Timely hits have been in short supply lately for the Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros, and they collide tonight at Daikin Park searching for answers.
The marquee names in both lineups need no introduction, but my Blue Jays vs Astros predictions signal nothing easy here against two talented starting pitchers.
Read on for my free MLB picks for this Monday, April 21 matchup.
Blue Jays vs Astros prediction
My Blue Jays vs Astros best bet: Under 7.5 (-115 at Caesars)
Question marks around run production seem destined to linger around the Toronto Blue Jays despite a solid start to the year — and the missed opportunities this weekend against the Seattle Mariners certainly brought the doubts bubbling back to the surface.
The Blue Jays dropped the last two games of that series while converting 23 hits into just seven runs, and now they’ll face Houston Astros starter Hunter Brown, who’s logged a stellar 1.52 ERA across his last five outings.
With Kevin Gausman also impressing in his last two starts, this could quickly shift into a pitching duel, and I’m grabbing the Under on 7.5 runs, with base-runners coming at a premium.
The trends support that pick. The Under is 7-3 in the past 10 meetings between these teams, and it’s been a winning ticket in 13 of Toronto’s last 19 contests. The first five innings Under is also 46-30 in the visitors’ last 76 road games.
Meanwhile, the Astros are averaging fewer runs per game (3.67) than the Blue Jays, and Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena are a combined 0-for-18 against Gausman.
Houston has cashed the Under in four of its last five games, and that feels like the safest play tonight with both teams’ bats struggling to make meaningful noise at the plate.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Blue Jays vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Kevin Gausman Over 4.5 strikeouts
Blue Jays moneyline
Gausman has found a nice rhythm in his last two starts, including a 10-strikeout effort against the Boston Red Sox on April 9, and I like this Over on a measly 4.5 Ks here.
He put together some of his best performances on the road last season, with a 2.51 ERA that was twice as stingy as his work at Rogers Centre, and I see him keeping the Astros off balance here.
The Blue Jays have won four of Gausman’s last five starts, and the visitors’ moneyline comes at tasty plus odds tonight. So I’m doubling down on the Toronto veteran and predicting he’ll get just enough run support, even with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette still looking for their first career hit against Brown.
Houston is only 6-6 at home this year, while the Blue Jays have covered the first-five inning run line in 14 of their last 19 games. After the visitors let winnable contests slip away at the weekend, they feel undervalued in this bounce-back spot.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Blue Jays vs Astros odds
Blue Jays vs Astros live odds
Blue Jays vs Astros opening odds
- Moneyline: Toronto +118 | Houston -141
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-189) | Houston -1.5 (-158)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Blue Jays vs Astros trend
The Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Astros.
How to watch Blue Jays vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Monday, 4-21-2025 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet 1, Space City Home Network |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Kevin Gausman (2-1, 2.49 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Hunter Brown (2-1, 1.50 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Astros latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Astros weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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