Oddsmakers are expecting a shootout on Monday Night Football in Week 4, with the highest NFL betting Over/Under of the week between the Atlanta Falcons and the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers are fresh off a 37-30 road win over the Saints and are 3-0 SU and ATS this year. They're installed as 7-point favorites against the Falcons who are still looking for their first win of the year after losing 30-26 to the Bears last week.
We break down the odds as we bring you our best free NFL picks and predictions for the Falcons vs Packers in Monday Night Football action on October 4 (8:15 p.m. ET).
Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers betting preview
Weather
It's expected to be a cool and clear night at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin, with temperatures dropping as low as 40 degrees and winds up to 20 miles per hour. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Falcons: Julio Jones WR (Probable), Kendall Sheffield CB (Questionable), Ricardo Allen S (Questionable), Kaleb McGary OT (Questionable), Takkarist McKinley DE (Questionable), Grady Jarrett DT (Questionable), Russell Gage WR (Questionable), AJ Terrell CB (Out), Younghoe Koo K (Out).
Packers: Kenny Clark DL (Questionable), Davante Adams WR (Out), Christian Kirksey LB (Doubtful), Rashad Gary DE (Questionable), Lane Taylor G (Out), Equanimious St. Brown WR (Out), Devin Funchess WR (Out), Allen Lazard WR (Out), Za'Darius Smith LB (Questionable), Marcedes Lewis TE (Questionable).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Packers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Packers offense has rolled this season, ranking first in the league in yards per play (6.9) and second in total yards with 459.7 per contest.
While Aaron Rodgers has been his usual terrific self, throwing for 887 yards and nine touchdowns with zero interceptions, their running game has also been on fire totaling 171.7 rushing yards per game on 5.5 yards per carry.
They should be able to shred a Falcons defense that has surrendered a whopping 463.3 yards and 4.7 touchdowns per game. While the Falcons offense, led by QB Matt Ryan, has looked good this year, they aren't quite as balanced as Green Bay and it will be difficult to keep pace if their stop-unit continues to get obliterated.
Another factor to consider is that Dan Quinn's squad has a tendency to play very poorly at the beginning of the year. The Falcons opened last season going 1-6 ATS, went 1-4 ATS in their first five games of 2018 and began the previous year going 2-6 ATS. With the Falcons already 1-2 ATS this year, fade them against Green Bay.
PREDICTION: Green Bay -7
Over/Under pick
The Over/Under for this game opened at 58, and as daunting as that number is, it's worth noting that since 2006, betting totals of 57.5 or higher have gone 7-1 O/U. That number has since dropped to 56.5, which doesn't seem too ambitious for a pair of teams that can light up the scoreboard and a Falcons defense that might be the worst in the league.
Green Bay leads the NFL in scoring with 40.7 points per game, while the Falcons are sixth with 30 ppg. On the other side of the ball, the Falcons are dead last in scoring defense, surrendering 36 ppg, while the Packers are last in yards per play allowed with 6.6.
With the Over cashing in each Atlanta's last four games and each of Green Bay's previous five contests, back it again on Monday night.
PREDICTION: Over 56.5 (-110)
First Quarter Bet
The Packers have looked great to start this season, but they haven't looked so sharp out of the gate in their actual games. Green Bay has surrendered 9.3 points per game in the opening quarter, the fourth-worst number in the NFL.
The Falcons have been lighting up the scoreboard early, ranking third in the league in first-quarter scoring with 9.7 ppg. With Atlanta's first-quarter team total set at just 3.5 and paying out at plus money, this is fantastic betting value.
PREDICTION: First quarter team total - Falcons Over 3.5 (+110)
Falcons vs Packers betting card
- Green Bay -7 (-110)
- Over 56.5 (-110)
- First quarter team total - Atlanta Over 3.5 (+110)
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