It took three games, but sportsbooks - and the entire NBA betting world - are finally giving the Miami Heat their due.
After going into each of the first three games of their series with the Milwaukee Bucks as underdogs around the five-point range, the Heat are slight favorites in Game 4 on Sunday afternoon in Orlando. And after three straight victories as the underdog, Miami is on the verge of ousting the top seed in the Eastern Conference.
These are our favorite NBA free picks and predictions for Bucks vs. Heat Game 4 on Sept. 6.
Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat betting preview
Injuries
Milwaukee: Giannis Antetokounmpo SF (Questionable)
Miami: Kelly Olynyk C (Questionable)
Find our latest NBA injury reports for every game.
Betting Trend to Know
The Heat have covered each of their first seven postseason games. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Heat.
Against the spread pick
There's a huge status update that will swing the line in one direction or the other, which makes an ATS pick more difficult at this point. Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable for Game 4 after suffering an ankle injury in Friday's 115-100 defeat. Antetokounmpo hasn't been his usual elite self but is still averaging 22.7 points, 13.3 rebounds and 7.0 assists in the series.
With or without the DPOY (and likely MVP), the Bucks have a huge task ahead of them – one they've proven incapable of handling to this point. Milwaukee has allowed Miami to connect on 41 percent of their 3-point shots to date, and Giannis can't cover all five Miami starters – so don't expect the Heat to meet much resistance from beyond the arc in Game 4.
The Bucks have been outplayed for most of this series – and with Giannis a question mark to play (and likely not 100 percent even if he does), this series ends Sunday.
PREDICTION: Miami -2 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Unless Giannis pulls a Michael Jordan Flu/Poison Pizza Game out of his bag Sunday, the Bucks are going to have an incredibly hard time matching the Heat on offense. Giannis averages nearly 10 more points in the postseason than the next-closest Bucks scorer (Khris Middleton), and three players – Giannis included – account for 62.6 percent of the Milwaukee offense vs. Miami.
Middleton and Brook Lopez can't carry the offense by themselves, which means the Bucks will almost certainly need a stronger defensive effort versus Miami to have any hope of extending the series. Look for Milwaukee to slow the tempo, which means we should be in for a final score that comes in comfortably below the Game 4 total.
PREDICTION: Under 219 (-110)
Heat player pick
Milwaukee can point to several reasons why they find themselves on the brink of elimination, but one of the biggest is their inability to slow down Jimmy Butler. Big Game James 2.0 has been nothing short of sensational for Miami in the series, averaging 27.7 points on 56.1 percent shooting, piling up 33 made free throws so far.
Butler would love nothing more than to be the catalyst for a Heat sweep that would not only allow Miami to gain some critical extra rest awaiting the winner of the Toronto-Boston series, but to make a statement to the rest of the league that this team has the chops to get to the NBA Finals. We expect Butler to have a huge Game 4 and finish Over his point total.
PREDICTION: Jimmy Butler Over 21.5 points (-120)
Bucks vs Heat Betting Card
- Miami -2 (-110)
- Under 219 (-110)
- Jimmy Butler Over 21.5 points (-120)
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