Canada vs Spain Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Spaniards Jump Out to Early Lead

The script writers for the 2023 FIBA World Cup chose chaos. Phase two of group play looked like it was going to see fewer upsets than the first, and for Canada and Spain to both advance, they simply had to win their final games in which both were double-digit favorites. Well, guess what didn't happen?

Spain first fell to Latvia following a fourth-quarter collapse, and shortly afterward Brazil grinded out a narrow win over the most dominant team in the tournament.

Although the knockout rounds are yet to officially begin, parity between two of the remaining groups means that there will be four win-or-go-home games on Sunday. The biggest in doubt is the showdown between Spain and Canada, who have been the second pick to win gold according to FIBA World Cup odds since their early demolition of France. 

My betting picks and predictions for Canada vs. Spain expect the Spaniards to get off to an early lead in what should be a bonafide thriller.

Canada vs Spain odds

Canada		Spain
-6.5 (-104)	Spread	+6.5 (-122)
-280	Moneyline	+220
Over 169.5 (-106)	Total	Under 169.5 (-120)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on September 3, 2023.

Canada vs Spain picks and predictions

Spain is perhaps no longer the titan they were when they had the Gasol brothers running the show, but that doesn't mean they’re no longer dangerous. Spain's new generation of contributors are still NBA-caliber players, with Willie Hernangomez and Usman Garuba featuring prominently alongside Santi Aldama of the Memphis Grizzlies. This is a team with plenty of NBA talent — even with the Gasols’ retiring and Ricky Rubio stepping away from basketball for mental health reasons.

Spain's veterans from their golden generation of players are still highly decorated guards, including Sergio Llull and Rudy Fernández. Llull and Fernandez are crafty, highly skilled players with piles of medals and accolades from their time atop European basketball. They’ve aged out of being the full-time on-ball forces they once were, but they’re a veteran steadying presence and a highly skilled tandem, the kind that youthful Canada sorely lacks.

They also help inject Spain’s patented style of play into the team. Despite losing outstanding passers in Rubio and the Gasol brothers, Spain are still the best passing team in the tournament by averaging 27.8 assists per game. Having great continuity helps, but they also clearly put an emphasis on ball movement as one of the foundations of their program. Canada by contrast can get stagnant in the halfcourt, making them easier to defend. 

Still, Canada have an outstanding closer in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and they’ve shown they typically get better as the game goes on. That’s why I like the significant plus money value available to take Spain’s first quarter moneyline.

Canada lost the first quarter to France by four points, Brazil by three points, and Latvia by ten. They would eventually get to double-digit leads over all of them even though they ultimately lost to Brazil, but it’s clear that Canada has been off to sluggish starts as their strengths shine over the course of 40 minutes. 

With Spain having a serious edge in these kinds of moments, I believe it’s more likely than not Canada gets off to a slower start than their more experienced rivals.

My best bet: Spain first quarter moneyline (+142 at FanDuel)

Canada vs Spain spread and Over/Under analysis

Canada opened as -4.5 favorites over Spain, quickly shot up to -6.5, then came down to -6 at some sportsbooks. That movement accurately reflects the uncertainty inherent to this matchup, with strong arguments in favor of either team.

Of the two losses Canada dropped, their game to Brazil was by far the more troubling. It showed how a team with less talent, but with a commitment to physical play, could overcome Canada’s impressive combination of defense and offense.

Shooting was a concern for the Canadians when Jamal Murray withdrew from the tournament, and it reared its ugly head against Brazil. The Brazilians were able to throw multiple bodies at SGA while the rest of the team (minus Lu Dort) launched up brick after brick. Spain will have seen that film and could do the same.

The other friction point for Canada was Kelly Olynyk’s defense. Olynyk ended up isolated against some of Brazil's quicker players — including Golden State Warriors draft pick Gui Santos — who would blow by Kelly and parade largely uncontested to the hoop. While I’m not expecting Olynyk to magically improve his lateral quickness, I do expect better backside help from Canada if Spain force the issue in a similar way.

The total for Sunday’s tilt suggests a more conservative scoring environment, coming in at a modest 167.5. For what it’s worth, Canada and Spain played to an 85-80 score in the exhibition preceding the World Cup, and it only got that high because Barrett helped force overtime in the fading moments of regulation.

Canada’s defensive force works to wear down the opposition, which is in part why they’ve gone from conceding early ground in most games to pulling ahead in the second half. That might not be as effective against Spain's legit 12-man rotation. While the Spaniards might shorten the leash somewhat in a do-or-die game, they’re still likely to be more resistant to Canada’s style of victory through attrition basketball. 

This is going to have Game 7 vibes, and those types of games almost always favor defense over offense. I’d slightly lean Under at this number.

Canada vs Spain game info

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