It’s the business end of the Champions League with the semi-finals starting this Tuesday and a gigantic clash between Arsenal and PSG gets us underway at the Emirates.
Arsenal beat the reigning champions Real Madrid to reach this stage, but PSG pose a big test and are arguably the team of the tournament so far. However, our Arsenal vs PSG predictions think Arsenal’s defense will be the difference maker.
Be sure to read my Champions League picks for Tuesday, April 29, with kick-off at 3:00 p.m. ET on CBS.
Arsenal vs PSG picks and predictions
My best bet: Arsenal moneyline (+115 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Arsenal may have fumbled the opportunity to win their domestic league but they have a real chance of silverware and capturing their first Champions League title this season.
Many were worried about their chances against Real Madrid in the last round, but they needn’t have been. Arsenal didn’t just beat Madrid. They humbled them, humiliated them at the Emirates, and then made them look dreadful at the Bernabeu. They won 5-1 on aggregate and, in truth, that scoreline probably flatters Madrid.
Meanwhile, PSG reached this semi-final stage after they dismantled Liverpool in the Round of 16. They were sensational and their performance across both legs was arguably one of the best and most dominant in recent UCL history.
It’s hugely concerning for PSG just how nervous and how rattled they looked when Villa scored their first goal. Their inability to deal with heavy pressure is one of the reasons Arsenal need to be considered favorites.
As for Tuesday’s game itself, the Emirates will be rocking. The Parisians are always loud visiting guests but Arsenal fans, for the first time in its history, have turned the Emirates into a real fortress, a genuinely intimidating place to play, in the Champions League.
Arsenal will still be without Kai Havertz and Gabriel Magalhaes but the biggest loss is the suspended Thomas Partey, who was integral against Madrid. They still have enough to beat this PSG team, though, and are probably the worst matchup for PSG to face.
Firstly, Arsenal’s strength is out wide. Bukayo Saka and — to a lesser extent — Gabriel Martinelli are scary. Saka tormented Madrid and by offering so much threat out wide, it means Achraf Hakimi and Nuno Mendes will need to be very careful about joining attacks in case it leaves the team open. Without their attacking fullbacks, who were so dangerous against Liverpool and Villa, PSG will be easier to deal with.
Then you need to consider Arsenal’s ability at set pieces. They became a meme in the Premier League earlier this season due to the amount of goals they scored from set plays, which will be a huge advantage.
A staggering 38% of the goals that PSG have conceded this season have come from free-kicks and corners. Even this past week they gave up a goal to Nice from a set piece. Arsenal have a great free-kick and corner taker in Declan Rice and a lot of height. Don’t be surprised to see PSG struggle to stop them aerially.
PSG are, for my money, the most exciting team to watch in Europe, and their front three of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembele, and one of Bradley Barcola or Désiré Doué is terrifying. However, Arsenal have the meanest defense in the Premier League and have kept six clean sheets in 12 Champions League games this season.
When these teams met in the group stages, Arsenal won 2-0 at this very stadium. PSG have improved since then, adding Kvaratskhelia, but the result should be the same, even if the game is far closer. Strap yourself in. This is going to be an incredible game.
Arsenal vs PSG same-game parlay (SGP)
Arsenal moneyline
Bukayo Saka to score or assist
Nuno Mendes to be booked
We’re going to add Saka to either score or assist. The 23-year-old has been electric in this year’s Champions League, terrorizing Real Madrid in both legs of the quarter-final.
In seven UCL games, he’s scored five and assisted a further two, and has 16 goal contributions in 21 Premier League games for his club, too. He’s in great form and the clear danger man for Arsenal on Tuesday.
The final leg is for Saka’s opposite number, Nuno Mendes, to get booked. The PSG left-back will have the tough task of defending the backline and it’s a job that has a high chance of getting him booked.
Only one PSG player has committed more fouls than Mendes in the Champions League so far, and now he’s up against somebody who gave Real Madrid nightmares a few weeks ago. Given how often Mendes gets forward, it can lead to Saka breaking on the defense, and Mendes needing to commit a foul to bring him down.
Mendes is tied for the most yellow cards in the UCL for PSG this season with three, and there’s a very high chance that Tuesday sees a fourth.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Arsenal vs PSG odds
Arsenal vs PSG live odds
Arsenal vs PSG opening odds
- Moneyline: Arsenal +110 | PSG +260
- Draw: +225
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-110) | Under 2.5 (-110)
Arsenal vs PSG side and Over/Under analysis
- Arsenal are unbeaten in 12 games across all competitions.
- PSG lost to Nice at the weekend, their second defeat in four games.
- These teams have met in competitive games five times in their history, with three draws and two Arsenal victories.
- There have been Over 2.5 goals in eight of Arsenal’s 12 Champions League games.
How to watch Arsenal vs PSG
| Location | Emirates Stadium, London, England |
| Date | Tuesday, 4-29-2025 |
| Time | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
| Weather | Mostly sunny, 66.5 degrees, 5.8 mph western winds |
Arsenal vs PSG key injuries
Arsenal: Gabriel Jesus FWR (Out), Takehiro Tomiyasu DEF (Out), Kai Havertz FWR (Out), Gabriel Magalhaes CB (Out), Jorginho CM (Out), Thomas Partey CM (Out), Mikel Merino MID/FWR (Questionable), Riccardo Calafiori DEF (Questionable), Ben White RB (Questionable).
PSG: None.
Not intended for use in MA.
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