting swatted all over the yard, and lefty bats have cracked two of those five home runs.
Casas has hit 21 of his 43 career home runs against righties and 16 dingers against right-handed arms at Fenway Park.
With the wind blowing out to right field, I like his chances of going yard against Burke today.
Paul Goldschmidt (+400 at Caesars)
The wind is blowing out to right field at George M. Steinbrenner Field, and I like Paul Goldschmidt’s chances of going yard today.
Goldschmidt has been on a tear; the veteran first baseman has hit safely in four straight, and while he has the second most hits on the team (29), he’s only hit one bomb this season.
That could change today as he and the rest of the New York Yankees have a tasty matchup with righty Ryan Pepiot.
Right-handed lumber is smacking Pepiot around the yard. He’s allowed four of his six home runs to righties, and the right side boasts a robust .353 BABIP and .482 wOBA against the righty.
Goldschmidt’s underlying metrics are solid; his .438 BABIP suggests he’s been unlucky, but he bats cleanup in a potent lineup, and if he gets one up in the air, he has a good chance of going yard today.
Aaron Judge (+400 at Caesars)
Wind blowing out or not, Aaron Judge must be licking his chops at the prospect of batting against Pepiot.
Pepiot is serving up nearly a bomb every nine ABs. His fastball and slider are getting buried deep into the seats, and he’s up against one of the most prolific power hitters in the game.
Judge began the season like a house on fire but has only one homer across the past 49 ABs. His .453 BABIP and 250 wRC+ suggest he’s been unlucky, and Pepiot has been known to serve one up.
Pepiot has served up five taters across the last 16 frames. I like an “unlucky” Judge to get more than lucky with at least one dinger today.
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