Was the Buffalo Bills’ late-game collapse and subsequent last-second Week 3 win the sign of a tough team, or something darker brewing for Bills Mafia?
The Bills are 3-point NFL betting favorites making their way to the desert to play the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4, still catching their breath after a thrilling victory over the L.A. Rams at home. The Raiders, on the other hand, are back in brand-new Allegiant Stadium ready to pick up where they last left off in Sin City.
These are our NFL free picks and predictions for Bills vs. Raiders on October 4.
Buffalo Bills vs Las Vegas Raiders betting preview
Weather
The desert heat won't be a factor at indoor Allegiant Stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions for other matchups with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Bills: Zack Moss RB (Out).
Raiders: Trent Brown T (Out), Henry Ruggs III (Out), Bryan Edwards WR (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Over is 9-3 in Bills’ last 12 games as road favorites. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Raiders.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Buffalo defense was the backbone of this team the past two seasons but has buckled and cracked in recent weeks, ranked 24th in defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders after sitting seventh and second in that metric the past two years.
The Bills nearly barfed up a 28-3 third-quarter lead to the Rams at home last weekend, watching L.A. score 29 second-half points in a comeback that wasn’t built all on big plays.
Buffalo was rolled by the Los Angeles rushing game, giving up 167 yards on the ground while also getting picked apart by L.A.’s tight ends, who combined for 74 yards on four total catches – despite Buffalo having top cover linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano back from injury.
Open up, Bills fans, because you’re going to get more of the same from Las Vegas. The Raiders bring a balanced playbook to the table in Week 4, with running back Josh Jacobs fifth in rushing in the NFL and tight end Darren Waller leading the Silver and Black in receiving.
It’s a prime letdown spot for Buffalo off such a big win combined with the crazy travel demands of COVID protocols for this 2,265-mile trek.
PREDICTION: Las Vegas +3 (-110)
Over/Under pick
This was one of my “Bet Now” totals when I released my weekly article Sunday night, just hours after the Week 4 odds hit the board. The total opened at 49.5 points and as per my analysis, quickly jumped up with one-sided action on the Over. This number is now sitting at 52.5 points.
Josh Allen has this Buffalo passing game clicking and takes to what should be a fast track inside, on the roll-in natural grass surface in Vegas. The Bills are second in passing and third in scoring, averaging 31 points through their first three outings.
Las Vegas has lots of work to do on defense, giving up scoring totals of 30 and 36 points to passive offensive attacks like Carolina and New England, while going Over the total in all three games this season.
The Raiders will try to overcome those defensive shortcomings with a budding passing playbook, as receivers gain chemistry with Derek Carr. Hunter Renfrow had a big game against the Patriots with Henry Ruggs III sidelined (and likely to be again in Week 4) and the ball was spread around to nine different receiving targets in the loss to New England.
PREDICTION: Over 52.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
Allen’s arm is so incredibly impressive, but his wheels aren’t bad either.
Oakland will try to keep everything in front of it and has done a good job defending against the deep ball through three games, allowing just six passing plays of 20 or more yards. When Allen looks long for guys like Stefon Diggs and it just isn’t there, his internal clock will start ticking and he’ll look to dash.
So far in 2020, Allen has just 22 yards on the ground but has scored two touchdowns. In three seasons in the pros, he’s found paydirt 19 times and led all QBs in rushing touchdowns the past two years. Buffalo’s goal-line options aren’t great, especially with TE Dawson Knox nursing a concussion, so Allen will continue to find his way into the end zone in Week 4.
PREDICTION: Josh Allen rushing touchdown (+140)
Bills vs Raiders betting card
- Las Vegas +3 (-110)
- Over 52.5 (-110)
- Josh Allen rushing touchdown (+140)
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