Canada vs USA Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Americans Swarm SGA in Bronze Medal Game

When the brackets were announced for the knockout rounds of the 2023 FIBA World Cup, there was a natural excitement about the potential of a USA vs. Canada Gold Medal game, as they would not see each other until a possible final.

While we'll still get a version of that game on Sunday, they’ll be playing for bronze after falling in the semifinals on Friday.

While anything short of gold is considered a failure for Team USA, they will still be motivated to avoid being one of the few American teams in any international tournament to drop three separate games in one run. And though Canada raised their ambitions over the course of their run, an Olympic berth and a medal have been Canada’s goals since they entered the tournament.

In particular, our FIBA World Cup picks and predictions for the Bronze Medal game between the USA and Canada think the American side will prove a stiff challenge for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Canada vs USA odds

Canada		USA
+7 (-110)	Spread	-7 (-110)
+225	Moneyline	-278
Over 190.5 (-110)	Total	Under 190.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings on September 10, 2023.

Canada vs USA picks and predictions

If it wasn’t already clear after the previous NBA season, the FIBA World Cup has seen Shai Gilgeous-Alexander further cement himself as one of the very best players in the world. SGA is averaging 23.6 points per game on a cool 64.2% clip from two and 87.3% from the foul line.

He’s been the clear best player for one of the tournament's best teams, and though Canada fell short of their ultimate goal, their fans are salivating over the prospect of a united SGA and Jamal Murray backcourt heading into the Paris Olympics.

But with the Bronze Medal game against the United States on Sunday, I’m expecting a more subdued SGA experience than we’ve rightly come to expect. Shai has had some gargantuan performances in the tournament, including dropping 30 on Spain and then 31 on Slovenia in back-to-back games. 

And yet the wear and tear of the World Cup schedule appears to be finally having an impact on Shai. In Canada’s semifinal against Serbia, Shai looked gassed for large stretches of the game. One of the pitfalls of not being reliant on 3-point shooting is that Shai ends up on his back a lot on drives. While he’s deadly inside 15 feet, he also takes a beating for it. 

Schedule makers have done SGA no favors, as Canada have played one of the more grueling schedules both in terms of game frequency and level of competition throughout the World Cup. That culminated last game, as SGA scored just 15 points, going 4-8 from the field. Serbia has been a great defensive team throughout the tournament, but in terms of one-on-one defenders, they don’t hold a candle to what Team USA can bring.

Either Mikal Bridges or Anthony Edwards would be the best on-ball defenders that Shai has faced in the World Cup, and that’s before considering Team USA might simply double him.

During Team USA’s camp in Las Vegas, they practiced against the Select Team in an effort to prepare for different kinds of matchups they’d face deep in the tournament. One such drill was having Cade Cunningham do a Luka Doncic impression, and Team USA drilled how to properly collapse the floor against the ball-dominant Slovenian superstar. The same principles largely apply to defending Shai, and Canada’s shooting has been shaky at times during the World Cup. 

SGA's performance throughout the tournament has been exceptional. However, I believe that facing a combination of high-quality defenders and the wear and tear he's endured in getting Canada to this stage will see him go Under this number.

My best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 26.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)

Canada vs USA same-game parlay

Canada +7.5 (-120)

Over 190.5 (-110)

Dillon Brooks 10+ points (-255)

+285 at DraftKings

SGA’s points prop isn’t available at a favorable number for inclusion in a single-game parlay, so instead the trio I’m going with is Canada +7.5, Over 190.5 total points, and Dillon Brooks to record 10+ points.

The line has moved to favor Team USA more since opening, so I like getting a slight edge there as I think this should be a competitive game. Team USA have the bodies to throw at Shai, but Canada possesses the necessary athletes to slow down America’s best scorers and bully them on the perimeter. 

Both teams also have clear advantages on offense that suggest the total will be something like the game Team USA just played against Germany, which finished at 113-111.

For his part, Brooks has been probably Canada’s second-best player in the tournament. Brooks’ defense never wavers, but it’s been his offense, and particularly his 3-point shooting that has surprised me. He’s scored 14 points or more in three straight games and is shooting 50% from deep in the tournament.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Canada vs USA spread and Over/Under analysis

This line opened between -6 and -6.5 in favor of Team USA, but money coming in on the favorite has seen that move as high as -7.5 at the time of writing.

Rebounding continues to be the Achilles heel for Team USA, and it hurt them against Germany’s relative depth of forwards and bigs. However, Canada doesn’t have the kind of back-to-the-basket bruisers that can really make the USA pay — either in the post or on the glass.

What Canada does have is the best player in the game. No rostered Team USA player has ever made any All-NBA team (remarkable when you really consider it) while Canada are spearheaded by SGA, who was a First-Team selection just this past season. SGA is a score-first player, but he’s fundamentally not a selfish one. 

While SGA was held to just 15 points due to Serbian pressure last game, he came through with nine assists in turn. So, while the USA will have the depth, depth does not typically win out in a contest like this. 

Other international teams (like Spain for example) make depth work because they have a level of connectivity and chemistry that allows them to reach into their bench and get contributions from everywhere. While a surplus of depth might not be a point in the USA’s favor, Canada’s lack of depth outside the starting lineup has been an issue, as foul woes have been one of their consistent challenges in the tournament. Brooks is likely to draw the Edwards assignment, and whether or not he can stay on the floor might determine if Canada can cover or win this game.

The total for the FIBA World Cup Bronze Medal Game opened at 189 and has risen as high as 190.5 at some sportsbooks. That is one of the highest totals in the tournament and speaks to the ability that both teams have to break down the opposing team’s defense.

The USA have struggled with the true giants around the basket during the tournament, and Canada are experiencing similar shortcomings on defense. The paint should be open for the Americans, and their ability to survive foul trouble means their offense shouldn’t experience a drop-off, even if Canada uses their muscle to feast at the line.

Team USA’s defensive weakness (other than finishing possessions with a board) has largely been the vulnerability of their guards. Austin Reaves, Jalen Brunson, and Tyrese Haliburton have all at times had incredible scoring outings, but they’ve been routinely targeted on the other side of the ball as well.

Meanwhile, Canada possesses several options, including SGA, RJ Barrett, Brooks, and Lu Dort, who can employ post-up moves, power through, or exert their strength against Team USA's backcourt.

Canada vs USA game info

Canada vs USA key injuries

Canada: No key injuries to report.
USA: Brandon Ingram (Questionable). 

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