MLB Player Props & Best Bets Today for 4-21: On Cruz Control

It's a small slate of Monday baseball, but that doesn't mean there isn't value to be found. 

We've searched the board for some of our favorite bets. Try to stay within five cents of the recommended pricing. 

Here are my free MLB player props for Monday, April 21st.

Best MLB player props today

• Jasson Dominguez to record a double (+400 at Caesars)
• Elly De La Cruz over 0.5 RBIs (+159 at Caesars)
• Brett Baty Under 0.5 Hits (-109 at Caesars)

MLB props for April 21

Jasson Dominguez to record a double (+400 at Caesars)

You can see that it's starting to click for young Jasson Dominguez, especially from an offensive perspective. 

He looks more comfortable at the plate overall, and some underlying numbers are starting to like him more and more because of it. In addition, from a tangible perspective, he's had a .231 batting average start to the season — the best of his young career. 

The price of him hitting a double here piqued my interest, so we decided to take a chance. 

J-Dom has hit five doubles this season, and 60% of them came off the two primary pitches he'll see today from starter Gavin Williams: the sweeper and the fastball. In addition, there's much in Williams' profile that fits the same profile of those pitchers he'd doubled off.

All those pitchers had a barrel and hard-hit rate on the season in the bottom 40% of baseball. Williams fits that. Dominguez has demonstrated some power this season with a hard-hit rate above his new teammate Cody Bellinger. Aiding our cause is that no New York Yankees player has hit the sweeper harder this season than Dominquez, and Williams is throwing it just over 30% of the time. I'd play this MLB pick to +388.

Elly De La Cruz over 0.5 RBIs (+159 at Caesars)

Elly De La Cruz has found a groove after breaking out of a minor mid-April slump. The last seven days have seen him homer twice, collect five RBI, and post an OPS of .879. I like the spot tonight for him to continue contributing to the offense. 

Miami treated Cruz well last season, continuing a track record of what we saw in his rookie season. In 19 at-bats last season at Marlins Park, he did a little bit of everything: four doubles, two homers, five RBIs, a .579 batting average, and an eye-popping 1.74 OPS. That's what originally made me interested in backing him. I landed on RBI, given the price point that I expected to be sub +130. 

Elly is projected to bat third today, and with that, he'll have the good fortune of being behind the two hardest hitters (besides himself) in the Reds lineup. That's significant given that Max Meyer owns both a hard-hit and barrel rate in the bottom 20% of baseball. He should find himself in plenty of positions to drive a runner in with this in mind.

Brett Baty Under 0.5 Hits (-109 at Caesars)

I think Brett Baty should have tough sledding today with Aaron Nola on the mound. In fact, I feel pretty strongly that it will be, so much so that my fair price on the Under hits was a whole 30 cents different from this number. A pinch-hit risk that's elevated against a right-hander also plays a part, but let's talk about that matchup.

Baty will enter today with a whiff rate, chase rate, and strikeout rate, all near the bottom of the MLB. This isn't much of an anomaly, either. Baty has seen a steady rise in his strikeout rate over the last three seasons as teams have gotten more film on him. A free-swinging chase approach isn't exactly what you want when facing Nola. 

In his 11th season, Nola is still getting plenty of chases and strikeouts, with both metrics ranking in the top 30% of the league so far this year. That's a nightmare with Baty, probably why he's 0 and 7 against him in his career. I like Nola to go deep into the game and expect him to reduce Baty's number of hit chances.

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