The Pittsburgh Steelers almost let one get away last week but pulled out the win (and the cover) to remain undefeated at 4-0. This week we get a juicy game for NFL betting, as they host divisional rival Cleveland Browns, who are riding a four-game winning streak.
NFL odds saw Pittsburgh as a four-point favorite on Sunday night, moved them to -4.5 and now that line has pushed down to a flat -3.5. Combined, both teams are 5-1 ATS over each of their last three games. The Browns and Steelers have also been profitable on the Over, going a combined 7-2 O/U on the year and they face a total that opened at 50 but has ticked up to 51.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Browns vs. Steelers on October 18 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers betting preview
Weather
The forecast for Pittsburgh is calling for parly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-60s with winds blowing south up to 15 mph on Sunday. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Browns: Wyatt Teller G (Out), Ronnie Harrison Jr. S (Out), Karl Joseph S (Out), Greedy Williams DB (Out), Jacob Phillips LB (Out).
Steelers: David DeCastro G (Out), Diontae Johnson WR (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in the Browns' last four games following a straight-up win. Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Steelers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Steelers looked like they were going to breeze to a seven-point cover last week versus a banged-up Eagles team but it took a TD in their clock-killing drive to do it. It was a sweaty one.
The Steelers were coming off a "bye" and were the No. 1 DVOA defense but still allowed Philly to put up 29 points and put together four drives of 75 yards or more. The Steelers could also be without their leading target-getter in WR Diontae Johnson and two of their starting offensive linemen Sunday versus the Browns.
Cleveland is running hot, having won four straight and covering three in a row. They have scored at least 32 points in each of those wins, which include two against Top-4 DVOA defenses. The Cleveland offense is a much better unit than that of the Eagles and no team is better at forcing turnovers than the Browns, as they are averaging 2.4 takeaways on the year and 3.3 over their last three.
Getting more than a field goal in a divisional game with two good teams? We will take the points.
PREDICTION: Cleveland +3.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Cleveland has been in shootout-mode since Week 2 as the averaged combined score of its past four games is 65.25 points. Since Week 2, the Browns are converting nearly 50 percent of their third downs, averaging 4.3 TDs and scoring TDs in the red zone on over 70 percent of their trips. Pittsburgh’s defense is legit, but they showed they aren’t perfect last week and can give up big plays and points.
The Pittsburgh offense ranks 16th in passing and 26th in the run game and will have a better time passing against a Browns’ secondary that is giving up nearly 300 yards a game (29th). Ben Roethlisberger could also be in for a big game as the Browns are allowing 2.4 passing TDs a game this year, which is the second-most in the league.
Cleveland has already topped a total of 50-plus points this year but Week 6’s 51 points in the highest that this divisional match has ever seen.
PREDICTION: Over 51 (-110)
Total touchdowns pick
Pittsburgh and Cleveland are both in the Top 10 in TDs scored per game this year and combined, they are averaging 7.3 touchdowns per contest. No other matchup in Week 6 has a higher TD average. Pittsburgh scored in each of their red-zone trips at home last week while Cleveland has been one of the better teams in red-zone TD percentage in 2020.
It may be a divisional game, but points are expected on Sunday at Heinz Field and both of these clubs can put it in the end zone. They don’t like to kick it as they rank in the Bottom 5 in field goals attempted. We are drinking some juice but have no problem doing it.
PREDICTION: Over 5.5 total touchdowns (-130)
Browns vs Steelers betting card
- Cleveland +3.5 (-110)
- Over 51 (-110)
- Over 5.5 total touchdowns (-130)
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