The Cleveland Cavaliers’ backcourt was big in Game 1 of their Eastern Conference quarterfinal, with three guards scoring 27 or more points. One of those hot hands belonged to Darius Garland, who poured in 27 and made five of the 18 triples Cleveland knocked down in its 21-point win over the Miami Heat.
Expect Miami to adjust its defensive approach for Game 2, with an emphasis on protecting the perimeter, I see this as an opportunity for playmaking from Garland as the player prop pick to target.
He's the focus of my Heat vs. Cavaliers predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, April 23.
Who will win Heat vs Cavaliers Game 2?
The Miami Heat must pick their poison when it comes to this Cleveland Cavaliers attack. Cleveland’s perimeter players torched Miami with three guards scoring 27+ points in Game 1. If the Heat get their heels above the 3-point arc on defense, they could succumb to Cleveland’s interior size. The Cavs take a 2-0 lead to South Beach.
Heat vs Cavaliers prediction
My best bet: Darius Garland Over 5.5 assists (-145 at bet365)
Darius Garland, along with Donovan Mitchell and reserve guard Ty Jerome, made up more than 70% of Cleveland’s total output in Game 1.
That trio knocked down 12 of the 18 threes made by the Cavaliers, which will have the Heat paying extra attention to outside shooters on Wednesday. Miami will get its heels above the 3-point arc, which opens an opportunity for a guy like Garland to exploit that aggressive approach and drive into the heart of the defense.
On the season, Garland is among the more attacking guards in the league, sitting 12th in drive rate. That ability to blow past defenders, get into the paint, and collapse a defense is what makes Garland a dangerous playmaker. From there, he can kick to open shooters or dump down to Cleveland’s standout bigs, who have a significant edge against a smaller Miami lineup.
Garland finished with just five assists in Game 1, coming in below his total of 6.5 dimes, but took on more of a scoring role in that victory. On the season, he averages just shy of seven assists, and before the playoffs, Garland had recorded 6+ helpers in 15 of his final 20 outings.
Player projections for Game 2 call for closer to seven assists from Garland, with my number at 6.8 dimes. Given that forecast, the Over 5.5 assists should be priced around -200, which makes the -145 vig go down a little smoother.
And with some books as high as Over 5.5 -183 and given that passing projection, I’ll also sprinkle a little cash on Garland’s milestone market of 7+ assists at +130.
Heat vs Cavaliers same-game parlay
Darius Garland Over 5.5 assists
Jarrett Allen Over 11.5 points
Tyler Herro Over 2.5 threes
Darius Garland gets to the middle of the paint and makes plays for Cleveland with projections closer to seven assists.
Jarrett Allen will find more space to operate inside with models calling for 13 or more points in Game 2.
The big spread writes a game script that has the Heat trailing and Tyler Herro chucking from long range. Miami has to do a better job of creating off-the-ball shot opportunities for Herro.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Heat vs Cavaliers odds
Heat vs Cavaliers live odds
Heat vs Cavaliers opening odds
- Spread: Miami +12 | Cleveland -12
- Moneyline: Miami +500 | Cleveland -700
- Over/Under: Over 216 | Under 216
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Heat vs Cavaliers spread and Over/Under analysis
• Bookies opened Cleveland as a 12.5-point home favorite, and that slimmed a bit to -12 with some interest in Miami early on.
• The Over/Under total hit the board at 216 points and took a nose dive down to 212 points before ticking up to 212.5 O/U.
• According to Covers Consensus, 51% of picks are grabbing all the points with the Heat while 60% of total picks are taking the Over.
Heat vs Cavaliers trend
Heading into Tuesday’s action, double-digit playoff favorites are 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS the past two postseasons. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs Cavaliers.
How to watch Heat vs Cavaliers
| Location | Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Wednesday, 4-23-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV |
FDSN - Ohio, FDSN - Sun |
Heat vs Cavaliers latest injuries
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