The first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs continues Sunday.
There are three games on the slate: the Carolina Hurricanes host the New Jersey Devils, the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Ottawa Senators, and the Vegas Golden Knights host the Minnesota Wild.
Below, I break down each game in my NHL picks and parlay predictions for April 20.
Today's best NHL Playoffs parlay: April 20
Hurricanes ML
Senators/Maple Leafs Over 5.5
Golden Knights ML
Pick #1: Hurricanes moneyline
The first game of today's NHL slate features the Carolina Hurricanes hosting the New Jersey Devils. Analytically speaking, New Jersey is one of the worst teams in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Over the past two months, the Devils rank 26th in expected goals for percentage (xGF%). That ranking reflects their inability to both generate high-danger scoring chances and suppress them.
New Jersey ranks 28th in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and 17th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) in the same stretch. Meanwhile, Carolina ranks first in xGF/60, 11th in xGA/60, and second in xGF%.
Pick #2: Senators/Maple Leafs Over 5.5
It’s rare to see a total of 5.5 in a Toronto Maple Leafs game, but that’s largely due to the recent excellence of goaltender Anthony Stolarz. That said, Stolarz surrendered three goals in his latest start against the Ottawa Senators.
Another reason to back the Over in this contest is the poor defensive performance of each team. Over the past two months, both clubs rank in the bottom half of the league in xGA/60.
At the same time, offensive firepower shouldn’t be a concern. Both teams have produced 2.99 or more xGF/60 over the past two months.
Pick #3: Golden Knights moneyline
The Vegas Golden Knights are my pick to win the Stanley Cup, and they have a tremendous draw in the first round. Vegas was dominant over the final two months of the regular season, ranking 14th in xGF/60, first in xGA/60, and fourth in xGF%.
Minnesota trails in all three of those categories.
Furthermore, goaltender Adin Hill has trended in the right direction. Over his final 10 starts of the regular season, Hill went 8-2 with a .905 SV% and 2.18 GAA.
The Knights also have the playoff experience, having won 13 of their past 20 playoff games.
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