A first-time champion will be crowned on Monday night when the Virginia Cavaliers take on the Texas Tech Raiders in the 2019 NCAA Tournament national championship game at 9:20 p.m. ET.
Brandon DuBreuil has been covering the West Region and Texas Tech throughout the tournament, while Rohit Ponnaiya has been all over the South and its champion Virginia.**video
They go head-to-head, giving three reasons why Texas Tech or Virginia will cover, with the March Madness betting odds setting the Cavaliers as slim 1.5-point favorites.
TEXAS TECH RAIDERS VS VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (-1.5, 118)
THREE REASONS WHY TEXAS TECH COVERS
NO. 1 DEFENSE!
Well, obviously, as Texas Tech and Virginia boast two of the best defenses in the country but there are a couple of things that the Red Raiders do particularily well that will frustrate the Cavaliers.
The first is 3-point defense. The Red Raiders rank 11th in the nation in allowing opponents to shoot just 29.3 percent from behind the arc on the season and have allowed opponents to hit on just 31-of-117 attempts (26.5 percent) so far in the tournament. Virginia relies on the 3-ball for 35.4 percent of its total offense and that’s going to dry up on Monday night.
The second is that the Red Raiders just don’t allow teams to move the ball around. Texas Tech is one of the best teams in the nation at limiting team assists, allowing just 9.6 per game, the fourth-fewest in the nation. Heading into the Final Four, Michigan State was third in the nation with 18.7 assists per game and then managed just six against the Red Raiders. Virginia has been scoring in the tournament with solid ball movement and is averaging 14.3 assists per game in its last three.
This is going to be a defensive slugfest with a total that has already ticked down to 118 but the Red Raiders have the defensive edge in a couple of key categories which should help them to their first national title in school history.
NO. 2 JARRETT CULVER
Texas Tech needs a better overall performance from Jarrett Culver on Monday. The future NBA lottery prospect was clutch late in the game on Saturday, hitting a key 3-pointer 58 seconds remaining, but he finished the game with just 10 points on 3-of-12 shooting while also adding five boards and five assists. The Big 12 Player of the Year came into the tournament hot, however, averaging 21.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in four NCAA Tournament games prior to Minneapolis.
Virginia only lost three times all season and in two of those, it was because Zion Williamson dominated from inside the arc, hitting on 15-of-22 two-point attempts. Culver is not Williamson but he is at his best when he’s driving to the basket and not settling for outside shots. His ability to get to the rim should be a key factor that Texas Tech will look to exploit against the Cavaliers. Culver is by far the Red Raiders’ best player and expect him to bounce back with a big performance on Monday night.
NO. 3 LUCK RUNS OUT
Alright, someone has to say it: Virginia is downright lucky to be playing for the national championship on Monday night. That last sequence on Saturday was just silly, first with Ty Jerome getting away with a double-dribble before getting fouled and then the Cavaliers getting bailed out by Auburn’s Samir Doughty as he fouled Kyle Guy on his 3-point attempt with less than a second remaining (and yes, it was a foul). And don’t forget about how Virginia got to Minneapolis, needing a miraculous buzzer-beater from Mamadi Diakite to force overtime against Purdue in the Elite Eight.
Virginia’s luck runs out on Monday. Texas Tech is a runaway train at the moment that is destroying anything and everything in its path. The Red Raiders are 5-0 against the spread so far in the tournament and will get to 6-0 when they cover — and likely win outright — in the National Championship game on Monday night.
THREE REASONS WHY VIRGINIA COVERS
NO. 1 VIRGINIA KNOWS HOW TO WIN CLOSE GAMES
You have to be good to be lucky, as any sports bettor knows. A cynic might look at Virginia's last couple of results and see luck, but it takes more more than good fortune to win close games against quality teams like Purdue and Aubun.
Virginia has proved that when the chips are down they can win close battles. They have the tenacity to fight back from behind as they did against Purdue after trailing 25-16, and they had the mettle to close out a tight finish against an Auburn team that was out for blood in the final five minutes.
Virginia had its share of blowouts this season with an average scoring margin of +15.5 but they've also had a decent amount of close games with nine contests decided by six or fewer points. They went 8-1 in those games.
Most people think this championship game is going to be close and if it is, Virginia has the resiliency to win. With a spread this small, I'm more than comfortable taking them to cover as well.
NO. 2 DISIPLINE
Texas Tech aren't turnover machines by any stretch of the imagination, but they can't compare to the discipline of Virginia on either side of the ball. Virginia simply refuses to beat itself.
The Cavaliers commit just 14.3 fouls per game, the sixth fewest in the country, while Texas Tech sits near the middle of the pack with 17.3 which ranks 142nd.
UVA also rarely turns the ball over, ranking 11th in the nation in turnovers per possession, while TTU ranks 138nd. In a game that should be very close, a foul here and a turnover there will make all the difference.
NO. 3 REBOUNDING
During the tournament Texas Tech has played exceptionally well in almost every aspect of the game, except on the boards. The Raiders' rebounding rate of 50.9 percent ranks a modest 125th in the country and over their last three games that number has plummeted to 45.5 percent. Tech's second-leading rebounder Tariq Owens had what looked to be a nasty ankle injury against Michigan State but returned to the floor. It looks like nothing is going to keep Owens out of the lineup in the championship game, but ankle injuries are difficult to play on and could affect his rebounding ability.
Virginia ranks 18th in the country in rebounding rate at 53.9 percent, and should be able to limit TTU's chances on the offensive end.
Rebounding, turnovers, and clutch play, these are the things that win championships and Virginia's got the edge which should help them win and cover in Minneapolis.
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