Two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL meet up in Week 6 with the Atlanta Falcons facing the Minnesota Vikings.
The 1-4 Vikings are fresh off a 27-26 loss to the Seahawks, but NFL betting odds have them installed as 3.5-point home favorites against the winless Falcons on Sunday.
Here are our free NFL picks and predictions for the Falcons vs. Vikings on Sunday, October 18 with kickoff at 1 p.m. ET.
Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings betting preview
Weather
This game will be held at the enclosed U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis so weather won't play a role. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions for other NFL Week 6 games with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Falcons: Jaylinn Hawkins S (Out), Marlon Davidson DT (Out), Takkarist McKinley DE (Out), Damontae Kazee S (Out).
Vikings: Troy Dye LB (Out), Dalvin Cook RB (Out), Danielle Hunter DE (Out), Pat Elflein G (Out), Dru Samia G (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these teams. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Vikings.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Falcons have once again started the season off very slowly under head coach Dan Quinn. After a 23-16 loss to the Panthers last Sunday, they are now 6-20 ATS in Weeks 1-7 since 2017. That led to Atlanta dismissing Quinn and GM Thomas Dimitroff following the latest loss, naming Raheem Morris the interim head coach.
Morris takes over an Atlanta squad that ranks second-last in the NFL in both total defense (allowing 446 yards per game) and scoring defense (32.2 points per game). And their offense, despite playing at a fast tempo, has been in the bottom half of the league, ranking 21st in scoring (24.4 ppg) and 20th in yards per play.
The Falcons are also dealing with uncertainty behind the scenes with owner Arthur Blank being non-committal about the future of long-time quarterback and former NFL MVP Matt Ryan.
Although the Vikings have just one win, they've been very competitive in each of their past three games, defeating the Texans and losing by a single point to the Seahawks and Titans on last-minute scores. While Minnesota may opt to sit star RB Dalvin Cook due to an adductor strain, backup Alexander Mattison has been impressive in relief. Fade the Falcons, who look like they don't have any fight left.
PREDICTION: Minnesota -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Both these squads rank towards the bottom of the league in defense. That, along with a pair of offenses that can occasionally light up the scoreboard, might have you favoring the Over, but we're not so sure.
The Falcons offense has really struggled in the last couple weeks, putting up just 16 points against two mediocre defenses in Green Bay and Carolina. They're also scoring touchdowns on just 52.9 percent of their trips into the red zone (26th in the league), so even if they move the ball up the field, there's no guarantee they'll come away with seven points.
When it comes to sustaining drives, both offenses struggle to convert on third down, with Minnesota 24th in the NFL in third-down conversion rate and the Falcons 23rd. Combine those factors with a run-first Vikings offense that plays at the fifth-slowest pace in the league and you have a total that seems a tad too high at 55.
PREDICTION: Under 55 (-110)
Player Prop
Just two years ago Todd Gurley was considered one of the best backs in the league but a degenerative knee issue sent him packing from Los Angeles in the offseason. He joined the Falcons on a one-year deal but has showed flashes of his previous All-Pro ability and is coming off a terrific performance against the Panthers where he ran for 121 yards on 14 carries.
The Over/Under on Gurley's rushing yards for Sunday is set at 58.5, a number he has surpassed in three of five contests this season. In the two games he went Under that number he still ran for 56 and 57 yards respectively.
Gurley should be in a good position to go Over 58.5 against a Vikings defense that's allowed 132.6 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry.
PREDICTION: Todd Gurley Over 58.5 rushing yards (-120)
Falcons vs Vikings betting card
- Minnesota -3.5 (-110)
- Under 55 (-110)
- Todd Gurley Over 58.5 rushing yards (-120)
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