The biggest threat to your NFL betting picks is fandom.
We all have favorite teams, but when that adoration gets in the way of clear thinking, bias comes with a price tag.
Me, I fell out of love with the Dallas Cowboys a while ago.
I may have drawers full of shirts with the Star on them and should Dallas ever win another Super Bowl, I have a dusty bottle of champagne in the fridge to celebrate. But when it comes to my NFL picks and predictions for Week 4 (more affectionately known as NFL Underdogs) fandom is dead.
Cleveland Browns (+4.5) vs Dallas Cowboys pick
My deep-rooted devotion to the Dallas Cowboys is not clouding my judgment on this one.
The Cowboys defense is in trouble. This front seven could be a Madden MUT lineup with all that star power but hasn’t caused enough chaos (outside of Aldon Smith) to hide the holes in the secondary. Big D won’t know what to do against a Browns offense that could be very, very special.
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt provide four relentless quarters of headaches on the ground and Week 4 could be the week when we see Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. live up to the hype. Dallas ranks 24th in passing defense DVOA, is missing bodies in the secondary, and without constant pressure on Baker, this already-confused stop unit (struggling to learn Mike Nolan’s defensive rolodex) won’t be able to find their bearings.
And then there’s Myles Garrett. This guy is on the verge of supernova. The Cleveland defensive end can singlehandedly change the outcome of any game, especially when going up against an offensive line as screwed as the Cowboys. Dallas has rolled out five o-line combinations in its first three games and the anchor of the protection, Tyron Smith, has been slowed with a neck injury.
As a Cowboys fan, I’ll hope for the best. But as an NFL bettor, I’m investing in the worst. F#ck fandom.
PREDICTION: Cleveland +4.5 (-110)
Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders (+3) pick
When it was announced that Las Vegas was getting an NFL team, the sports bettor in me immediately went to any advantages the Raiders might have in their move to Sin City. We’re, of course, talking about the “Vegas Flu”.
This betting strategy has knocked around the sportsbooks for decades, with the thinking that visiting teams would get caught up in the bright lights of Vegas and be less-than-focused (and hydrated) for their upcoming contest. This strategy really gained traction with the NHL’s Vegas Golden Knights, who dominated visitors in their inaugural season in 2017-18.
Unfortunately, in the times of COVID-19, the “Vegas Flu” is a non-factor and a far less funny tongue-in-cheek joke. Stupid coronavirus, ruining everything.
The Buffalo Bills, who visit the Las Vegas Raiders this Sunday, could however fall victim to another potent betting strategy: the letdown spot.
Buffalo is 3-0 SU after a thrilling victory over the L.A. Rams at home last weekend, blowing a 28-3 lead in the third quarter and snatching victory back from the jaws of defeat with a last-second score to escape with a 35-32 win as 1.5-point home chalk.
That near loss and Buffalo’s other two wins – over the Dolphins and Jets (yawwwwwwwwn!)– have brought some blemishes to the surface for what was supposed to be one of the top stop units in the NFL. Those issues fit perfectly with Las Vegas’ offensive game plan, specifically the Raiders’ running attack and budding tight end Darren Waller.
The tall total suggests a shootout and this could come down to which team has the ball last.
PREDICTION: Las Vegas +3 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles (+7) vs San Francisco 49ers pick
I bet on the Giants getting 4.5 points at home versus the 49ers’ practice squad last weekend. And while, as a Cowboys fan, it’s tough to despise New York more than I normally do, I’ve found a deeper, darker pool of hatred for the G-Men after that piss-poor showing.
Perhaps the only team I dislike more than New York is Philadelphia. But I have faith in the Eagles this Sunday, making their way to the Bay Area to catch a cool touchdown from still-hobbled San Francisco in Week 4.
Philadelphia’s defense is far better than the Giants and has actually been the glue for this team through its bumpy 0-2-1 SU start to the season. Sure, the stop unit is allowing 29 points per game, but the Eagles’ offense is giving out free footballs like a mother-in-law dishing out life advice.
Peel back the points, and this Philly stop unit is fifth in total yards allowed, fifth in opponent third-down percentage, fourth in yards allowed per carry, and third in sacks with 12 on the year. Granted, the Eagles' competition haven't been the biggest offensive juggernauts, but neither is what’s left of the Niners.
PREDICTION: Philadelphia +7 (-110)
Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season: 3-6 ATS
NFL Week 4 Betting Card
- Cleveland +4.5 (-110)
- Las Vegas +3 (-110)
- Philadelphia +7 (-110)
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