The Ballon d'Or odds are heating up, and Ousmane Dembélé has emerged as the frontrunner.
After leading Paris Saint-Germain to a Champions League title, the electric winger is the slight favorite to win football’s top individual prize in 2025.
Hot on his heels is teenage sensation Lamine Yamal, sitting in second at +100, as the Barcelona star continues to turn heads with his breakout performances.
Join me as I break down the soccer odds for the 2025 Ballon d'Or.
Ballon d'Or 2025 winner odds
| Player |  |
|---|---|
 Ousmane Dembélé |
-138 |
 Lamine Yamal |
+100 |
 Mohamed Salah |
+2500 |
| Raphinha |
+3300 |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia |
+4000 |
| Pedri |
+4000 |
 Kylian Mbappe |
+2500 |
Odds as of 6-6.
2025 Ballon d'Or favorite
Ousmane Dembele Ballon d'Or odds
Ousmane Dembele is having a year to remember in the French capital.
The polarizing winger is among the most important reasons why PSG was able to win the treble, including their first-ever Champions League title.
He's scored 32 goals in 48 matches in all competitions, and he added two assists in the biggest Cup game of the season.
In his latest showdown with Lamine Yamal, Dembele was second best, which is why his odds have lengthened from -275 to -138.
Who will win the 2025 Ballon d'Or?
The list of candidates for the 2025 Ballon d'Or is long and filled with players with excellent qualities. If Dembele does not win it, here are a few players who may have a case:
Lamine Yamal
Lamine Yamal is the real deal. Every time he steps onto the pitch, he seems to break records. And as a potential Ballon d'Or finalist, he would be the youngest player to ever win the award, by over four years (Brazilian Ronaldo was 21 in 1997).
He was the youngest player to feature in last year's Euros, aged just 16 years and 338 days. And he even went as far as scoring in the semifinals against France, and lifting the trophy for Spain, which earned him UEFA's Young Player of the Tournament honors.
His play has been godly at times this year, between scoring world-class goals, setting up his teammates, and dazzling with his dribbling, and he's a large reason why Barcelona won La Liga.
In his latest triumph, Yamal was excellent vs. France in the UEFA Nations League semifinal, scoring a pair of goals, and finishing with an 8.7 match rating.
Raphinha
There was a time not long ago when Barcelona fans were growing frustrated with Raphinha’s inconsistency.
But this season, the Brazilian winger has flipped the narrative, emerging as a driving force behind Barcelona’s success and a leading contender for individual honors as he guides his team into the Champions League semifinals.
Raphinha has racked up 13 goals in European competition and added 18 more in La Liga. He’s delivered in big moments, often changing games with a moment of brilliance.
Mohamed Salah
Mohamed Salah is putting together one of the finest scoring seasons of his Premier League career — 28 goals in 36 matches and still counting.
But while individual brilliance matters, football's biggest accolades often hinge on team success. Liverpool’s early exits from the Champions League and domestic cups have dimmed the spotlight just enough to hurt his Ballon d'Or chances.
Salah has everything you’d want in a world-class forward — pace, precision, consistency. And yet, it’s entirely possible he could end his career without ever lifting the game’s most prestigious individual award.
What is the Ballon d'Or?
The Ballon d'Or (Golden Ball) is the world's most prestigious men's soccer honor, awarded every year by France Football magazine. The Ballon d'Or is given to the player, worldwide, judged to have had the best individual season both at club level, as well as for his country.
When is the Ballon d'Or awarded?
The Top 3 for the honor will be revealed in early September, with the winner announced at the 69th annual Ballon d'Or ceremony in Paris on Monday, October 27.
Previous winners of the Ballon d'Or
| Year | Winner |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Rodri |
| 2023 | Lionel Messi |
| 2022 | Karim Benzema |
| 2021 | Lionel Messi |
| 2019 | Lionel Messi |
| 2018 | Luka Modric |
| 2017 | Cristiano Ronaldo |
| 2016 | Cristiano Ronaldo |
| 2015 | Lionel Messi |
| 2014 | Cristiano Ronaldo |
| 2013 | Cristiano Ronaldo |
| 2012 | Lionel Messi |
| 2011 | Lionel Messi |
Ballon d'Or FAQs
Ousmane Dembele is the favorite at -138, with Lamine Yamal right behind him at +100.
Lionel Messi has won the most Ballon d'Or trophies with eight, including three in the last five years.
Real Madrid and Barcelona lead the way with 12 winners each.
Soviet goalkeeper Lev Yashin (1963) remains the only goal keeper to win the award.
The Ballon d'Or will be awarded on Monday, October 27 at a soccer gala in Paris, France.
