Running into the juggernaut that is the Oklahoma City Thunder is not helping the Memphis Grizzlies figure out their future.
Oklahoma City is designed perfectly not to care about Memphis’s strengths, and that showed up in Games 1 and 2.
My Thunder vs. Grizzlies predictions expect that to remain the case in Game 3, with one OKC star continuing to counter Memphis’s supposed new look.
Find out more in my NBA picks for Thursday, April 24.
Who will win Thunder vs Grizzlies Game 3?
Oklahoma City will win, and while this is not the best bet below, lowering this spread to -8.5 as this series heads to Memphis feels rather foolish. The Thunder won Game 2 by 19 points, easily covering the 14-point spread.
Shortening the spread by 5.5 points speaks to the switch in homecourt, but it does not adjust enough for Oklahoma City’s dominance thus far. That lack of adjustment must come from faith in the Grizzlies to respond at home, but when this resoundingly overmatched, should that much of a response really be expected?
Thunder vs Grizzlies prediction
My best bet: Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 threes (-115 at bet365)
Why change what works?
That applies both to this bet and to why the Oklahoma City City Thunder are glad to see Chet Holmgren make three 3-pointers in both Games 1 and 2 against the Memphis Grizzlies. In both instances, yours truly encouraged betting on the 7-foot-1 wing-masquerading-as-a-forward because his ability to pull Memphis’s bigs away from the rim renders the Grizzlies’ defense almost toothless.
That was why Holmgren took eight 3-pointers in Game 2. Sure, he made just three of them, though that cashed this prop, which has not moved in this series — but the fundamental want was to pull Zach Edey and Jaren Jackson Jr. from the rim. That opens up space for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to then attack.
Holmgren is a delightful chess piece in those regards. Particularly against Edey, Holmgren’s comfort on the perimeter destroys Memphis’s design.
This does not need to be pondered any further. There is no Grizzlies’ adjustment that will scare Holmgren off the arc. A game with a closer spread might even require him to play 35 minutes, which will only mean more chances to heave from long range.
The greatest worry may be that Holmgren could cool off on the road. Role players tend not to shoot as well away from home. Then again, Holmgren is far more than a role player, and his late-season surge saw as much success away from Oklahoma City as in the familiar venue.
Holmgren hit 44.4% of his threes in the last month of the regular season, hitting multiple in six of those 12 games, now eight of 14 when including the playoffs and five of his last six. That includes going 54.5% from deep in five games on the road, and he should not be bothered by heading to Memphis.
Thunder vs Grizzlies same-game parlay
Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 threes
Zach Edey Under 10.5 rebounds
Thunder -8.5
A Game 1 props article offered a quick rule of thumb: “Every time this handicapper is assigned a Grizzlies game this postseason, an Edey Under will come with it.”
Blame Holmgren. He plays Edey off the court.
Holmgren is far more physical than given credit for, cutting into some of Edey’s purpose right there, and his offensive skill set drags the massive rookie away from the hoop, rendering his best assets moot. If Edey cannot defend the rim or crash the boards, he drags down Memphis.
Even in Game 2, nominally competitive into the fourth quarter, Edey played only 26 minutes and snagged just seven rebounds. For context: Jackson played 34 minutes, Santi Aldama played 30 minutes, and even Marvin Bagley III logged 11.
Compromising the Grizzlies’ roster design that thoroughly explains why there is such quick faith in the Thunder to cover this three-bucket spread.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Thunder vs Grizzlies odds
Thunder vs Grizzlies live odds
Thunder vs Grizzlies opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -8.5 | Memphis +8.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -360 | Memphis +280
- Over/Under: Over 227 | Under 227
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Grizzlies spread and Over/Under analysis
- Grant a homecourt advantage of about 2.5 points. That alone explains moving this spread five points from Game 2’s -14. But as Oklahoma City has now covered the spread in six straight games, maybe some more credit should be given to the Thunder.
- Dropping this total three points from Game 2’s O/U of 230 is an obvious choice. The last five meetings have fallen short of their totals by an average of 15.8 points.
Thunder vs Grizzlies trend
These two teams have met nine times in the last two seasons, and the Thunder have won all nine outright and eight of the nine against the spread. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Grizzlies.
How to watch Thunder vs Grizzlies
| Location | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date | Thursday, 4-24-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network - Southeast - Memphis, FanDuel Sports Network - Oklahoma |
Thunder vs Grizzlies latest injuries
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