Germany vs Serbia Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Bogdanovic Asserts Himself in Gold Medal Game

When American track and field star Noah Lyles recently opined that it was ridiculous for winners of the Larry O’Brien to call themselves world champions, NBA personalities largely put him on blast.

However, with Team USA failing to reach the Gold Medal game yet again, the world has never seemed quite so big.

The NBA is not FIBA, nor is it the world, and so it will be a showdown between the two best teams in this year’s World Cup — Germany and Serbia — that decides who takes home gold.

Our FIBA World Cup betting picks and predictions for the Gold Medal game between Germany and Serbia believe the Balkan nation has the advantage on Sunday, September 10.

Germany vs Serbia odds

Germany		Serbia
-1 (-105)	Spread	+1 (-115)
-110	Moneyline	-110
Over 175 (-108)	Total	Under 175 (-108)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on September 10, 2023.

Germany vs Serbia picks and predictions

It may not be the World Cup Final many wanted, but it’s unquestionable that Germany and Serbia deserve to be here. And given the quality of Germany’s victory over the USA and Serbia’s over Canada, there’s good reason to believe this will be one of the better World Cup Finals in recent memory.

It’s honestly hard to parse who between Germany and Serbia is coming off the more impressive win. While Germany largely controlled their game against Team USA, and they no doubt slayed the greater dragon between the two, the way in which Serbia won was damn impressive.

Serbia beat the Canadians in every aspect of the game. They played with more pace, they trusted the pass more, they hit tough shots, and they created better ones. They never relinquished their early lead, and even surprised the Canucks with a press in the fourth quarter that so flummoxed the Canadian side they never fully recovered their composure.

It’s even more amazing to think about the quality of Serbia’s program when you consider that they’re missing the best player in the world in Nikola Jokic, as well as 2021 Euroleague MVP Vasilije Mici?. They are set to be an absolute monster in the Paris Olympics, but those absences led some (including yours truly) to underestimate what they would be capable of during this tournament.

No more. After seeing how thoroughly Serbia picked apart Canada’s best-in-class defense, frustrating Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and pressing all the rights buttons on offense, I’m a believer. While Germany is the favorite for Sunday’s game, I’d have Serbia as the favorite in this matchup, so I’m going with an alternate spread of -2.5 to get some plus-money value (+110).

While Germany’s victory over Team USA was incredible, it was built on a series of matchup advantages that will not translate against Serbia. Germany beat the Americans with size before leveraging Andreas Obst’s all-world caliber shooting and playmaking. But in contrast to the US, the Serbians match up with the Germans in size at every position, and tower over some of their wings and guards.

And when I analyze any win-or-go-home style game, I do like to consider which side has the best player, as they often exert a disproportionate influence on the final result. To me, that again favors Serbia. 

While Luka Doncic and SGA had impressive runs during the World Cup, it’s going to be mighty difficult to leave Bogdan Bogdanovic off the All-Tournament team when all is said and done. The Serbian guard has been everything for his squad while still playing within himself and not dominating the ball. 

He’s scoring 19.4 points per game to go along with 4.6 assists, on 65% shooting from two, 40.4% from three, and 84.4% from the foul line. That’s good enough for a 67.27% true shooting percentage, nearly 10 points above the NBA average, in a smaller court environment that in theory makes it more difficult to score. And whenever Serbia has absolutely needed a bucket, he’s come through in style.

Germany doesn’t have a great one-on-one defender or Bogey, and while they did a nice job against Edwards and company, the kind of off-ball movement Bogdan makes a living off of as the lead dog for Serbia is much more complex and difficult to defend. Schroder might hold up okay one one-on-one at times, or at least until help arrives, but asking him to fight through multiple screens per possession is a losing recipe.

After beating Team USA Germany have every right to consider themselves the favorite, but I believe Serbia’s size and style of play will see them win convincingly on Sunday.

My best bet: Serbia alt-spread -2.5 (+110 at DraftKings)

Germany vs Serbia same-game parlay

Serbia -2.5 (+135)
Over 175.5 (-105)
Andreas Obst 2+ 3s (-215)

+500 at DraftKings

The nice thing about this particular same game parlay is that including Serbia’s alternate point spread actually gets you a significant value boost, going from the default +110 offering to +135. To pair with that I’m taking the Over at 175.5 and Andreas Obst to hit 2+ threes. 

175.5 seems on the low side considering that Serbia has been the best offense in the World Cup and Germany just dropped 113 points on Team USA. Serbia’s emphasis on transition and efficiency around the basket should prove effective against Germany’s bigs.

Obst was one of the heroes of Germany’s Semi-Final victory, and his ability to shoot off screens will be a cornerstone of their attack yet again. He’s a career 41.3% shooter from deep, and he’s hit 45.7% on five attempts per game in the World Cup.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Germany vs Serbia spread and Over/Under analysis

Germany opened as -1.5-point favorites over Serbia, and that line has seen little fluctuation since. Germany has a chance to complete the World Cup as an undefeated champion, and paired with a win over the United States in the Semi-Final, would make their run one of the most special in all of men’s FIBA tournament history.

But Serbia is well positioned to upset Germany here. They have size and finesse from the big man spots all the way down to the perimeter. They don’t play any small guards and they only have a single player on the roster 6-foot-4 or smaller. Bogdanovic is more often than not the smallest player on the floor at 6-foot-5, and he’s not easily pushed around. Germany will match up decently in the frontcourt, but Serbia’s ability to press and overpower Germany’s guards should prove decisive.

The total for Germany vs. Serbia has come in between 174 and 175.5 at most sportsbooks. That seems a little on the low side to me given how in sync these squads have been on the offensive end.

Serbia is one of the best transition basketball teams we’ve seen at the World Cup in quite some time, and they’ve blitzed every opponent they’ve faced on the break so far. Even Canada, who theoretically were well-disposed roster-wise to contain Serbia on the run found themselves caught off guard repeatedly. That emphasis on transition, and a knack for nifty touch passes that lead to open layups, are a few of the reasons the Serbian offense has seemed unstoppable. 

Outside of Franz Wagner, Germany's bigs are not the fleetest of foot, and they will struggle if Serbia is able to play defense to offense and make this a track meet. Germany’s connectivity will certainly give them chances to score in turn, to me it’s whether Franz can create mismatches on a consistent basis. If he can do that and put Serbia in rotation this game could see offensive fireworks going both ways.

Germany vs Serbia game info

Germany vs Serbia key injuries

Germany: None to report.
Serbia: None to report.

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