Betting on NFL Draft props is wild.
It’s the only betting event on the calendar where the odds are almost solely based on rumors and hearsay.
NFL Draft markets also often don’t have very big limits, so it doesn’t take much for those numbers to move quickly. If you’re willing to put in the work, however, there is value to be found — even less than 24 hours from when the first selections are made.
Luckily, I’m here to do that work for you... With a handful of NFL Draft picks that you can still make right now for tonight's first round in Green Bay. Be sure to check out my NFL Mock Draft 3.0 as well ahead of tonight's festivities.
2025 NFL Draft predictions
- Tetairoa McMillian Top-10 pick
- Seahawks first player drafted: Wide Receiver
- Over 9.5 Big Ten players drafted Round 1
- Shedeur Sanders Over 21.5
- Armand Membou Under 6.5
- James Pearce Jr. Under 31.5
- Malaki Starks Under 23.5
- Matthew Golden Over 17.5
NFL Draft best bets for Round 1
Tetairoa McMillan Top 10 pick (+230 at DraftKings)
Tetairoa McMillan as a Top-10 pick is a hill I’m willing to die on, because people are overthinking the former Arizona Wildcat.
McMillan is unequivocally WR1 in this draft class, as he has all the tools to be a great wide receiver at the next level. Are people worried because he’s not a burner? Well... that doesn't really matter.
McMillan stands at 6-foot-4 with a massive wingspan and great hands. His in-air adjustments to the ball are football art and he’s underrated with the ball in his hands. Drake London and Tee Higgins are solid comparisons for him.
Plus, there's the actual draft, where he's been linked to a lot of teams. The host Green Bay Packers have been one of the more vocal teams about wanting McMillan, but they would have to make a big move up to grab him.
For teams already in the Top 10, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, Carolina Panthers, and New Orleans Saints all look like viable landing spots, while it sounds like his floor is the Dallas Cowboys, who pick at No. 12.
If teams want to move up to get McMillan, it will likely have to be in the Top 10. The NFL Draft odds for this were +450 earlier in the week but I still see value at the current price.
Seattle Seahawks position of first player drafted: Wide Receiver (+450 at DraftKings)
The Seattle Seahawks have had an interesting offseason.
Out went Geno Smith, and in came Sam Darnold to play quarterback.
The WR room also got a makeover, as they traded away DK Metcalf, released veteran Tyler Lockett, and then signed Cooper Kupp to take some of the pressure off Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the team’s new No. 1 wideout.
Now, let me be clear: It's still like the same old story for the Seahawks: They need better play from the offensive line, which is why that position is the -125 favorite to be their first selection tonight, but there's value in looking at Seattle to start their draft by adding another receiver.
Seahawks GM John Schneider proved he will take a wide receiver in the first round when he selected JSN with the 20th-overall pick in 2023, and giving Darnold as many weapons as possible is a good thing.
I also don't really trust Kupp as a WR2, as his production has fallen off a cliff in the last couple of years and he hasn’t played more than 12 games in each of the past three seasons.
There could be some intriguing options for the Seahawks at No. 18; Texas speedster Matthew Golden would be a great complement to Smith-Njigba, as would be JSN's former teammate at Ohio State, Emeka Egbuka.
Over 9.5 Big Ten Players Drafted in 1st Round (+120 at bet365)
This year’s NFL Draft is going to be similar to previous iterations in many ways, including the fact that it will be well represented by the SEC and Big Ten.
The Over/Under for SEC players selected in the first round is a whopping 14.5. The Big Ten isn’t far behind at 9.5 — and at plus money, I’m dreaming big for tonight.
Let’s start with the sure things: Abdul Carter, Mason Graham, Tyler Warren, Will Johnson, Colston Loveland, and Kenneth Grant all are near locks to go in Round 1.
Emeka Egbuka, Josh Simmons, and Derrick Harmon may not be locks, but they are close to it. All are favored to go in the first, with Egbuka having the shortest odds at -400.
That already brings us to nine.
Oregon offensive lineman Josh Conerly Jr. is regularly being mocked in the first round and is -250 to be selected in the first. And most recently, Ohio State running back TreVeyon Henderson is getting buzz to hear his name called on Thursday night and is now -125 for that to happen.
There are even guys like Donovan Jackson and Tyleik Williams who have the potential to be Round 1 picks. Plenty of reasons to like — and outs to cash — the Over 9.5 here.
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NFL Draft position props
All odds from bet365
🏈 Shedeur Sanders Over 21.5 (+130): Once thought to be a shoo-in for a Top-3 pick, there is plenty of chatter out there now that Sanders could fall out of the first round entirely.
🏈 Armand Membou Under 6.5 (+150): Membou has a chance to be the first tackle selected. The Raiders look like a viable landing spot, particularly if Jeanty goes before this. Membou is now the -110 favorite to be the No. 6 pick.
🏈 James Pearce Jr. Under 31.5 (+100): I’ve been a Pearce guy all season. I view him as a dominant pass rusher on one of the best defenses in the country. He goes much earlier than this number.
🏈 Malaki Starks Under 23.5 (+160): A guy who has been dinged by the “draft process,” but the tape don’t lie: This is a great player with an incredible football IQ, who was a lead on a Georgia defense that won back-to-back national championships.
🏈 Matthew Golden Over 17.5 (+130): This isn’t a knock on Golden. I just think the draft shakes out against him, while some teams could have guys like Emeka Egbuka and Luther Burden III ahead of him.
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