After losing 10 straight games, the Carolina Panthers have ripped off three wins in a row, all without RB Christian McCaffrey. On Sunday, they host the 4-1 Chicago Bears, who are coming in well-rested after beating the Buccaneers last Thursday night.
NFL odds have installed the Panthers as 2.5-point favorites but they can be found at -3 on some books, marking the first Carolina opened as a favorite for the first time since last December. Both teams are 3-2 ATS on the season and the total has been a firm 44.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Bears vs. Panthers on October 18 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers betting preview
Weather
Temperatures in the high 60s with light winds and mostly sunny skies are on tap for Charlotte on Sunday. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Bears: James Daniels G (Out), Deon Bush S (Out), Tarik Cohen RB (Out), Eddy Pineiro K (Out), John Jenkins (Questionable)
Panthers: Tyler Larsen C (Out), Curtis Samuel WR (Out), Yetur Gross-Matos DE (Out), Eli Apple CB (Out), Dennis Daley G (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in the Bears’ last six games versus a team with a winning record. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Panthers.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Chicago comes into Sunday’s game on extra rest and relatively healthy. The Bears picked up an outright win versus the Buccaneers last week but Tampa Bay was without some key offensive pieces and committed 11 total penalties for 100-plus yards. Nick Foles and the Chicago offense looked terrible up until halfway through the second quarter where the Bears scored just their second TD in over 50 minutes.
Since Foles replaced Mitch Trubisky, the Bears are averaging just 4.8 yards per play, which is a bottom-five mark. Foles has had to face two of the league’s best defenses in back-to-back weeks but will square off with Carolina’s 30th-rank DVOA defense in Week 6.
The Panthers are the favorites in a game for the first time since December 1, 2019, after covering and winning against three straight teams with a bottom-15 offense. In the three games without Christian McCaffrey — questionable for the matchup — Carolina is putting up 6.8 yards per play, which is Top 10 in the league. It could be a little more difficult for Carolina and Teddy Bridgewater against a healthy Chicago defense that hasn’t allowed more than 19 points since Week 3.
This could be another tight game for Chicago, as four of its five games this year have been settled by four points or less. We are taking the points.
PREDICTION: Chicago +3 (-115)
Over/Under pick
This game opened with the second-lowest total on the board at 44 points. Chicago is 1-4 O/U on totals of 45 or less this year while Carolina has seen just one game with a total lower than 47 points, a 21-16 win versus the Chargers.
The Bears’ run game has been nonexistent of late, having rushed for 63 yards over the last two weeks as David Montgomery is averaging just 2.9 yards per carry on the year. The run game has forced the Bears to pick up long third downs, which they have struggled with this year with a 33 percent conversion rate (30th).
TDs won’t be easy to come by for Bridgewater as the Chicago defense has yet to allow an opposing QB to toss for more than one TD this year through five games and only one QB (Week 1) has thrown for more than 255 yards against Khalil Mack & Co.
PREDICTION: Under 44 (-110)
Field goals prop pick
The Bears are only attempting two field goals a game, but their league-best red zone defense is forcing opponents to kick 3.6 FGs a game. Chicago’s defense is giving up TDs in just 36 percent of red zone defenses, which is six points better than the second-best team. Combined with its No. 2 third-down defense (33 percent) Chicago could be forcing Bridgewater and the Panthers to kick more often than they would like to on Sunday.
Cairo Santos has made all six of his kicks for Chicago from 40-yards or less and hasn’t missed a boot since Week 3. Panthers’ kicker Joey Slye is 10-for-11 this year and like Santos, hasn’t missed from inside the 40. Betting on field goals is a great prop bet to complement our Under.
PREDICTION: Over 3.5 total field goals (-108)
Bears vs Panthers betting card
- Chicago +3 (-115)
- Under 44 (-110)
- Over 3.5 total field goals (-108)
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