NFL betting is back and Week 4’s slate kicks off Thursday with the Jets and Broncos. We're busy looking into every market in search of value and great numbers — so you don't have to!
Today, we're stacking receiving plays in Miami, expecting a rookie QB to keep getting hit and backing a Panthers team that has their losing ways behind them.
We break down the best NFL team and player props and bring you our favorite free picks and predictions for Week 4.
(Just want the picks? Jump down to our Week 4 betting card.)
NFL Prop Picks for Sunday
Loading Up For Hawks and Fins
The Seahawks have dropped to 5.5-point favorites for their cross-country game in Miami. The Seattle defense is severely undermanned with injuries to DBs Jamal Adams, Quinton Dunbar, DL Bruce Irvin and LB Jordyn Brooks.
With Seattle’s offense proving unstoppable through three weeks and sporting a couple of banged-up RBs, Russell Wilson should be able to score at will, pushing the Dolphins’ offense to keep up. Taking the Over on any receiver in this match isn't a bad idea but some players’ totals are more exploitable than others.
Miami RB Myles Gaskin has taken over the Dolphins backfield and has seen 12 targets in the last week, averaging 30 yards receiving this year. His total sits at 25.5 yards. Miami WR DeVante Parker caught all five of his targets last week for 69 yards and will have had nine days of rest heading into a great matchup versus the Seattle secondary. His receiving total sits at 61.5 yards.
Finally, Seattle’s DK Metcalf has topped 90 yards receiving in each game this year and has long receptions of 62, 54 and 38 yards. Getting his receiving total at under 70 yards and longest reception at 25.5 seems a little silly.
PREDICTION: Myles Gaskin Over 25.5 receiving yards (-113), DeVante Parker Over 61.5 receiving yards (-115) and DK Metcalf Over 67.5 receiving yards (-115) and Over 25.5 yards longest reception (-115)
Green QBs Going Down
The Joe Burrow hype-train has died down a bit after his primetime performance two weeks ago. The Bengals' offensive line got torched last week by the Eagles as Burrow took eight sacks which were more than any other QB in Week 3. The rookie QB has taken 14 sacks so far this year, which paces the league.
Facing Burrow is Jacksonville QB Gardner Minshew. Also a very green quarterback, Minshew has taken 10 sacks this year which puts him in the Top 5 in the league. Minshew took four sacks last Thursday against a Miami pass rush that had only gotten to the QB three times in its previous two games.
Cincinnati and Jacksonville don’t have the league’s best sack rate but both of these O-lines and QBs are handing out sacks.
PREDICTION: Jacksonville/Cincinnati Over 5.5 sacks (-120)
Panthers On a Winning Streak
Heading into Week 3, many were on the Arizona bandwagon, but a Week 3 performance against the Lions let many down. This week, the Cards are dealing with a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball as they host the Carolina Panthers, who picked up their first win of the year and first in 11 games.
The Cardinals could be without three defensive players who are Top 10 in defensive snaps in DBs Dre Kirkpatrick (concussion) and Budda Baker (out) as well as LB Devon Kennard (questionable). Arizona has done well this year in the red zone, allowing TDs at a 30% rate (2nd-best), but regression is coming after posting a rate of 60% a year ago, and these injuries will not help.
Carolina moved the ball easily against a Chargers’ defense that kept Patrick Mahomes in check in the previous week. Last week, Teddy Bridgewater and the Panthers’ offense made four red-zone appearances in its first five offensive drives.
Without Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers will lean on the passing game in what could be another fast-paced matchup against the Cardinals. The Carolina defense also forced four turnovers last week, which will only help the Panthers putting up points.
PREDICTION: Carolina team total Over 23.5 (-110)
NFL Prop Picks for Saturday
Hopping on Henderson
Darrell Henderson will see the lion’s share of the snaps this week with Cam Akers out against the New York Giants. Henderson is coming off a career-high 21 touches last week in a game that Akers also missed. The Rams’ Week 4 starter has accumulated 195 yards rushing since Week 2. That works out to 5.1 yards per carry which puts Henderson Top 10 in yards per carry.
The Giants have fallen victim to the injury bug and their offense is very one-dimensional without RB Saquon Barkley. Opponents are running 32 times per game against the Giants this year, which is the fifth-highest mark in the league. Henderson is a low-center-of-gravity 210-pound back who will be asked to carry half of the Rams’ offense on Sunday.
PREDICTION: Darrell Henderson Over 69.5 rushing yards (-114)
Gallup Bowl
The Cleveland Browns are allowing over 250 yards passing per game through three weeks and enter Week 4 without CB Greedy Williams and possible CB Denzel Ward. Last week, both corners didn't play and Washington gained 121 yards on seven catches to its wideouts, good for 17.28 yards per reception. This week, Dallas’ No. 1 passing attack gets to blast a Browns’ shorthanded secondary.
Receiver Michael Gallup sits second on the team in receiving yards at 246 yards on 11 grabs. His 22.4 yards per reception ranks him third in the league. Gallup would see the easiest coverage on the outside if Ward sits. Points will be plenty in Dallas on Sunday and taking the highest-ceiling Dallas receiver with the lowest racing total seems like a valuable move.
PREDICTION: Michael Gallup Over 58.5 yards racing (-115)
Feeling the Foles
The Indianapolis Colts have played the Jaguars, Vikings and Jets to begin the season and have allowed just 132 yards passing per game. The strength of their opponents is the weakest in the league through three weeks but 132 yards against is the best mark in the league. This week, it could be a little more difficult for the Colts’ defense as they play their strongest opponent in the Nick Foles-led Bears, and will do so without No. 2 corner T.J. Carrie.
Carrie ranks as the league’s 11th-best cornerback in 2020 and will give way to second-year and amazing-name CB Rock Ya-Sin who graded as the league’s 55th-best CB in 2019. Chicago’s WR Allen Robinson finally saw some competent QB play last week as the receiver was peppered with balls with Foles under center. Robinson saw 13 targets which he turned into 10 catches for 123 yards and a score as the Bears’ offense seemed to be resurrected.
Chicago could be forced to pass the ball more as Indy is holding opponents to under 100 yards per game this year. Robinson has seen at least nine targets in each of his three games this year and has topped 70 yards receiving twice. Another big game could be in store for the Chicago receiver on Sunday.
PREDICTION: Allen Robinson Over 63.5 receiving yards (-120)
Raising Arizona
Last week, we cashed backing Arizona Cardinals receiver Andy Isabella. The 2019 second-round pick cleared his receiving total on Arizona’s second drive last week and has taken advantage of more snaps with WR Christian Kirk missing time.
This week, Isabella could see even more action with the league’s fastest-paced offense as Kirk and DeAndre Hopkins are game-time decisions heading into Sunday’s plus matchup versus the Carolina Panthers.
Carolina owns the 28th-ranked DVOA pass defense and gave up 330 passing yards to rookie QB Justin Herbert last week. Isabella’s markets aren’t widely available on Friday with Hopkins and Kirk’s availability in question, but if neither goes, we have no problem taking the Over on Isabella’s receiving total on anything under 61 yards as the No. 1 receiving option.
If Hopkins does suit up, that could possibly be an even better situation as Hopkins’ presence would give us a better number on Isabella’s receiving total.
PREDICTION: Andy Isabella Over <61 yards receiving if DeAndre Hopkins is ruled out.
NFL Prop Picks for Friday
Tonyan Footprint
Green Bay’s Davante Adams returned to practice in a limited fashion on Thursday, which is great news for the Packers’ passing game. Unfortunately, Week 3 star wideout Allen Lazard is out indefinitely after having surgery early this week. Lazard shredded the Saints’ defense last week for a 6/146/1. Adams’ return is a huge boost to Green Bay, but returning from a hamstring injury that forced him to miss Week 3 (and plenty of snaps in Week 2) is never an easy thing. Aaron Rodgers may need to find a second option in the passing game and that player could be tight end Robert Tonyan.
Without Adams in the lineup last week, Tonyan saw 63 percent of the snaps and caught all five of his targets for 50 yards and a score. The TD was his second in as many weeks. Fellow TE Josiah Deguara missed practice Thursday and hasn’t played since Week 1. The Packers take on the Falcons on Monday night and the Dirty Birds are allowing the second-most passing yards per game at 350. There will be ample opportunities for Tonyan to contribute with no Lazard, a banged-up Adams, and little competition for snaps.
PREDICTION: Robert Tonyan Over 28.5 yards receiving (-115)
Point of Kelce
The New England Patriots will have to pick their poison on Sunday versus the Kansas City Chiefs’ offense. After moving the ball with ease against the Ravens in primetime in Week 3, Andy Reid’s Chiefs will have to face one of the best matchup game-planning teams in New England.
The Patriots shut down the Raiders’ best receiver last week in Darren Waller, but Kansas City has too many weapons to try to eliminate. Another big advantage for Patrick Mahomes is that the Pats like to play more man-to-man coverage which could lead to some bigger plays than if they played zone.
TE Travis Kelce had a long reception of 29 yards last week and faces a defense that has given up some big pass plays over the last two weeks. In Week 3, Oakland had three receptions over 25 yards against New England, while Seattle scored three TDs on passes longer than 20 yards. New England isn’t as stingy as many believe as they own the 27th-worst DVOA pass defense.
PREDICTION: Travis Kelce Longest reception Over 21.5 yards (-114)
Keeping it Short in Chicago
Soldier Field may have the worst playing conditions come Sunday. On top of rain in the forecast, a heavy wind is also expected which could disrupt the passing games of the Bears and Colts.
Philip Rivers hasn’t topped 218 yards passing since Week 1 and is dealing with a plethora of injuries to his top receivers. The Colts’ defense has also not allowed an opponent to gain more than 28 yards on any single play.
The Bears lit up an Atlanta defense that's one more loss away from getting its head coach fired. But Indy will have a week to plan against Nick Foles and should pose a much better challenge. We’re banking against long plays in Chicago on Sunday and hope the weather can give us a hand as well.
PREDICTION: Longest TD scored Under 38.5 yards (-115)
All Aboard the MVP Train
Russell Wilson has tossed 14 TDs this season, with 10 of those coming in his last two games. He’s the front runner for the league’s MVP and that’s saying something after Patrick Mahomes’ performance last Monday. With Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, Wilson has been dropping dimes downfield all year, and Week 4 could be more of the same.
With a total of 54, scoring is expected between the Seahawks and the Dolphins. With the extensive injuries to Seattle’s secondary, Miami should be able to stay competitive and keep Wilson and the offense throwing the ball.
Miami held Gardner Minshew to zero passing TDs last Thursday on a short week but let Josh Allen toss four TDs back in Week 2. Getting Wilson at plus-money on Over 2.5 passing TDs seems like a gift after what he has already done in 2020.
PREDICTION: Russell Wilson Over 2.5 passing TDs (+140)
NFL Prop Picks for Thursday
Kicking it on Thursday Night
The Denver Broncos are going with undrafted free-agent QB Brett Rypien in Thursday’s snooze-fest versus the New York Jets. It will be a great test to see how bad this Jets team is as they sit in the bottom-three in most offensive categories. This game has the lowest total on the board in Week 4 at 40 and could be punt fest as both starting QBs are bottom of the barrel.
Each team sits in the bottom-five in red-zone TD percentage as points have been hard to come by for the winless Broncos and Jets. Denver and New York are scoring just three TDs a game through three weeks — combined. We’re fading the TDs and expecting these injured and skill-lacking offenses to stall out and go for three more often than not.
PREDICTION: DEN/NYJ first score a field goal (+115)
High Rollers on the Strip
The Buffalo Bills and L.A. Rams scored nine total touchdowns last week. The Bills offense has been putting up 434 yards per game and is scoring four TDs this year. Their defense has not performed as well as they did in 2019 and is allowing 3.5 TDs over the last two weeks. Buffalo safety Micah Hyde also exited last week’s game and is questionable for Sunday. Hyde has finished in the Top 10 at his position for the last three years and his absence would further hurt a Bills’ secondary that is allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game.
The Las Vegas Raiders are averaging Over three TDs a game, including last week’s two-TD performance against a good Patriots defense. Buffalo has been lit up by opposing TE’s in Weeks 1 and 2 and the Raiders will look to get TE Darren Waller back in the fold after the
Pats eliminated him in Week 3.
With a total of 53, plenty of points are expected, and with both teams scoring TDs in the red zone at over 61 percent, we’re expecting plenty of the six-point variety.
PREDICTION: BUF/LV Over 5.5 touchdowns (-130)
Jones Keeps on Rolling
Just like we’ve done in the previous two weeks, we’re tailing a QB who is 4-0 O/U on his rushing total. With the season-ending injury to Giants RB Saquon Barkley, New York has next to zero run game. This has made QB Daniel Jones the team's leading rusher through three weeks with 92 yards.
In Week 4, his rushing total has finally crept up but is still reasonable for a QB that will likely play from behind again and see lots of deep safety coverage, allowing for ample scamper opportunities.
PREDICTION: Daniel Jones Over 18.5 rushing yards (-116)
Starvin’ Marvin
Last year, the New Orleans Saints had the league’s 10th-best pass defense and allowed 6.5 yards per pass attempt. Through three games this year, NOLA has the 21st-ranked DVOA pass defense, giving up 7.1 yards per pass attempt and allowing the second-most passing TDs per game at 2.7.
CB Marshon Lattimore has been a liability (83% catch rate when targeted) and currently ranks as the 98th-best corner out of 109 graded at the position. With his teammate and fellow corner Janoris Jenkins grading positively and allowing a catch rate of 59%, teams are targeting Lattimore with positive results.
The Detroit Lions will face the Saints on Sunday in the Motor City with a healthy Kenny Golladay. Golladay’s presence means a drop in Marvin Jones’ receiving markets which is great news for his backers as Jones moves around between the outside and in the slot and should see Lattimore and Saints slot corner Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (11 receptions allowed on 13 times targeted).
So far this year, Jones hasn’t done much to increase his receiving total markets but with Detroit likely to pass against New Orleans’ tough run defense, the No. 2 receiver should see 4-7 targets in single coverage or zone with the Saints paying more attention to Golladay.
PREDICTION: Marvin Jones Over 48.5 receiving yards (-118)
NFL Week 4 prop betting card
- Myles Gaskin Over 25.5 receiving yards (-113) and DeVante Parker Over 61.5 receiving yards (-115)
- DK Metcalf Over 67.5 receiving yards (-115) and Over 25.5 yards longest reception (-115)
- Jacksonville/Cincinnati Over 5.5 sacks (-120)
- Carolina team total Over 23.5 (-110)
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- Darrell Henderson Over 69.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Michael Gallup Over 58.5 yards racing (-115)
- Allen Robinson Over 63.5 receiving yards (-120)
- Andy Isabella Over <61 yards receiving if DeAndre Hopkins is ruled out.
- -
- Robert Tonyan Over 28.5 yards receiving (-115)
- Travis Kelce Longest reception Over 21.5 yards (-114)
- Bears/Colts Longest TD scored Under 38.5 yards (-115)
- Russell Wilson Over 2.5 passing TDs (+140)
- -
- DEN/NYJ first score a field goal (+115)
- BUF/LV Over 5.5 touchdowns (-130)
- Daniel Jones Over 18.5 rushing yards (-116)
- Marvin Jones Over 48.5 receiving yards (-118)
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