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Douglas Farmer

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers

Douglas Farmer

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Betting Analyst Years of Experience Icon17+ years experience
Betting Analyst
Years of Experience Icon17+ years experience Covers Email Icon Twitter Icon

Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds.

In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets.

While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.

Favorites
Team: Minnesota Timberwolves
Sport to bet on: College football
Sports movie: Finding Forrester
Sports snack: Whiskey
Covers feature: Line movement tracker
A "return to living" trip to Vegas before the 2021 football season started by seeing value on Georgia to win the national championship at +800. By then, mid-August, the consensus line was +650. So, I took my entire weekend's bankroll and put it on what I affectionately referred to as "Clifford." The logic was, Georgia should make the Playoff and by then, I'll be sitting on great value to hedge out. Except, I never hedged out. I just added to the investment all season long, including with live odds of +140. The joy was not in the win, but in the five months of vindicated conviction.
Best Betting Memory Icon Best Betting Memory
This may seem trivial, but it is the one that still aggravates me years later. There are few better bets in life than fading a Brian VanGorder defense. So when Bowling Green visited Notre Dame in 2019, I trusted the Irish to run it up on their former defensive coordinator, betting the Notre Dame team total Over 54.5. I think I am the only person in the world who vividly remembers Javon McKinley dropping an open crossing route inside the 10-yard line, forcing the Irish to settle for a field goal en route to a 52-0 win.
Best Betting Memory Icon Worst Beat

Illinois vs Kentucky Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for Today’s March Madness Game

Mar 23, 2025 • 2:15 PM ET

Farmer's prediction: While the Illini have caught fire down the stretch, their lack of perimeter defense will prove costly against Koby Brea and the Wildcats.

UCLA vs Tennessee Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's March Madness Game

Mar 22, 2025 • 6:31 PM ET

While we fully expect Tennessee to advance, our March Madness picks expect a big game from a particular UCLA sharpshooter.

Gonzaga vs Houston Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s March Madness Game

Mar 22, 2025 • 5:39 PM ET

The Houston Cougars may be a No. 1 seed, but as Douglas Farmer explains, they are being undervalued in the market. Find out why he's backing the Cougs' to win this one going away.

March Madness Picks: Survivor Pool Predictions for the Second Round

Mar 22, 2025 • 10:52 AM ET

A survivor pool can yield a massive payout off a modest investment, and Douglas Farmer has you covered for this solvable puzzle ahead of Saturday's Round 2 action.

McNeese vs Purdue Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for Saturday’s March Madness Game

Mar 22, 2025 • 9:12 AM ET

McNeese State was a sexy pick to knock off Clemson in the opening round. As Douglas Farmer explains, the Cowboys will not sweat the boiler room, instead putting the tournament on notice with another upset win.

Xavier vs Illinois Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s March Madness Game

Mar 21, 2025 • 6:17 PM ET

Xavier has trended up over the last month, and Illinois has done the exact opposite over that span. Expect that to manifest in the final score when they face off on Friday.

Troy vs Kentucky Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for Today's March Madness Game

Mar 21, 2025 • 4:10 PM ET

TIp of the cap to Troy for making the Big Dance, but as Douglas Farmer explains, this is a terrible matchup for them. Find out why our college basketball betting picks are laying the points with Kentucky on Friday night.

Utah State vs UCLA Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s March Madness Game

Mar 20, 2025 • 6:17 PM ET

While I'm leaning toward Utah State over UCLA — even on the moneyline — I'm far more comfortable taking the Over as each defense is vulnerable to the opposing offense's greatest strength.

Wofford vs Tennessee Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today’s March Madness Game

Mar 20, 2025 • 3:51 PM ET

Farmer's prediction: The Terriers love to slow down the game to a snail's pace, and this gives Wofford sneaky value as heavy underdogs against the spread.

Georgia vs Gonzaga Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's March Madness Game

Mar 20, 2025 • 1:28 PM ET

For as consistent as Gonzaga has been throughout the last handful of years, Douglas Farmer believes they are actually underrated ahead of Thursday's opener vs. Georgia. Find out why he likes Mark Few and Co. to win and win going away.

McNeese vs Clemson Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today’s March Madness Game

Mar 20, 2025 • 12:10 PM ET

McNeese has already proven it can compete with powerhouse programs, and Douglas Farmer is taking the points with the Cowboys ahead of their Midwest Region clash.

SIU Edwardsville vs Houston Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's March Madness Game

Mar 20, 2025 • 11:44 AM ET

SIU Edwardsville is about to get pounded into dust, but it won't go down without a little fight.

High Point vs Purdue Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for Today’s March Madness Game

Mar 20, 2025 • 9:40 AM ET

No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers aim to put their first-round nightmares in the past and they should be safe this time around as they take on No. 13 High Point, whose defense may not be able to weather the storm of the opposing offense.

March Madness Picks: Survivor Pool Predictions for the First Round

Mar 19, 2025 • 6:28 PM ET

A survivor pool can yield a massive payout off a modest investment, and Douglas Farmer has you covered for this solvable puzzle ahead of Thursday's tip-off.

March Madness Bracket Predictions and Picks: Douglas Farmer Selects Houston Over Auburn

Mar 19, 2025 • 9:57 AM ET

Douglas Farmer crunched the numbers and has you covered with his complete March Madness bracket, headlined by Kelvin Sampson and the Cougars finally reaching the top of the mountain.

March Madness by the Numbers

Mar 17, 2025 • 5:24 PM ET

As we brace ourselves for a frenetic first four days of the 2025 March Madness tournament, Douglas Farmer breaks down some key numbers you need to know.

Arizona vs Houston Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for Tonight’s Big 12 Championship Game

Mar 15, 2025 • 2:53 PM ET

The Houston Cougars boast an elite stop unit Caleb Love and the Wildcats will struggle against, as our expert college basketball predictions explain.

Arizona vs Texas Tech Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's Big 12 Tournament Game

Mar 14, 2025 • 4:18 PM ET

Arizona may be coming off an 11-point win vs. Kansas, but as Douglas Farmer explains, the Wildcats have been slumping and the Red Raiders are playing some of their best basketball of the season. Find out more below!

BYU vs Houston Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's Big 12 Tournament Game

Mar 14, 2025 • 2:29 PM ET

BYU will live and die by the long-range shot, even if their opponent is the most fearsome defense in college hoops. Look for Richie Saunders & Co. to punch above their weight vs. Houston.

Kansas vs Arizona Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's Big 12 Tournament Basketball Game

Mar 13, 2025 • 4:05 PM ET

The Wildcats may not have to beware of the Phog, but the Jayhawks should still enjoy a relative home-court advantage in Kansas City. Kansas beat Arizona just last week and can do it again tonight, per our college basketball betting picks.

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