The Houston Rockets were lucky they did not lose by more than 10 in Game 1. When you shoot 21% from deep against the Golden State Warriors, things aren't usually that close.
But Houston won at the free-throw line and on the glass, a mentality that not only kept Game 1 close but could also loom large for Game 2.
My Warriors vs. Rockets predictions and NBA picks do not need Houston to start hitting its shots tonight. Alperen Sengun starred even amid that offensive failure.
Tip comes from Toyota Center in Houston at 9:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, April 23.
Who will win Warriors vs Rockets Game 2?
If the Houston Rockets can shoot better than 6-for-29 from deep, they should be in good position tonight. Much of that misery came from Fred VanVleet, going an ugly 2-for-13. No one will ask him not to shoot, but he should recognize his stroke has been off since returning from an ankle injury in mid-March.
Houston has size on the Golden State Warriors. It has a defensive advantage too, no matter how much Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler may preen. It simply cannot shoot that terribly again.
A regression to the mean in Game 2 should lead to an evened series.
Warriors vs Rockets prediction
My best bet: Alperen Sengun Over 20.5 points (-115 at bet365)
The basketball universe does not yet properly appreciate Alperen Sengun. The Turkish big man has quicker feet and more touch than recognized. He is a presence on the glass, and his post moves are thorough.
Sengun did not average 20 points this season, and he does not shoot much from deep. On paper, it is obvious why the basketball universe does not embrace his offensive abilities. But this series may change that.
Sengun went 11-for-18 in Game 1, pouring in 26 points while the next highest-scoring Rocket managed just 11 points.
VanVleet may again struggle shooting. He really has not looked right in the month-plus of his return. And he pretty much never enjoys a mismatch.
But Sengun has a mismatch on pretty much every possession against Golden State. The Warriors start Draymond Green at center and played Kevon Looney for fewer than nine minutes on Sunday. For all his bellowing, Green is not the defensive presence he once was, and Sengun capitalized on that.
Sengun is unlikely to score enough to force Steve Kerr to pivot to more of Looney, but that may be an adjustment Houston should try to force. More likely, Golden State is willing to suffer Sengun’s cuts two points by two points. That math problem typically tilts toward the team with Steph Curry. But that approach can still benefit our wallets.
Warriors vs Rockets same-game parlay
Alperen Sengun Over 20.5 points
Fred VanVleet Under 2.5 3-pointers
Rockets -3
VanVleet first hurt his ankle on Feb. 1 against Brooklyn. He promptly reaggravated that leg in his first game back on March 1. He returned for good on March 12, and since then VanVleet has shot 36.2% from deep while attempting 7.5 threes per game.
Making 2.7 per game is decent and something that could keep the Houston offense afloat, but he has shot terribly too often. Remove going 9-for-11 at Miami on March 21 and the other 13 games saw VanVleet shoot 30.9% from deep on 7.2 attempts per game, making 2.2 per game.
At some point, even someone as rightfully confident as VanVleet needs to notice his shooting is off right now. He is uncomfortable shooting. And better restraint there may have been all Houston needed to win Game 1. That added desperation in Game 2 justifies the spread moving a point toward the Rockets.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Warriors vs Rockets odds
Warriors vs Rockets live odds
Warriors vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: Golden State +2.5 | Houston -2.5
- Moneyline: Golden State +135 | Houston -160
- Over/Under: Over 206 | Under 206
Odds courtesy of bet365
Warriors vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Houston may have lost by 10 points in Game 1, but that was easily explained by VanVleet’s wretched shooting. The line moving to -3 for Game 2, compared to -2 in Game 1, makes sense.
- This total is notably lower than Game 1’s, falling from 213 to 203.5 on Tuesday afternoon.
- Across the entire playoffs, referees have allowed far more physical play so far. More physical play leads to Unders, a trend that oddsmakers are clearly still trying to gauge correctly.
Warriors vs Rockets trend
The last five games between these two have all gone Under their totals by an average of 29.4 points. Find more NBA betting trends for Warriors vs. Rockets.
How to watch Warriors vs Rockets
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, 4-23-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Warriors vs Rockets latest injuries
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