The Golden State Warriors don't seem overly concerned with their ho-hum regular-season performance – but there's a good chance they'll be up for Friday's encounter as they take on the host Milwaukee Bucks. The Warriors are coming off consecutive one-sided victories over bottom feeders Cleveland and Atlanta but remain below .500 on the road and are slight underdogs against the Bucks, who throttled the Detroit Pistons by 27 last time out but are just 9-7 since their 7-0 start. **video
Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5, 239.5)
QUICK-HITTER
Friday's game pits two of the NBA's top three scoring offenses against one another, with the Bucks averaging an NBA-best 121.1 points per game and the Warriors sitting third at 116.8. The Warriors were offensively dominant from the get-go in the wins over the Hawks and Cavaliers, scoring a combined 65 first-quarter points in those games. The Bucks' 29.7 first-quarter points per game rank behind only the Philadelphia 76ers league-wide and are two-tenths a point ahead of third-place Golden State. There will be first-quarter buckets a-plenty in this one, so we're leaning toward the Over on the 1Q total.
Prediction: First-quarter total - Over 62 (-110)
FIRST HALF BET
With the first-half spread a virtual toss-up, this one comes down to which team bettors believe will go into the break with the lead. And to that end, the Bucks represent the superior play for a couple of reasons. Their +5.2 first-half margin is third best in the NBA, behind only the league-leading Toronto Raptors and Denver Nuggets. That mark climbs to +5.4 in the first half of Milwaukee's home games. Golden State's +1.9 first-half scoring differential ranks eighth-best, but that number dips to +1.7 away from Oracle Arena. It's a slight edge, but one that makes Milwaukee a strong choice on the first-half spread.
Prediction: Milwaukee -0.5 first-half spread (-110)
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TEAM/PLAYER BET
The Warriors come into this one having surrendered at least 110 points in five of their past six games, with their only half-decent defensive effort in that span coming against a 5-19 Cavaliers team averaging fewer than 103 points per game. Prior to that win over Cleveland, each of Golden State's previous five opponents scored above their season average. With the Bucks averaging an absurd 122.1 points per game at home – and expected to get offensive spark plug Khris Middleton back after he missed the previous game with a personal issue – we don't see the Bucks not surpassing their team total here.
Prediction: Milwaukee over 120.5 points (-110)
FULL-GAME TOTAL
The Bucks capitalize on misses more than any opponent in the NBA, leading the way in both defensive rebounds (40.5) and total boards per game (50.3). But you can't rebound a made shot – and the Warriors do that better than anyone, coming into Friday's marquee matchup shooting a league-best 49.7 percent from the field. And wouldn't you know it, the Bucks are right there with them at 48.7 percent from the floor. Don't expect to see much lock-down defense in this one. It should be a real treat for fans of high-scoring games – and over bettors certainly won't mind, either.
Prediction: Over 239.5 (-110)
FULL-GAME SIDE
Milwaukee has given Golden State trouble in the past, even before the Bucks rose to prominence in the Eastern Conference. The Warriors are just 4-12-1 ATS in their past 17 encounters with the Bucks, and have yet to hit their stride this season, particularly outside Oakland. Milwaukee has been terrific at the brand-new Fiserv Forum, and are 10-4-1 ATS in their previous 15 games dating back to the end of last season. Golden State's defense hasn't been able to keep up with the scoring, and that should spell disaster against the most dangerous offensive team in the NBA.
Prediction: Milwaukee -1.5 (-110)
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