The first-round matchups for the 2025 NBA Playoffs are set following Friday’s Play-In tournament action, and the Cleveland Cavaliers will host the Miami Heat in Game 1 tonight.
The Eastern Conference’s top team has plenty of doubters ahead of its 2025 postseason debut and will face a visiting team that’s already had to win a pair of road games this week.
Here’s how I’m approaching the start of the series with my Heat vs. Cavaliers predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, April 20.
Who will win Heat vs Cavaliers Game 1?
Cleveland is a 12.5-point favorite in this matchup and finished the regular season as one of the NBA’s best teams against the spread. The Cavaliers won two of their three matchups against the Heat this year.
I’m backing the home team, which went 34-7 straight up at Rocket Arena ahead of the playoffs. The underdogs are a real threat to cover, though.
Heat vs Cavaliers prediction
My best bet: Over 215.0 points (-110 at bet365)
The Cleveland Cavaliers are clearly a much better team in this matchup. However, the books might be underrating how competitive the Miami Heat can be.
There’s no value in betting on the Cavaliers to win and it’s unlikely that the Heat will pull off an upset on the road against one of the league’s most consistent teams. Betting the Over has plenty of appeal given Cleveland’s offensive excellence and Miami’s perfectly-timed offensive evolution.
I don’t really need to make an argument for the Cavaliers. They put up a league-high 121.9 points per game during the regular season. That explosiveness contributed to the Over hitting in 62.2% of their games. No other team could top that mark. Bettors should expect the favorites to put the ball in the basket at a high rate. The Heat aren’t on the same level offensively, but are trending in the right direction.
Miami has averaged 119.8 points per games through nine outings in April if you include the two play-in games they won earlier this week. Erik Spoelstra’s squad has shown that it can get up and compete with prolific scoring teams in recent history and has done so on several occasions against Cleveland this season.
The total went over 218.5 in all three of the regular-season matchups between the Heat and Cavaliers during the regular season. They combined for over 228 points per contest in those games. Tyler Herro, Andrew Wiggins, and Bam Adebayo will be firing away and have enough in the tank to push the total over 215. Miami outscored two top-six scoring offenses (the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks) en route to the playoffs.
Heat vs Cavaliers same-game parlay
Over 215.0 points
Heat +12.5
Tyler Herro Over 23.5 points
I’ve already explained why recent trends and the history of this matchup make me think that the total will go over in Game 1. The other two legs of this same-game parlay seem likely to hit if the game script goes how I think it will.
Just to be clear, I'm fairly sure that Cleveland will win as expected. The Cavaliers are just 1-2 against the spread against Miami this season, though. They lost by nine despite being favored by 2.5 points in December before winning by six as 13.5-point home favorites in March. Spoelstra can stay in the mix with or without Jimmy Butler, and he’ll need Herro to cover against Cleveland for the third time this year.
Herro averaged 34.0 points per game on 20.0 shots per contest during the play-in tournament. He might not be able to replicate his 57.5% shooting from those outings, but he did shoot at least 19 shots in each of his two meetings with Cleveland this season. The Cavaliers have a sturdy defense, but I believe Herro has a great chance to stay right around his season average of 23.9 points per game if he plays 40 minutes and chucks up over 20 attempts.
Herro can lead the charge and score a ton in a barn burner game that the Heat lose by less than the oddsmakers expected.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Heat vs Cavaliers odds
Heat vs Cavaliers live odds
Heat vs Cavaliers opening odds
- Spread: Miami +12.5 (-110) | Cleveland -12.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Miami +550 | Cleveland -800
- Over/Under: Over 215 (-110) | Under 215 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Heat vs Cavaliers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the Moneyline in 65 of their last 86 games.
- The Miami Heat have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 48 of their last 78 games.
- The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 84 games.
Heat vs Cavaliers trend
The Cleveland Cavaliers have covered the Spread in 50 of their last 84 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Cavaliers.
How to watch Heat vs Cavaliers
| Location | Rocket Arena |
| Date | Sunday, 4-20-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Heat vs Cavaliers latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
