The dominant topics of Super Bowl betting thus far are the 3.5-point swing in the spread and all those proposition bets. But what about the total? Covers checks in on the movement and action for that aspect, with insights from Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage; Jeff Davis, director of trading for Caesars Entertainment sportsbooks; and John Sheeran, risk manager for FanDuel Sportsbook at the Meadowlands.
Super Bowl
New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams – Open: 59.5; Move: 59; Move: 58.5; Move: 58; Move: 57.5; Move: 57; Move: 56.5
New England was an excellent Under bet throughout the regular season, with the total going low in 11 of 16 games. However, the Over cashed in both of the Patriots’ postseason games – though the Under was arguably the right side in the AFC Championship Game. After a Kansas City touchdown nine seconds into the fourth quarter, New England held a 17-14 lead in a matchup with a closing total of 56.
However, the two teams combined for another 37 points in a game that went to overtime, with the Pats winning 37-31.
Los Angeles was a dead-even 8-8 Over/Under in the regular season and went to 9-9 following its two playoff matchups. In the NFC Championship Game at New Orleans, the Rams rallied from a 13-0 deficit to tie it at 23 and force overtime, then won 26-23 as the contest fell below the closing total of 55.5 points.
MGM books, including Shelton’s home base at The Mirage, have seen plenty of Under activity for Sunday’s 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
“The total is dropping like a rock,” Shelton said Monday night. “On Saturday, the Under was getting hit repeatedly by sharp bettors. I was gonna leave the total at 57, but they wouldn’t leave the Under alone, so I had to move to 56.5.”
Shelton said wiseguys were hitting first-half Under on Saturday as well, taking that number from 28.5 to 27.5. But he said the rebound from the public is almost surely coming later this week.
“It always does,” Shelton said. “It’s a fast track indoors in Atlanta, no weather. I’d be shocked if it doesn’t close at 58 to 59. The pros are going to get overrun. By kickoff, we’ll need the Under for sure, with parlays and all that stuff. It would be a first if we need the Over in a Super Bowl, as far as I can recall.”
At Caesars books in Las Vegas, the total opened at 57.5 and charged to 59 in about 10 minutes. But the number has gradually dipped since the evening of Jan. 20, reaching 56.5 on Saturday morning.
“We took some early Over money, but we didn’t necessarily agree with the move,” Davis said. “As soon as we took a little Under money, we went right back to 57.5. Given the way that money has come in, we think that the Under is the right side. That being said, we don’t need to over-adjust, as the public Over money will keep filtering in.
“I think the total closes right around 56. I definitely don’t think the total surges upward. Barring a huge bet on the Under, we will need the Under, but not necessarily as much as normal.”
FanDuel Sportsbook had one of the lowest opening totals, starting at 56.5, and perhaps Sheeran was onto something, since that’s where the total is now. But it surged out of the gate to 58.5, before dialing down, just as it has everywhere else.
“Our traders made the total 56.5 and thought the market was too high,” Sheeran said. “We did see quite a lot of interest, so it moved up to 58.5, but the market consensus has it back to 56.5.”
FanDuel, much like every other book, expects the public to get on the Over as the week goes on, and in fact the money is already running 60 percent on the Over.
“I expect the total to close around 57, and I expect an 80/20 split,” Sheeran said. “We will need the Under.”
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
