The Battle of Ontario kicks off tonight between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Ottawa Senators at Scotiabank Arena.
We all remember Auston Matthews’ four-goal debut the first time he played Ottawa in the regular season, and my Senators vs. Maple Leafs predictions expect him to make noise tonight as well.
Find out more in my free NHL picks for this April 20 tilt.
Who will win Senators vs Maple Leafs Game 1?
The Ottawa Senators swept the regular season series 3-0, yet it’s the Toronto Maple Leafs entering as -160 favorites to win Game 1, and rightfully so.
The Leafs ended the season on a five-game winning streak, finishing the year with the fourth-best record in the NHL. Toronto had a goal differential of +37, while the Sens were just a +9 and -15 when on the road.
The Buds have the edge up front and on the backend, while Ottawa has the advantage in net with Linus Ullmark being the most experienced netminder in the series. However, Anthony Stolarz has been incredible down the stretch with an 8-0 record and a .950 SV% to even that out.
Ultimately, I expect the Leafs to come out on top tonight.
Senators vs Maple Leafs prediction
My Senators vs Maple Leafs pick: Auston Matthews anytime goal (+125 at Sports Interaction)
Although Ottawa swept the regular season series, the slate gets wiped clean with the playoffs now underway.
Speaking of wiping clean, one player who will be happy to put the regular season behind him is Auston Matthews, who scored a career-low 33 goals.
However, he started to heat up toward the end with a three-game scoring streak to finish off the season, and I expect that production to carry over into the playoffs.
The Maple Leafs' top line of Matthews, Mitch Marner, and Matthew Knies has played some excellent hockey together, ranking fourth in the NHL among trios with at least 500 minutes of playtime, averaging 3.61 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
Moreover, both Matthews and Knies rank in the Top 5 in individual-high-danger chances, which, in theory, should increase their odds of scoring.
Matthews has been a goal-scoring threat to Ottawa from the moment he broke into the league with his four-goal NHL debut against the Sens.
The Leafs' captain has 25 career goals against the Ottawa Senators and has scored 11 goals in 10 games against Ullmark throughout their careers — including one on March 15.
Additionally, the Maple Leafs' power play is expected to be a significant X-factor in this series. Toronto has scored on 31.1% of its PP’s since January 15, the best rate in the league over that stretch.
Meanwhile, the Sens' penalty kill this season is 77.7%, while ranking 10th in the league in penalties taken.
Senators vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay (SGP)
Auston Matthews anytime goal
Auston Matthews 3+ shots
Leafs moneyline
It’s time the Leafs' core-four put their negative playoff narrative behind them, so I’m anticipating a major uptick in production. Matthews averaged 3.89 shots per game this season and has recorded three or more shots on net in 13 of his last 15 playoff games.
The Buds are the superior team between the two squads and have a significant advantage playing tonight’s game on home ice. The Sens went 18-19-4 on the road this season with a -15 goal differential.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Senators vs Maple Leafs odds
Senators vs Maple Leafs live odds
Senators vs Maple Leafs opening odds
- Puck line: Ottawa +1.5 (-200) | Toronto -1.5 (+165)
- Moneyline: Ottawa +130 | Toronto -155
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 | Under 5.5
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
Senators vs Maple Leafs trend
The Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Maple Leafs.
How to watch Senators vs Maple Leafs
| Location | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Sunday, 4-20-2025 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Senators vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
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