The 2020 NFL season has seen record scoring through the first three weeks of action, manifesting itself in a 29-19 Over/Under NFL betting count heading into Week 4 – a 60 percent winning clip for Overs.
Oddsmakers are reacting to those results with some of the highest Over/Under numbers bettors have faced in 14 seasons - and perhaps ever - with the average total for Week 4 currently sitting at 49.93 points.
There are eight totals on the NFL odds board with numbers of 52 points or higher, including a 58-point Over/Under for Monday night's matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers. There are two other games with O/U numbers at 48 and 49 points, as of Wednesday morning.
(This average includes the last posted totals for Pittsburgh at Tennessee and Minnesota at Houston. Those games could be canceled or postponed due to positive COVID-19 tests in Tennessee).
NFL scoring on the rise
The 2020 schedule has produced an average of 51 points per outing through three weeks of games, well on pace to become the highest-scoring NFL season ever.
That offensive production is more than 4.2 points higher than the 46.8 average points scored in the 2013 season (the highest-scoring season in NFL history) and 4.4 points above the scoring average from the 2018 campaign (second highest), which also produced the previous highwater mark in terms of average betting total.
Betting biggest Over/Under totals
Week 11 of the 2018 season saw an average closing Over/Under total of 48.7 points, which was the highest average O/U going back to 2006 and, considering the rise in scoring over the past decade, likely boasted the tallest average total in NFL betting history (or as far back as those metrics were recorded). Those 13 Week 11 games in 2018 produced a collective 51.62 points per contests for a 7-6 Over/Under result on the week.
The second-highest weekly average Over/Under number came just last week, with Week 3’s 16 matchups touting a collective Over/Under of 48.19 points. Week 3 games cranked out an average of 52.19 points per game and Overs hit at a 9-7 pace.
The 2018 season also boasts the third-highest average closing Over/Under tally, with Week 10 of that year tagged with an average O/U of 48.0. The 14 games played that week saw a collective 48.57 points hit scoreboards and finished with an 8-6 Over/Under count.
Those three segmented weeks with average closing totals of 48 points or more combined for a 24-19 Over/Under record (56 percent Overs). But when you look deeper at weeks with tall totals, oddsmakers do swing the results to the Under in a big way.
Under value
With tall totals on the board, contrarian bettors will instinctually look for opportunities in the opposite direction, possibly finding value in the Under. And they’re not wrong.
The 10 NFL weeks with the highest average closing Over/Under numbers since 2006 (46.78 and higher) have a collective 59-85-1 Over/Under tally, with games playing Under the total at a 59 percent rate. The 145 games within those weeks had an average of 46.13 points scored – sliding Under the average total of 47.58 by just 1.45 points.
| Season | Week | Ave O/U | Ave Points | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Week 11 | 48.73 | 51.62 | 7-6 O/U |
| 2020 | Week 3 | 48.19 | 52.19 | 9-7 O/U |
| 2018 | Week 10 | 48.00 | 48.57 | 8-6 O/U |
| 2018 | Week 8 | 47.79 | 49.14 | 5-8 O/U |
| 2018 | Week 9 | 47.73 | 46.62 | 6-7 O/U |
| 2018 | Week 5 | 47.30 | 47.27 | 8-7 O/U |
| 2018 | Week 7 | 47.29 | 46.93 | 4-10 O/U |
| 2018 | Week 13 | 47.09 | 42.75 | 5-11 O/U |
| 2014 | Week 11 | 46.89 | 37.57 | 4-10 O/U |
| 2019 | Week 2 | 46.78 | 38.63 | 3-13 O/U |
And looking back at any week with an average closing total of 46.5 points or more, the Under remains profitable at a 55.56 percent clip going 84-105-1 Over/Under in the past 14 NFL season.
50-point totals
As mentioned above, eight NFL 2020 Week 4 games have Over/Under totals of 52 points or more.
Looking back at the historical data, NFL totals of 52 points or more have turned out a 92-89-2 Over/Under mark the past 14 seasons - 50.8 percent slight lean to the Over. However, rounding it out at total of 50-plus points, those Over/Under results slide to 176-184-3 (51.11 percent Unders).
But, when pulling out the tallest of totals, which we have in that 58-point number for Falcons at Packers on Monday Night Football, we see some value for steering into the skid and embracing those big Over/Unders. Going back to 2006, NFL totals of 57.5 points or more have finished 7-1 Over/Under with an average of 71.87 points scored in those eight contests.
NFL 2020 season
The 2020 NFL season is unlike any other, so give those early results some wiggle room. The precautions put around COVID-19 as well as the absence of a preseason adds a brand-new wrinkle to the opening three weeks of play.
The significant uptick in scoring could have many catalysts as well as a combination of things helping offenses and Over bettors early on.
Most stadiums are empty or holding limited numbers of fans, allowing offenses (specifically road teams) to make clear calls and audibles at the line of scrimmage and communicate easier with their unit.
Another theory is that games are being called differently by officials. Offensive penalties are down, with false starts showing up less and offensive holding seeing a significant downtick compared to previous years. On the other side of the ball, defensive pass interference is being called more frequently than past seasons.
Why is NFL scoring up 5.4 points per game vs. last season? It's simple. The game is being officiated way differently. pic.twitter.com/PrKWiifgq2
— Rob Pizzola (@robpizzola) September 29, 2020
Week 4 Over/Under totals
Week 4 is a crucial time in the NFL schedule. Teams are rounding into their identities and have had three regular-season results setting the tone, with offenses and defenses having worked off the rust of the offseason and presenting a much more accurate representation of their projected season-long efforts.
Since 2006, Week 4 has traditionally been a good week for Overs, with NFL games producing a 115-86-3 Over/Under mark in the fourth week of the schedule the past 14 years. That’s a 57.21 percent winning run for the Over.
Week 4 totals have boasted an average O/U number of 43.96 in that span with teams coming back with 46.19 points per game – clearing the average total by 2.23 points.
Where can I bet on the NFL?
Many online books and casinos offer bets on football odds and props. Check out the best sportsbooks available where you live.
