Canada vs France Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Depth Aids Canada's Cause

The 2023 FIBA World Cup tips off on Friday, August 25 and our tournament coverage at Covers.com begins with a clash between two of the favorites to win the whole thing between Canada and France. France is coming off a silver medal at the Olympic games and has been one of the most consistently good international teams over the last decade.

The Canadians have been anything but consistent, but they’ve also put together the most talented team in the nation's history, spearheaded by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and RJ Barrett. Whoever loses on Friday will be just one bad shooting night away from massive tournament disappointment, so the stakes for this game could hardly be higher.

FIBA World Cup odds list France as a slight favorite, but our FIBA picks and predictions for Canada vs. France believe that though untested, the Canadians present too many matchup problems for the French.

Canada vs France odds

Canada		France
+2	Spread	-2
+105	Moneyline	-125
Over 167.5 (-110)	Total	Under 167.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on August 24, 2023.

Canada vs France picks and predictions

After what seems like an interminable wait since the end of the NBA season, many of the league’s biggest and brightest stars are back in action as the 2023 FIBA World Cup begins on Friday. Kicking things off is a huge matchup in Jakarta, Indonesia between Canada and France, and I believe the upstart Canadians are the better bet to win.

For one thing, the Canadians are deeper on NBA talent than any team in the tournament save the American and Australian teams. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, RJ Barrett, Dillon Brooks, Kelly Olynyk, Dwight Powell as well as many other active NBA talents on the roster, they looked impressive in the run up to the World Cup with gutsy overtime wins over defending champion Spain as well as a stacked Germany squad.

While Jamal Murray being unable to participate certainly puts a damper on their dreams of winning Olympic gold, this team is still talented enough to secure their first ever World Cup medal and should pose a stiff challenge to France.

While Canada is totally unproven, France is something of an international basketball powerhouse. France recently won silver at the Tokyo Olympics and bronze at the previous FIBA World Cup in China, with Rudy Gobert and Evan Fournier posing a potent one-two in international competition. 

Canada’s ability to adapt and throw out multiple offensive and defensive looks is going to be pivotal to their tournament success, and it’s going to be put to the test against France. I believe Canada is uniquely suited to disrupt Fournier and Gobert, and that they have more than enough firepower of their own to take advantage.

Gobert is a monster player internationally, but he also demonstrated some notable aging regression in his first season with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Last season was his first since 2015-16 where he was actually a net negative in terms of team points per possession. Fournier for his part was glued to the bench as other New York Knicks including his Barrett gobbled up all the available playing time.

But even the best versions of Gobert and Fournier would have trouble against this version of Canada. When Gobert is your best player, you are going to have a good defense, but you’re also going to be limited in how you can play. France is not going to be a switch defense, and they’re going to want Gobert to hang around the rim as much as possible on both ends.

Canada can play against Gobert with traditional centers including Dwight Powell or Naismith College Player of the Year award winner Zach Edey. Edey may be the only player in the tournament with a longer wingspan than the “Stifle Tower”, while Powell is an energetic rim runner and roll man.

But the real weapon the Canadians have against Gobert is the captain of the Canadian national team, Kelly Olynyk. Olynyk is an outstanding FIBA player and shone brightly through Canada’s contests in the lead up to the tournament. 

He’s a quick trigger stretch big, capable of sliding between the four and five spots and playing him at center against Gobert puts France in a difficult spot. Kelly demands to be guarded on the perimeter, pulling Gobert away from the rim and neutralizing his greatest value as a rim deterrent and a defensive rebounder. In turn that allows Barrett and SGA to do what they do best and rack up points in the paint.

Olynyk is not an incredible defender, but he’s big and strong enough that Gobert can’t simply go through him. Gobert’s on ball skills are so limited that Olynyk can neutralize him largely through smart positioning, and his limited lateral footspeed won’t be a huge issue.

Fournier meanwhile has to contend with the ball-hawking of Brooks. Brooks is one of the best wing defenders in the NBA, and All-NBA caliber guards routinely wilt under his constant physicality.

France does not have the same kind of answers to the play of SGA or RJ, and that’s why I believe Canada is a good bet to get the win on Friday. 

If you’re thinking of tailing me on my best bet, Caesar’s Sportsbook is offering a 25% odds boost for the games featuring Canada and the USA this weekend. That takes this bet from +100 to +125 (to a limit of $50).

My best bet: Canada moneyline (+100 at Caesars)

Canada vs France same-game parlay

Canada moneyline

Kelly Olynyk 12+ points

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 20+ points

++260 at DraftKings

For the first same-game parlay of the tournament, we’re going all in on Canada’s clearest path to victory over the slightly favored France. That means taking the Canadian moneyline at +105 and pairing that with Olynyk 12+ points as well as SGA 20+ points. 

That logic is pretty simple, if Canada is going to beat France, then Olynyk and Shai will have to perform. While Barrett has shot the ball well against Germany and Spain, he’s historically struggled against rim protectors of Gobert’s caliber. Olynyk will be gifted shots in order to draw Rudy away from the rim, and as we saw during the games against Germany, with Murray not participating in the tournament he’s entrusted to be on the ball a lot.

For his part, Shai is going to have to be a flat-out superstar for Canada to capture their first ever medal, and his ability to score from the in-between zones makes him a deadly weapon against a less athletic French perimeter defense.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Canada vs France spread and Over/Under analysis

The news that Jamal Murray would not be suiting up for the World Cup saw this line flip, from Canada originally favored as much as 2.5 points to where it sits now at most sportsbooks at France -1.5. While Jamal’s absence is certainly a detriment to Canada’s tournament chances, I believe he will not be as missed in this matchup. Canada still has by far the best player and has avenues to neutralize France’s best defender with Olynyk and their best offensive player with Brooks. 

The total has been set between 166.5 and 167.5, and I’d probably lean toward the Over. The Canadians have an offensive strategy that I believe should prove effective at neutralizing Gobert defensively and this game also features many other prolific scoring talents. 

SGA is one of the clubhouse leaders to lead the entire tournament in points per game, Barrett shined in the exhibition games, and Fournier is a FIBA killer. Fournier also played sparing this NBA season and should have plenty in the tank to expend on Friday.

On the other hand, these teams also have strong wing defenders. Shai is an underrated two-way player, and Brooks will do his best to make life hell on Fournier. France also has Nic Batum, who is a consistently solid “3-and-D” wing.

Another aspect that could be sizeable influence on the total is the amount of transition possessions. Gobert is a high turnover player, turning over on 16.9% of his NBA possessions last season per Cleaning the Glass. And Canada has a few players with fast hands and great anticipation, including Shai, who was fourth in steals per game in the NBA last season at 1.6 per game. Gobert is also empowered to try a little more on offense with the French team, which can naturally lead to more giveaways.

Canada vs France game info

Canada vs France key injuries

Canada: Jamal Murray G (Out).
France: Frank Ntilikina G (Out)

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