Buccaneers vs Saints Week 1 picks and predictions

New Orleans' Drew Brees has long reigned as the king of NFC South quarterbacks. That mantle is now in question with Tom Brady a member of the rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Sep 9, 2020 • 06:38 ET

NFL bettors have been counting down to a Week 1 matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints like kids anticipate Christmas morning. **video

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers hit the board as 5-point underdogs in the Big Easy back in May, and early money bit on the new-looks Bucs, trimming that NFL betting spread to +3.5. New Orleans is the gatekeeper of the NFC South, but time is ticking on the Saints’ Super Bowl hopes, especially with Tampa Bay’s new additions.

We give our NFL free picks and predictions for Buccaneers vs. Saints on September 13.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints betting preview

Weather

This game will be played inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Be sure to monitor all gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.

Key Injuries

Buccaneers: Carlton Davis CB (Probable), Jason Pierre-Paul LB (Probable)
Saints: Marcus Davenport DE (Out), Cesar Ruiz OG (Out) Andrus Peat G (Probable), P.J. Williams DB (Out), Kiko Alonso LB (Out)
Find our latest NFL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Saints are 0-6 ATS in their last six Week 1 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Saints.

Against the spread (ATS) pick

The Saints are always a tempting bet at home, even more so as short favorites, but the Superdome just isn’t going to be the same in Week 1. And neither are the Bucs.

Tampa Bay is no longer shooting itself in the foot with a quarterback turning the ball over as much as Jameis Winston, which not only helps the offense keep the chains moving but allows one of the best defenses in the NFL to play like one.

The Bucs stop unit finished 14th in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders last year, despite opponents running more than 67 plays per game (third-most) and being forced back on the field following those turnovers far too often.

Brady has more offensive options than Rob Gronkowski has tank tops, including his all-time favorite target at tight end, another capable TE in O.J. Howard, slot receiver Chris Godwin, and veteran RBs in LeSean McCoy and Leonard Fournette. Oh, and Mike Evans (now active for Week 1).

Tom will win over the Tampa Bay faithful and the Bucs defense by running a methodical attack that chews up the clock – keeping the ball away from Drew Brees and Michael Thomas – and giving the stop unit proper downtime to slow the Saints.

PREDICTION: Tampa Bay +3.5 (-110)

 

Over/Under pick

As much hype as Brady and Brees bring into this late-afternoon attraction, the Buccaneers and Saints could have two of the better defenses in the NFC this season.

New Orleans has a leg up with familiarity on that side of the ball, with plenty of returning cogs to a defense that ranked second in DVOA and allowed just over 21 points per contest in 2019.

Tampa Bay’s defense gave up scores of 31 and 34 points to New Orleans last season but was decimated in the TOP battle in those two matchups, with the Saints possessing the football for a collective 70.5 minutes.

The total for this game opened at 49.5 and slimmed to 49 points over the summer. With the public likely pulling the trigger on the Over in this heavily-hyped late-afternoon matchup, Under fans will want to hold off and see how tall the total climbs by kickoff.

PREDICTION: Under 49 (-110)

Player prop pick

Brady has made superstars out of slot receivers, with Wes Welker and Julian Edelman putting up careers well beyond their scouting expectations.

Chris Godwin could be the next WR to blow up with Brady, coming off a 2019 season in which he caught 86 balls for 1,333 yards and nine touchdowns – 50 of those catches in the slot for 838 yards and five scores. Godwin is a bigger target than Brady’s previous slot options (6-foot-1) and has a lot more on the table in terms of skillset and abilities.

He put up big numbers against New Orleans last season, scoring three touchdowns and totaling 172 yards through the air in two games. With so many targets for the Saints defense to account for, we expect Godwin to find space and add some major yards after the catch.

PREDICTION: Chris Godwin Over 75.5 receiving yards (-110)

Buccaneers vs Saints betting card

  • Tampa Bay +3.5 (-110)
  • Under 49 (-110)
  • Chris Godwin Over 75.5 receiving yards (-110)
NFL Parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed this week’s NFL Buccaneers vs. Saints picks, you could win $59.58 on a $10 bet?

Use our NFL parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Where can I bet on the NFL?

You can bet on NFL odds at every online and casino sportsbooks, including NFL moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals and a ton of NFL prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on NFL odds in your area.

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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