The Minnesota Timberwolves did not simply win Game 1. They beat the Los Angeles Lakers in just about every way on Saturday night, turning a seven-point first-quarter deficit into an 11-point halftime lead and only growing the cushion from there.
Asking Minnesota to upset Los Angeles again in Game 2 would be bold, though far from unprecedented given its sweep of the Suns in last year’s opening round. But certain pieces of that Saturday upset should hold.
My Timberwolves vs. Lakers predictions and NBA picks start with Jaden McDaniels continuing to play as big as he is. Tip comes at 10 ET on Tuesday, April 22.
Who will win Timberwolves vs Lakers Game 2?
Obviously, the Los Angeles Lakers are favored, but there is some surprise this spread has moved a point toward Los Angeles compared to the Game 1 number of -4.5. Moving to -5.5 argues for, at least, some renewed Lakers’ verve after that initial thrashing.
It also argues against the Minnesota Timberwolves replicating their performance in Game 1. But how much of that performance needs to be replicated beyond the usual mean? The Timberwolves should not get 27 wide-open 3-pointers again, but they averaged 20 of them in the regular season, anyway. They should not make 50% of their 3-pointers, but a 22-point win cannot be explained away by a few extra 3-pointers.
And it is not like LA shot terribly, hitting 37% of its 3-pointers.
Minnesota’s edges are real. Finding six more rebounds, committing three fewer turnovers, piling up 29 assists compared to 15 for the Lakers, all of these thoughts are sustainable.
Frankly, the Timberwolves should win.
Timberwolves vs Lakers prediction
My best bet: Jaden McDaniels 7+ rebounds (+240 at bet365)
When the Lakers do not play Jaxson Hayes, their tallest players are 6-foot-9 LeBron James, 6-foot-8 Rui Hachimura, and 6-foot-8 Jarred Vanderbilt. And Los Angeles did not play the 7-foot Hayes much in Game 1, giving the starter just eight minutes of run.
None of those minutes came after an 11-0 Timberwolves run to start the second half, Hayes was then sent to the bench for good with more than 10 minutes remaining in the third quarter. Now, to be fair, no Laker played well in that stretch, but Hayes’s lowlights included:
- Anthony Edwards driving with Hayes AWOL from the lane, drawing help from Luka Doncic and thus setting up Jaden McDaniels with a corner 3-pointer.
- Giving up a drive to Edwards and then the subsequent offensive rebound to Edwards, setting up a Julius Randle 3-pointer.
- Slowly getting up the court in transition, leaving the rim open for a layup for McDaniels.
Hayes is a defensive liability anytime he is outside the lane, and the Minnesota Timberwolves will gladly move Rudy Gobert to screen on the perimeter to put Hayes in those moments. At that point, he does not even provide rim protection. This may sound harsh, but there may be a reason Hayes has played 20 minutes in exactly one playoff game in his entire career.
He should not see much playing time in Game 2, which brings us to McDaniels.
“If [Hayes] isn’t out there, I’m basically the tallest person out there,” McDaniels said after Game 1. “I don’t think no one can really rim protect me because Jaxson Hayes wasn’t on the court.”
McDaniels went 8-of-10 inside the arc on Saturday and grabbed nine rebounds. This is where he shines. He has developed a midrange game, and when he misses those shots, he likes to go grab the offensive rebounds. With Hayes not around, no one in a yellow jersey can outreach McDaniels and his 6-foot-9 frame that is actually closer to 6-foot-11, no matter what the official listings claim.
In the Timberwolves’ playoff run last year, McDaniels tracked down at least six rebounds in four of 11 games in the first two rounds, and that was before he dialed up his rebounding this season. Since altering his focus around New Year’s, McDaniels tracked down at least seven rebounds in 25 of 50 games. It became an emphasis.
And it will be again against this undersized Lakers team. They simply lack anyone physical inside. McDaniels thrives against that deficiency.
His rebounding prop is set at 4.5 with the Over juiced to -145. Suggesting McDaniels find another two rebounds should not bring a boost of nearly two dollars. Pricing this milestone at +240 is foolish, certainly when considering McDaniels’s edges against Los Angeles.
Timberwolves vs Lakers same-game parlay
Jaden McDaniels 7+ rebounds
Jaden McDaniels Over 11.5 points
Jaxson Hayes Under 2.5 rebounds
Since Jan. 1, McDaniels averaged 13.9 points in 50 games and cleared this prop in 30 of them. The reality that Minnesota should shoot worse in this game will not impact McDaniels all that much, despite going 3-of-3 from long range in Game 1. He is at his best when attacking the paint, and this expectation that JJ Redick needs to move away from Hayes will only embolden McDaniels’s attacks.
The Lakers need to shift something. Removing Hayes as a perimeter defensive liability is the obvious first choice. He might not play more than a few token minutes.
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Timberwolves vs Lakers odds
Timberwolves vs Lakers live odds
Timberwolves vs Lakers opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +5.5 | Los Angeles -5.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota +200 | Los Angeles -240
- Over/Under: Over 214.5 | Under 214.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Timberwolves vs Lakers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread moving up a point from Game 1 reeks of playoff narrative and little else.
- This total fell from a Game 1 mark of 215 to a market open of 214.5, hardly notable, before plummeting to 210.5 as the week began.
- Credit Minnesota’s defense for that move. The Lakers struggled at the rim in Game 1, forcing the series opener three points Under its total despite the Timberwolves hitting 50% of their 3-pointers.
Timberwolves vs Lakers trend
The Timberwolves are now 10-4 against the spread as underdogs in the last three months and 8-6 straight up. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Lakers.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Lakers
| Location | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Tuesday, 4-22-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Timberwolves vs Lakers latest injuries
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