Jesse “Bam” Rodriguez vs. Juan Francisco Estrada face off for the WBC super flyweight title as our premier boxing attraction on June 29, taking place at the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona.
This is one of the best fights of the summer, pitting the young and hungry Rodriguez against a veteran Estrada who will have a monstrous task of keeping his title around his waist.
Boxing odds have Rodriguez as a -475 favorite and Estrada as a +350 underdog. Here are my best free Rodriguez vs. Estrada predictions.
Estrada vs Rodriguez prediction and pick
- My fight prediction
Rodriguez ML (-475 at DraftKings) - My best bet
Rodriguez by decision (+110 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
When it comes to the current pound-for-pound situation in boxing, "Bam" Rodriguez doesn't get brought up enough.
Rodriguez is one of the most versatile fighters in the lower weight classes, with a toolkit second only to Naoya Inoue. He's now moving up in weight again to face Estrada, a future first-ballot Hall of Famer and arguably a generational great. Estrada remains one of the best fighters in the super flyweight division, but time is not on his side against the young and hungry Rodriguez.
It's been 18 months since Estrada concluded his storied rivalry with Roman Gonzalez, securing a clear decision victory to lead their trilogy 2-1. Estrada has also endured grueling bouts with Cuadras and Sor Rungvisai over the years (two fighters Rodriguez beat handily).
Now 34, Estrada's age, inactivity, and the wear of a long career make it doubtful he can do much besides put up a decent fight against a younger fighter at the peak of his power, with the kind of style older fighters typically avoid.
Rodriguez can punch and box, has excellent footwork and defense, and possesses a solid chin. Though Estrada is tough and won't go quietly, this is shaping up to be Rodriguez's night. We should see the best from both men in what promises to be a savage fight once they move past the initial feeling-out phase.
However, "Bam's" youthful advantages and refined skills will likely help him secure the biggest win of his young career.
Pick: Rodriguez moneyline (-475 at DraftKings)
Best best analysis
We have a reigning and defending champion in the twilight of his career, still serviceable and very good, facing off against a fighter carving his way to greatness in his own right. Though Estrada can't make up a nine-year age differential or revitalize himself after 47 professional fights, he can gut this out and make things very tough for Rodriguez.
Rodriguez will have to earn every punch, and Estrada has years of experience and tricks he can utilize to stay competitive and potentially threaten the outcome.
I don't see this as a fight where one fighter can overpower another. Both have good chins and conditioning, which means we'll get a sustained 12 rounds of action in what could be one of the year's best fights.
Pick: Rodriguez by decision (+110 at DraftKings)
Juan Francisco Estrada vs Jesse Rodriguez odds
| Method of victory | Juan Francisco Estrada | Jesse Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | +350 | -475 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +1,200 | +160 |
| Win by points or decision | +550 | +110 |
| Draw | +1,600 | +1,600 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 6-29.
Juan Francisco Estrada vs Jesse Rodriguez tale of the tape
| Juan Francisco Estrada | Jesse Rodriguez | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 24 |
| 5-foot-4 | Height | 5-foot-4 |
| 115 pounds | Weight | 115 pounds |
| 66 inches | Reach | 67 inches |
| 44-3 (28 KOs) | Record | 19-0 (12 KOs) |
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
