The New Orleans Saints and Detroit Lions enter their Week 4 clash with identical 1-2 records, and it’s the Saints who seem a bit behind the curve after back-to-back losses to Green Bay and Las Vegas.
The NFL betting odds are giving New Orleans the nod, setting the visiting Saints as 5-point favorites in Motown. Detroit is coming off a huge road win at Arizona in Week 3, putting behind them a Week 1 collapse to Chicago and a Week 2 thrashing in Green Bay.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Saints vs. Lions on October 4.
New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions betting preview
Weather
This game will be played indoors at Ford Field. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions for other Week 4 NFL games with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Saints: Andrus Peat G (Out), Michael Thomas WR (Out), Jared Cook TE (Out), Marcus Davenport DE (Out), Janoris Jenkins CB (Out), Marshon Lattimore CB (Out).
Lions: C.J. Moore S (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 7-1 in the Lions’ last eight home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Lions.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Lions could easily be 2-1 entering this home game if not for a fourth-quarter collapse to the Bears in Week 1. However, those opening results can be packaged under the “preseason” label, leaving us to dissect Week 2 and 3 a little closer.
Detroit’s passing game could be building some momentum after Matt Stafford’s best performance of the season in Arizona. The veteran QB completed 71 percent of his passes for an average of eight yards per attempt, with two touchdowns and a clean sheet in the INT column. He prefers the cozy and quick confines of Ford Field, playing his best football at home, and Detroit is back in the Motor City after two straight road games.
The Saints defense has been gashed by opposing passers in their two most recent losses. New Orleans allowed 261 passing yards to the Raiders on Monday night in Week 2 and watched Aaron Rodgers pick apart the secondary for 271 yards through the air last Sunday night (without his top WR). What’s more, the Saints defense has been whistled for a league-high nine pass interference calls, handing over 183 free yards this season.
The Lions have one of the most underrated receiving corps in football when everyone is healthy and showed that with Kenny Golladay returning to action in Week 3. He and Marvin Jones combined for 108 yards and a touchdown against the Cardinals, while tight ends Jesse James and T.J. Hockenson joined forces for 81 yards and a score.
PREDICTION: Detroit +5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Drew Brees looked like himself in Week 3 after a bumpy start to 2020, completing over 80 percent of his passes for 288 yards and three touchdowns in a shootout with the Packers on Sunday Night Football. And that was without top target Michael Thomas, who could be back from a bum ankle in Week 4.
The Saints’ biggest weapon, however, is on the ground. Running back Alvin Kamara has been sensational through three games, totaling 153 yards rushing with an additional 285 yards receiving – fifth in the NFL…as a running back. Kamara has found paydirt six times and faces a Detroit stop unit that has struggled to wrangle RBs this season, allowing 439 yards rushing and 115 receiving to the position.
With a total of 54 points, it’s best to steer into the skid and embrace what could be a fun shootout.
PREDICTION: Over 54 (-110)
Player prop pick
We mentioned Detroit’s dynamic duo of tight ends in James and Hockenson above, and either one of these guys could be in for a big day against New Orleans. The Saints have been shredded by opposing tight ends this season, giving up an NFL-high 290 yards receiving to the position including four touchdowns to TEs.
Last Sunday, Green Bay’s trio of TEs Robert Tonyan, Jace Sternberger and Marcedes Lewis caught a collective nine passes for 104 total yards and two scores. The week before, Las Vegas TE Darren Waller decimated the Nola defense with 12 grabs for 105 yards and a touchdown.
While Jones is finally working his way into the offense, Hockenson remains the main tight end for Stafford and has been targeted 16 times through three games. We like him to go Over his receiving yards total this Sunday and a sprinkle on him finding the end zone is worth a wager.
PREDICTION: T.J. Hockenson Over 42.5 receiving yards (-120)
Saints vs Lions betting card
- Detroit +5 (-110)
- Over 54 (-110)
- T.J. Hockenson Over 42.5 receiving yards (-120)
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