Wembley plays host to the first of two FA Cup semifinals this Saturday, with Crystal Palace and Aston Villa meeting to determine who reaches next month’s final.
Both teams believe this is their time, but it’s going to be a cagey, tight game, and our Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa predictions expect the game to finish with under 2.5 goals.
Read on for my FA Cup free betting picks for Saturday, April 26, with kickoff at 12:15 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa picks and predictions
My best bet: Under 2.5 (-125 at bet365)
My analysis
Despite the Over 2.5 cashing in five of the last six meetings between these clubs, we're backing Under 2.5 — and a look at the underlying data will explain why.
Firstly, while these two teams have had strong performances over the past two months, their recent form isn’t quite as excellent. Crystal Palace haven’t won in four, with two draws in their most recent games. Meanwhile, Villa have suffered two defeats in their past five games.
As mentioned before, there’s no real home team, and with the equal amount of fans — 90,000 in total — it’s only going to add to the spectacle, and again, the tension involved in this game.
Back in the 2007/2008 season, the FA moved both semifinals for this competition to Wembley, where they've been played ever since. That was a decision that annoyed fans, as it undermined the achievement of reaching Wembley. However, since moving to his stadium, these games have been low-scoring.
A total of 34 semifinals have been played at Wembley. Of those 34 games, we’ve seen Under 2.5 goals land in regular time 22 times. This is likely due to several factors, including the occasion itself, playing in this famous stadium, and, most importantly, what’s at stake by winning the game.
Palace last played in this stadium nine years ago, in an FA Cup final they lost to Manchester United, while Villa lost in the EFL Cup final here to Man City in 2020. That long break since playing here, with the added pressure of reaching May’s showpiece game, should keep this game tight and cagey.
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 2.5
Draw
Morgan Rogers 1+ fouls
With the game featuring Under 2.5 goals, there’s an increased chance of a draw with two of the four possible results being draws. We’ve seen two of the past four FA Cup semifinals finish level at the end of regular time, with the importance of the game and the occasion lending itself to games going into extra time.
We’re also backing Morgan Rodgers to commit a foul. The Aston Villa man has had a great season, which has seen him earn international honours, and he’s an incredible attacking asset. However, he can sometimes be rash defensively, and in the league, he’s averaged 1.46 fouls per 90 minutes played.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa odds
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa live odds
 Crystal Palace |
 Aston Villa |
|
|---|---|---|
| +229 | Moneyline | +114 |
| +240 | Draw | +240 |
| Over 2.5 (+102) | Total | Under 2.5 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa side and Over/Under analysis
- Crystal Palace have lost just two of their past 11 games across all competitions. Aston Villa have lost just two of their past 12.
- The Under 2.5 has landed in 52.9% of Crystal Palace's games this season.
How to watch Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa
| Location | Wembley Stadium, London, UK |
| Date | Saturday, 4-26-2025 |
| Time | 12:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN+ |
| Weather | Cloudy. |
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa key injuries
Crystal Palace: Cheick Doucoure CM (Out), Ben Chilwell LB (Out).
Aston Villa: Axel Disasi CB (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
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