It’s four on the floor day in the NCAA Tournament, and by bettors’ estimations, the lines are spot-on. Covers checks in on the action and line movement for the Final Four, with insights from Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading at William Hill US in Las Vegas, and D.J. Fields, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu. **video
No. 11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers vs. No. 3 Michigan Wolverines – Open: -6; Move: -5; Move: -5.5
The Sister Jean Show resumes when the first national semifinal tips off at 6:09 p.m. ET, with Loyola-Chicago looking to continue its surprising run. The Ramblers won the South Region, which lost its top four seeds in the tourney’s first weekend. In the region final, Loyola-Chicago (32-5 SU, 23-9-1 ATS) dumped No. 9 seed Kansas State 78-62 as a 1-point underdog for its 14th consecutive win (11-3 ATS).
Michigan is almost equally hot, winning its last 13 games while going 10-2-1 ATS in that span to join the party today in San Antonio. The Wolverines (32-7 SU, 24-12-2 ATS) edged No. 9 seed Florida State 58-54 to push as 4-point chalk in the West Region final.
William Hill, with dozens of shops around Las Vegas among more than 100 across Nevada, opened the Wolverines -6 last Sunday, quickly dipped to -5 and went back to -5.5 over the past 24 hours.
“We’re dead-even to the game. Decent action, and it’s two-way action,” Bogdanovich said, adding that even he’s enjoying the Ramblers’ run. “We’d lose on the futures book with Loyola winning the title, but I’m still rooting for Loyola. It’s too good a story not too.”
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Bookmaker.eu opened Michigan -6 last Saturday and went to 5 by Sunday, but has been steady at 5.5 since Tuesday.
“The sharp action has already come in for Loyola vs. Michigan, so today we are looking for the public to weigh in,” Shields said. “Smart money took advantage of early line movements, as we have wiseguys holding both Loyola +6 and Michigan -5. We may move half a point in either direction today to try to write back a bet, but 5.5 is where we want to be. We have seen the total inching up to 130.5, as a slight consensus on the Over seems to be forming.”
Bookmaker opened the total at 128, while William Hill opened at 128.5 and has climbed to 130.
“We definitely need the Under right now, but that could change,” Bogdanovich said.
No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 1 Villanova Wildcats – Open: -5; Move: None
Following the first semifinal, a battle of No. 1 seeds ensues for the second spot in Monday night’s championship game. Villanova, which won the title two years ago, rolled through the East Region with a 4-0 SU and ATS mark. The Wildcats (34-4 SU, 26-12 ATS) dropped No. 3 seed Texas Tech 71-59 as a 6-point fave to head into the Final Four on a nine-game win streak (7-2 ATS).
Kansas lived up to its No. 1 seed by winning the Midwest Region. The Jayhawks got a late 3-pointer to force overtime against No. 2 seed Duke in the region final, and went on to an 85-81 victory catching 3.5 points.
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“A lot less action here, because that’s the later game. There’s twice as much money on Loyola-Michigan as on Kansas-Villanova,” Bogdanovich said. “We opened five, and not one move all week. We’re dead-even to this one as well.”
Bogdanovich noted that betting on the total is solid two-way, too, opening at 155 and dipping slightly to 154.5 Friday, and he said William Hill does well in the futures book with either team advancing.
Bookmaker.eu was at -5 all week before poking up to 5.5 briefly this morning, then going back to 5.
“The smart money remains divided, and that means an easy day at the office,” Fields said. “We are looking at balanced action from the wiseguys, so as long as the final score doesn't fall on 5, we get to sit back and let the pros bet against each other. The lack of a consensus from both the public and pros has made this one of the easier Final Fours to book in recent years.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
