Before recording the national championship preview of Covers Bracket Breakdown, the three analysts were discussing this spread, favoring the Florida Gators by a point against the Houston Cougars.
Why is Florida favored? All three of us had wondered it.
Houston is the better team by every advanced metric. The Cougars are also the better team of late, even as the Gators have surged since early February. Houston has stacked more impressive wins in the NCAA Tournament, too, beating three Top-10 teams and four in the Top 15, per KenPom’s efficiency ratings.
Then why is Florida favored?
Perhaps sportsbooks have significant exposure on the Gators’ national title futures. Maybe they are protecting against the public’s understandable faith in Walter Clayton Jr. Whatever the reason, this spread prefers the wrong team.
So this "why Houston will beat Florida" article may be more obvious than usual. It is always written to give an argument for the underdog. Well, this underdog shouldn’t be the underdog for the purposes of our March Madness picks. That is the real first reason Houston will beat Florida.
Three reasons why Houston will beat Florida in the National Championship Game
1. Fitness on a short turnaround
This is not a thought often baked into a college basketball line, but it should be here. Most of the time, the world does not worry about fitness in college basketball games because 1) these are 18-23-year-olds, so how tired can they be? And 2) college basketball teams rarely play two games within three days.
But Florida has played badly in the second game of both weekends thus far in the NCAA Tournament. It escaped UConn because the Huskies could not make an open 3-pointer in the closing minutes. It escaped Texas Tech because the Red Raiders could not make a front-end free throw in the closing minutes.
Houston will not make either of those mistakes, not as the best 3-point shooting team in the country that made some clutch free throws on Saturday night to top Duke.
The Gators committed an excess of turnovers in those two games, on 18.2% of their possessions against the Huskies and 16.9% against the Red Raiders. Compare that to Florida’s season-long average of 15.6%, and those mistakes stand out. Realize that Houston forces turnovers on 20.9% of opponents’ possessions, and Florida's mishaps become concerning.
Is it a scouting weakness or a fitness one? Either way, the Cougars will capitalize. It takes more than two days to game plan for this suffocating defense, the No. 1 defense in the country by a growing margin. And no team in the country is in better shape than Houston; every player on the roster can run a 5:45 mile or faster.
The Cougars play more players and are more comfortable in a physical matchup than the Gators. Every key of this game — offensive rebounding, 3-point shooting — hinges on effort and legs. Houston has an edge there, one it should fully capitalize on unlike UConn and Texas Tech.
2. Clutch experience
Look beyond the Cougars’ dramatic comeback against Duke. Look at most of the season. Since Dec. 1, Houston is 8-1 outright in games decided by six points or fewer, not to mention 11-0 straight up in games with spreads within nine points.
Clearly, the Cougars do not rattle. Chalk that up to fitness again. Players are less likely to make mental mistakes when they are not gasping for air (there is an argument to be made here about referees and their fitness, but that is a different conversation).
Florida has done well in this regard, now 6-3 outright in games decided by six points or fewer, but no one is better in the clutch than Houston.
When games get tight, the Cougars know to rely on what they do best: play defense.
In the Big 12 title game, Houston trailed Arizona by one with 5:32 left. The Wildcats did not make another field goal, falling short of their team total by half a point. In the Sweet 16, Houston clung to a two-point lead against Purdue with 4:17 left. The Boilermakers then went 2-of-6 from the field to fall 1.5 points short of their team total. And on Saturday night, Houston trailed Duke by 13 points with 10:31 left. The Blue Devils made just one more field goal, ending 3.5 points short of their team total.
If this title game is just remotely competitive late, the Cougars demand your trust.
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3. Wear and tear on Florida’s inside
Alex Condon’s complete lack of aggressiveness in the Final Four belied how much his ankle injury is bothering him. The 6-foot-11 center scored one point on four shots and grabbed just four rebounds in 23 minutes. He actively did not want the ball in his hands.
Combine Condon’s struggles with Thomas Haugh’s possible foul worries, and the Gators suddenly lack much of an interior presence. They need a stout one to combat the Cougars on the glass and perhaps put some of Houston’s most relentless defenders into foul trouble.
Condon is Florida’s best rebounder by far with Haugh his most reliable complement. The two are the only Gators who regularly draw fouls.
If Condon is not full-go — and he isn’t — then Florida’s offense becomes increasingly one-dimensional. As well as Clayton has played, no one can attack Houston’s defense on their own. If Condon again shirks shooting and struggles on the glass, the Gators may be doomed when the Cougars’ defense once again tightens its vice grip.
