The San Diego Padres have dropped consecutive games to the Houston Astros, and the two meet for the series finale on Sunday Night Baseball at Daikin Park tonight.
This has the makings of a pitchers' duel with San Diego righty Dylan Cease facing Houston southpaw Framber Valdez, and my Padres vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks anticipate Cease & Co. coming out on top Sunday, April 20.
Padres vs Astros prediction for Sunday Night Baseball
My Padres vs Astros best bet: Padres moneyline (+105 at Caesars)
San Diego Padres starter Dylan Cease has been solid in three of his four starts, with the outlier coming at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park, where he served up nine runs on nine hits and three walks across just four frames to the Athletics.
Otherwise, it’s been business as usual for the 29-year-old righty, and his 3.42 xFIP is right in line with last year’s 3.44 mark. Cease allowing a .379 BABIP while stranding just 53.2% of base runners through four starts are the outliers, and again, those can largely be explained by his respective .556 and 25% marks in the single start against the A's.
Of course, the Houston Astros have also been quiet against righties to start the season with a 25th-ranked .287 wOBA and 27th-ranked .105 ISO.
Additionally, Cease just held the Cubs in check with just two earned runs allowed last time out, and the North Siders boast a fifth-ranked .342 wOBA and seventh-ranked .179 ISO against righties. This Houston lineup is a notable downtick in class.
Astros lefty Framber Valdez is an admirable opponent and excellent starter with an outstanding 3.29 ERA and 3.24 xFIP dating back to the 2023 campaign, but the Friars have also been tough on lefties with an eighth-ranked 109 wRC+ during the same timeframe.
San Diego will snap its two-game skid tonight.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Padres vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres moneyline
Dylan Cease Over 5.5 strikeouts
Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBI
In addition to Houston's highlighted struggles against righties, the Astros also sport a healthy 22.7 strikeout rate. It positions Cease to rack up punchouts tonight, and he’s posted an elite 11.18 K/9 and 29.6 strikeout rate since breaking through as a full-time starter in 2021.
Turning to Friars third baseman Manny Machado, he continues to extend his prime years with a rock-solid .373 wOBA and 10 RBI through 21 games to start the season. He’s posted a .365 mark with a .214 ISO against lefties dating back to the beginning of the 2023 campaign, too.
Machado is also positioned well in the San Diego lineup with two proven bats ahead of him. Fernando Tatis Jr. sports a high-end .375 on-base percentage, and Luis Arraez checks in with a .324 mark vs. lefties since 2023.
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Padres vs Astros odds
Padres vs Astros live odds
Padres vs Astros opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +110 | Houston -130
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-200) | Houston -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Padres vs Astros trend
The Padres have cashed the moneyline in 101 of their last 168 games for +19.70 units and a 9% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Astros.
How to watch Padres vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Sunday, 4-20-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Padres starting pitcher | Dylan Cease (2025: 1-1, 6.64 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Framber Valdez (2025: 1-2, 4.91 ERA) |
Padres vs Astros latest injuries
Padres vs Astros weather
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