Joe Burrow had his first real “rookie game” in a 27-3 blasting at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday. Now, the No. 1 overall pick travels for the second straight week, to take on the Indianapolis Colts and their stingy stop unit in Week 6.
The NFL betting odds are giving Burrow and the Bengals eight points on the road, facing a Colts team that may have been exposed in a 32-23 loss at Cleveland in Week 5.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Bengals vs. Colts on October 18.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts betting preview
Weather
Weather will not be a factor at indoor Lucas Oil Stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions for other matchups with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Bengals: John Ross WR (Out), D.J. Reader DT (Out), Auden Tate WR (Out).
Colts: Mo Alie-Cox TE (Out), Darius Leonard LB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as home favorites. Find more NFL betting trends for Bengals vs. Colts.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
This spread hit the board at 9.5 points and was immediately bet down with action on Cincinnati, slimming it as much as two points as of Monday afternoon.
It does seem a bit improbable for the Colts offense to muster enough points to cover the near double-digit chalk. And even at Indianapolis -7.5, you question if Philip Rivers and this Colts attack can get over that hump after managing just 19 and 23 points in the past two outings.
However, that pop-gun production came on the road, and the Colts are a different beast on their fast indoor track. Indianapolis has scored 36 and 28 points in home wins over the Jets and Vikings, picking up 8.7 yards per pass attempt compared to 7.2 on the road and posing a much stronger threat inside the red zone (66.67 TD% at home vs. 30.77 TD% on the road).
The Bengals are playing their second-straight road contest, coming off an all-out ass whoopin’ in Baltimore. Cincinnati couldn’t protect Burrow, who was sacked seven times, and couldn’t keep the Ravens defense honest with a lackluster rushing game leaning on the banged-up legs of Joe Mixon, who topped out at seven yards as his longest run.
The Bengals are at their best when Mixon can move the chains on the ground, taking pressure off Joe Burrow and allowing Zac Taylor’s play action to work its magic. But now, Cincy slides into Indy to face one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL – allowing only 3.6 yards per carry – and Burrow could be without two of his top targets in A.J. Green and John Ross (both questionable).
This Colts defense is extremely dangerous, forcing nine interceptions over the past four outings. Burrow has shown his rookie stripes in recent weeks, with one TD to two INTs the past two games after a 5-to-1 TD-to-INT count in the opening three weeks. Those takeaways will equal the extra possessions needed for Indianapolis to cover this spread.
PREDICTION: Indianapolis -7.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
When it comes to Over/Under totals in 2020, 46.5 points is pretty low.
Rivers’ turnover troubles are holding back this Indianapolis offense, but with the Bengals coming to town, the Colts could simplify things and lean on the run more than they have been. Indianapolis handed off only 18 times against Cleveland on Sunday, forced to abandon the run after falling behind on the scoreboard in the third quarter. But this playbook is among the most run-heavy in the NFL, rushing on more than 49 percent of its snaps over the past three games.
Cincinnati’s defense has been mowed over by rival rushers in recent weeks, allowing Baltimore to bust free for 161 gains on the ground in Week 5, while allowing 5.2 yards per carry – third highest in the league – on the season. The Colts, who average 31:55 in time of possession, could drag this one out and really exploit a road-weary defense coming off a physical matchup with the Ravens the weekend before.
PREDICTION: Under 46.5 (-110)
First Quarter Pick
Despite a rough day versus a dynamic Cleveland offense, the Colts still hold claim to the top defense in the NFL in terms of yards allowed. Admittedly, the Colts have had their statistics inflated due to softer opponents, but the Bengals are no Browns – sitting 26th in offensive DVOA at Football Outsiders.
Indianapolis has set the tone early, allowing an average of only 2.6 points per first quarter through five games, including two shutout opening frames in that span. The Colts have allowed only one touchdown in the first 15 minutes and take on a Cincinnati side that hasn’t scored a TD in the first quarter since Week 1, averaging a mere 2.6 points for in those opening frames.
PREDICTION: First quarter Under 9.5 (-110)
Bengals vs Colts betting card
- Indianapolis -7.5 (-110)
- Under 46.5 (-110)
- First quarter Under 9.5 (-110)
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