When it comes to games as big as the National Championship, getting your bets in early does not matter as much as usual. These lines do not move as much.
Too much is known about the Houston Cougars and the Florida Gators. Very literally, we have never known more about them than we do right now. Too much money is down on this game, no other college basketball game remains to draw some action.
So if you have put off betting on the March Madness finale, you are not much worse off. Even the spread has hardly moved, still stuck with the Cougars as one-point underdogs on Monday afternoon, hinting at a true pick’em capacity.
Let’s rattle off some last-minute Houston vs. Florida predictions and March Madness picks to buttress your betting card before tip at 8:50 ET on Monday, April 7.
Last-minute National Championship bets for Florida vs Houston
Houston moneyline (-110 at bet365)
All three analysts on the Covers Bracket Breakdown side with the Houston Cougars pulling off this “upset.” Advanced metrics all favor Houston. The sportsbooks setting the Florida Gators as a one-point favorite (-110 at bet365 as of 2:00 p.m. ET on Monday) is unexpected, at the least, and perhaps largely a hedge against futures exposure on the Gators.
There is value in taking Houston, simply enough.
But if you want a quick handicap to satisfy your procrastinated needs: The Cougars are the more experienced team that has been tested more often in clutch moments. Houston is 8-1 outright in games decided by six points or fewer since Dec. 1, as well as 11-0 straight up in games with spreads within nine points.
The Cougars have a generational defense, one that could end up being the best in the last decade compared to the season’s average defense.
And Houston has more reliable controllable factors in its emphasis on protecting the ball and crashing the offensive glass.
The singular counterargument would be that Florida has the best player on the court in Walter Clayton Jr., but that is putting a lot of faith in one man against a defense designed to force bad shots.
J’Wan Roberts to score first basket (+700 at bet365)
Just because you waited to place your bets does not mean one cannot cash quickly. Betting Houston senior forward J’Wan Roberts to get the game’s first basket is a bet, in part, on an offensive rebound. There is value in that thought.
Roberts collects nearly 10% of the Cougars’ missed shots when he is on the court, and many of those directly led to his 161 two-point field goals this year, hitting exactly 50% of his shots.
Roberts is Houston’s best inside presence, and establishing him early will help the Cougars gauge the health of Florida sophomore center Alex Condon’s ankle. Doubting that viability will play a factor in both tonight’s game and in a few bets here.
Covers Florida vs Houston betting tools
- Florida vs. Houston prediction
- Florida vs. Houston prop picks
- Florida vs. Houston same-game parlay
- Florida vs. Houston AI predictions
- Walter Clayton Jr. prop picks
- L.J. Cryer prop picks
- March Madness picks
- March Madness odds
- March Madness odds boosts
J’Wan Roberts double-double (+700 at bet365)
First of all, Roberts notched a double-double against Duke, 12 boards complementing 11 points, despite the Blue Devils having one of the biggest frontcourts in the country.
In the Covers Bracket Breakdown title preview, yours truly took Roberts to have at least seven rebounds at -115 at bet365, now at -120. That continued praise of Houston’s most veteran presence ties to his repeated showings in games when the Cougars actually have to worry about competition.
In the last six games in which he played with Houston favored by no more than nine points, Roberts has averaged 8.5 rebounds and 10.5 points. He has found a double-double in just two of those six, but two out of six is still a rate that encourages this bet at +700.
If Condon is limited — and his clear discomfort with the ball in his hands against Auburn argues very strongly that Condon is far from ready on the court right now — then Roberts will see both more playing time and more chances.
Walter Clayton Jr. 25+ points (+235 at bet365)
Someone in a Florida uniform has to score tonight, and it is most likely to be Walter Clayton Jr., the star that got the Gators through their last two close calls.
Clayton has scored 30 and 34 points in his last two games, his first time north of 23 points since mid-January. Florida has rarely needed him to pour it in, a roster balanced with viable offensive pieces in Alijah Martin (13.9 points per game in SEC play), Will Richard (12.6), and Alex Condon (11.5). Even Thomas Haugh averaged 10.2 points in conference play.
But Clayton has turned it on in the last week, something the Gators needed to slip by Texas Tech and Auburn. Now they face an even better defense, possibly with Condon further limited.
That should put the weight on Clayton’s shoulders. His points prop is at 19.5, the Over priced at -120 at bet365. Asking for five more points at +235 is reasonable value.
A late Houston lead would help the cause given Clayton is the Gator most likely to chuck from deep out of desperation. A late Florida lead would help the cause given Clayton is the Gator most likely to be sent to the free throw line.
