It might not be a holiday for everyone, but with the Boston Marathon game already in the books, the start of the week is feeling a little special. It's a small slate and the numbers have already moved a ton, but there are still a few spots to take advantage of on tonight's mounds.
These are my favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Monday, April 21.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for April 21
Nola u17.5 outs (-106 at Caesars)
Megill u15.5 outs (-118 at Caesars)
Gausman - most Ks thrown (+110 at Caesars)
Today's SP best bets
Phillies vs. Mets
The angle: Aaron Nola is driving the struggle bus and his velocity is a concern
The move: Aaron Nola Under 17.5 outs (-106 at Caesars)
Aaron Nola's name was near the top of the NL Cy Young betting market, but after four starts, an 0-4 record, and a 6.65 ERA, the veteran righty might be one start away from taking 10 days off.
His expected metrics aren't as bad as his ERA and WHIP suggest, but this is a guy who has a significant velo drop across the board and is in a tough spot today vs. the New York Mets. He has completed six innings just once this year and is coming off his heaviest workload of 99 pitches.
It's going to be windy in Citi Field today with 13-mph winds blowing out to left field. That's not good for a pitcher struggling to keep the ball in the yard and strand base runners.
The Mets, especially at the top of the order, are a dangerous lineup right now and Nola's velo dip combined with sudden command issues are a legitimate concern. Runs are coming from the Mets and this prop is 3-1 to the Under already for the season.
Phillies vs. Mets
The angle: Tylor Megill is pitching above his numbers and hasn't been getting deep despite being a little lucky
The move: Tylor Megill Under 15.5 outs (-118 at Caesars)
Similarly, the Mets' Tylor Megill has a tough matchup today vs. the Philadelphia Phillies, who plated 23 runs over three weekend games and have some wind blowing out to left field.
The biggest thing for Megill will be regression. He is pitching to a 1.40 ERA across four starts but owns a xERA 2.11 points higher. He has failed to go 18 outs in any of his four games and has given up 14 hits across his last nine frames. The Phillies could beat him up and navigating that lineup a third time through the order is no easy task.
Jays vs. Astros
The angle: Kevin Gausman needs to eat innings and the Jays are a low K% team
The move: Most strikeouts thrown - Kevin Gausman (+110 at Caesars)
This is an interesting market, which is essentially a H2H market on strikeouts that is a 2-way offering so a tie is a push. Kevin Gausman has 16 Ks over his last two starts, is getting deep, and sees a lot of batters.
He could see even more than usual today after the Toronto Blue Jays got a short out from Easton Lucas yesterday and played 12 innings on Saturday. It's the first game of the series and the Blue Jays need to reset the bullpen. Gausman will have a long leash.
Hunter Brown is a great pitcher who has allowed just four earned runs over four consecutive quality starts, but the Jays are not an easy K% team. Toronto currently boasts the second-lowest K% in baseball at 18.2%.
Gausman has a chance to get seven punchouts and this market might be a better avenue than his Over 4.5 Ks at -150. For comparison, Brown's K total is -157 for Under 5.5. THE BAT has Gausman's implied strikeouts at 5.22 compared to Brown's 4.98 while Gausman projects for 5.05 punchouts.
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